TC Bertha

[Derek Ortt]

if it was off, it usually says off instead of flag.

Maybe the raw T number decreased too quickly and triggered it automatically

However, the latest imagery shows increased symmetry and organization

[Chacor]

CONSIDERING THE COMBINED FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF BERTHA...THERE IS ALREADY A 43%
CHANCE THAT BERMUDA WILL EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AS CONVEYED IN THE WIND
SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT ACCOMPANYING THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

[CrazyC83]

"Weakening Flag : ON"

Rut Ro Raggy! I think someone is about to fall apart again, if not slowly fading away already.

Any fall in the CI number will cause the weakening flag to trigger. It's not a good judge.

Edit:

It was also flagged for the potential of rapid dissipation.

"Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG"

Uhm, shouldn't that say "ON" if it was on, rather than "FLAG"?

If it says ON then the storm is self-destructing. That usually takes place in extreme shear.

[Sanibel]

West wobble is probably a bump as it hits the margin between the Highs.

[cycloneye]

Bertha continues to spike the ACE numbers for the 2008 season and for the individual stats.

Code: Select all

Season total
Storm Type ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arthur) Operational 0.3675
02L (Bertha) Operational 11.4875
Total  11.855


[jaxfladude]

Anyone for few weeks lull after Bertha(2008) is history ?

[Thunder44]

Latest satellite imagery shows some erosion of the the convection on the south and west quad. Some shear and dry air increasing again?

[HurricaneHunter914]

I don't think shear is the problem. Shear is relatively low right now at around 10-15 kts.

Probably dry air intrusion.

[bob rulz]

I don't think shear is the problem. Shear is relatively low right now at around 10-15 kts.

Probably dry air intrusion.

It would seem like that to me. There's a lot of dry air to its south and it looks like it's ingesting it to me.



I'm fairly new to this so correct me if I'm wrong.

[cheezyWXguy]

Is there an ERC going on in bertha right now? Her eye has contracted rapidly in the last few frames...anybody know the cause of it? Its not shear, and its not dry air, because convection has built back quite a bit

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Is there an ERC going on in bertha right now? Her eye has contracted rapidly in the last few frames...anybody know the cause of it? Its not shear, and its not dry air, because convection has built back quite a bit

Kind of looks like one to me.

[cheezyWXguy]

Is there an ERC going on in bertha right now? Her eye has contracted rapidly in the last few frames...anybody know the cause of it? Its not shear, and its not dry air, because convection has built back quite a bit

Kind of looks like one to me.

Do you or anyone else know where to find microwave data or something else that might show the cause of this?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Is there an ERC going on in bertha right now? Her eye has contracted rapidly in the last few frames...anybody know the cause of it? Its not shear, and its not dry air, because convection has built back quite a bit

Kind of looks like one to me.

Do you or anyone else know where to find microwave data or something else that might show the cause of this?

There is no current ones. But I've seen this before and it appears that the dry air is forcing a EWRC, also some of the older microwave data shown a "southern" outter band, I think its very possible.

[HarlequinBoy]

CrazyC83 hit it on the head, it gained it's intensity back.

Yeah he really did.

[cheezyWXguy]

Dry air doesnt seem to be a problem anymore...it obviously was before, with a significant dent in the sw quadrant, but that has since filled in. Im inclined to believe its going to be a very quick erc or the eye will just re-expand.

[SapphireSea]

It may be an ERC as the eye is trying warm and reform again. The storm's weakening is probobly due to being in a more stable atmosphere, and is probobly going to weaken a bit and more than likely hold steady in intensity for a day or two.

[HURAKAN]

Maybe an EWRC is occurring.

[HURAKAN]

First visible. Bertha's clouds getting closer to Bermuda.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Not bad.