Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[MississippiWx]

NAM through 66 hours:

[TideJoe]

NAM through 66 hours:

Too bad the NAM is the outlier...... that's 5-6 inches for Hattiesburg. I have a feeling we're going to be in for a couple days of cold drizzle.... and maybe a little sleet.

[SunnyThoughts]

I can't remember the last time I"ve ever witnessed such a strong thunderstorm as just went through here a couple hours ago. Man oh man... just got power back on, after being out for 2 1/2 hours. Bring on the snow, or the summer or something...this freezing weather with no snow then springlike violent thunderstorms are just insane.

[Metalicwx220]

[BigB0882]

That is 6-7 inches in Baton Rouge! I wish I could trust it but being the outlier, I don't know. And why does this say 6-7 but other maps with NAM on them show nothing? Does the NAM do multiple runs with different data, perhaps?

[Metalicwx220]

I can't remember the last time I"ve ever witnessed such a strong thunderstorm as just went through here a couple hours ago. Man oh man... just got power back on, after being out for 2 1/2 hours. Bring on the snow, or the summer or something...this freezing weather with no snow then springlike violent thunderstorms are just insane.

Its our turn later on. The storms are supposed to weaken considerably here, which is always the case. I assume ivanhaters power is out too.

[Metalicwx220]

NAM through 66 hours:

Congratulations this map has a record breaking 0 inches of snow for my area. Going back to chicago to get a snowshovel and a generator.

[Dean4Storms]

Noticing the trend more to the south and east with the NAM for this event. Could get interesting!

[Ivanhater]

I can't remember the last time I"ve ever witnessed such a strong thunderstorm as just went through here a couple hours ago. Man oh man... just got power back on, after being out for 2 1/2 hours. Bring on the snow, or the summer or something...this freezing weather with no snow then springlike violent thunderstorms are just insane.

Looked like a dang Hurricane for a few minutes earlier in P'cola. Power flickered on and off.

Nam still looking good for the Gulf coast. Don't get hung up on totals because it will be hard to determine where the heavy bands will set up or how much will fall as sleet or freezing rain. Tomorrow will be clearer. I expect some Gulf coast NWS offices to issue Winter wx watches tomorrow if trends continue.

[Dean4Storms]

That squall line is knocking on my door here just east of Destin, but appears to be breaking up and weakening!

[BigB0882]

I noticed the temps for highs on Thur have gone down for Baton Rouge. At one point they were in lower to mid 40's. Now weather.com has a high of 37 and NWS says highs "around 40." That is a good sign of temps trending a little colder. With a chance of ice in the forecast for Thur and Fri, I wonder if schools will be closed both days. I feel Friday is a sure thing unless tomorrow's runs are drastically different.

[MississippiWx]

I was posting those maps to more or less show that the NAM is being consistent with whatever it's showing, for the most part. I tend to agree with NOLA's NWS Office in that this is going to be a major ice storm for parts of Mississippi and East Central Louisiana. Apparently, my Jackson, MS Office does not agree seeing that we only have winter precip in the forecast for Friday night (one county north, west, and south of us has winter precip forecast about 4 different periods). I'm really not sure what to believe since there is very poor coordination with the surrounding NWS Offices.

I e-mailed the Jackson NWS a little while ago to ask about the above issues. Hopefully, they will be kind enough to give me an answer.

[PTrackerLA]

The 54hr snow depth on the NAM actually shows the most snow for Lafayette, Baton Rouge and southern MS areas. Yes thats 5" over Lafayette and 7"-8" near Baton Rouge! That's quite a bit more for this area than the 18z...someone please tell me these maps aren't completely bogus! The 00z NAM does look slightly colder than the 18z and continued very moist for my area. Also, it's hard to ignore that snowpack not too far to the north. Rarely with potential winter weather events down here do we have that aspect working for us as well; it's bound to have SOME downward impact on model depicted temperatures. I'm tempted to believe...

[MississippiWx]

The 54hr snow depth on the NAM actually shows the most snow for Lafayette, Baton Rouge and southern MS areas. Yes thats 5" over Lafayette and 7"-8" near Baton Rouge! That's quite a bit more for this area than the 18z...someone please tell me these maps aren't completely bogus! The 00z NAM does look slightly colder than the 18z and continued very moist for my area. Also, it's hard to ignore that snowpack not too far to the north. Rarely with potential winter weather events down here do we have that aspect working for us as well; it's bound to have SOME downward impact on model depicted temperatures. I'm tempted to believe...

Don't get suckered into believing the NAM snow maps. Most of that will probably end up being ice. Model soundings of the upper atmosphere just need to change drastically for areas east of the MS River to see that much snow. I'm by no means saying that these areas will see no snow at all, because I think they will at some point. However, I do not believe anywhere much farther east than the Mississippi will see more than 2'' of snow, unless you're around the I-20 corridor where you could see 3-4''.

Edit: People in Central/East-Central Louisiana and Southwest/Southeast Mississippi need to be preparing for a possible significant ice storm that could cause power outages and tree damage.

Not an official forecast.

[Brent]

NAM through 66 hours:

Congratulations this map has a record breaking 0 inches of snow for my area. Going back to chicago to get a snowshovel and a generator.

LOL, good luck getting to Chicago.

and I can't believe the freaking coast may get half a foot and I not get a flake. Everyone's gonna have more snow than me soon.

[Lane]

Brent, I am right there with you. That map shows an inch for my area, I will take it though!!

[BigB0882]

Really curious to see the NAM text for my area in 25 minutes. The 12z update has only rain listed even though the maps show snow. Curious to see if they begin to line up. We may not have a clue what to expect right up until the event. I agree that our biggest problem is temps above the surface. Seem to be about 4-7 degrees F above freezing. So close yet so far. Does snow pack affect those temps, wishful thinking?

[PTrackerLA]

Misswx, I think you're right. I just checked the Twisterdata site and our sounding at 51hrs on the latest NAM looks like this. Looks like air right at the surface is below freezing then it warms up quickly as you move up into the atmosphere...a freezing rain sounding if I'm reading this right at all.

[Lane]

Dean, where at in miramar are you? I have a little beach house on payne st. Just up from pompano joe's.

[BigB0882]

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_kbtr.txt

Freezing rain and lots of it, over half an inch! I do notice that the 850mb temps are .5 above freezing. Is that what we need to dip below to give us snow? If so...very very close and maybe it will go down or occasionally change to snow. Doesn't show snow for the 2nd round of precip.