ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wzrgirl1]

On my way to Key West in the morning. Should I be ok?

Wendy

['CaneFreak]

Yes...just a typical summer day in the keys

On my way to Key West in the morning. Should I be ok?

Wendy

[gatorcane]

Though we shouldn't look at absolute intensities here as we don't have a closed low, this graphic suggests conditions appear to be favorable for some development of this system:

[Aric Dunn]

I can't find any evidence of a surface circulation. Any rotation seen on radar is in the mid levels - 12,000-15,000 ft, as the Miami radar beam is that high above the ground out there. Winds are very light all through the Bahamas and convection is minimal. No development.

nothing yet ... however it is clearly on its way.. question is will it be ble to do it in time.

[Aric Dunn]

Ahhhhh....ok bogus vortex then..forgot about that..thx for the clarification..

Its basing that solution off the assumption that this is already a closed system which it is not

actually, HWRF does NOT assume a closed low. No dynamical model assumes a closed low, unless a bogus low is initialized in the model. Dynamical models can develop their own closed low

yeah it is quiet possible we have a developing system in the morning.. can it do it is the question.

[SFLcane]

HWRF over developes systems a good chunk of the time but i was just throwing something out there.

[HURAKAN]

you guys have a lot of faith on ex-Darian, you don't mind being disappointed every afternoon

[ninel conde]

you guys have a lot of faith on ex-Darian, you don't mind being disappointed every afternoon

upper low dorian still has a shot to be a weak TS if it can head NE ahead of the trof.

[gatorcane]

Latest IR saved image. Reds showing up west of Andros:

['CaneFreak]

lol...ok...I think it is time for bed...we are tracking individual thunderstorms on a typical summer evening in the Bahamas...YAWN...

Latest IR saved image. Reds showing up west of Andros:

http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/8493/5dho.jpg

[artist]

HWRF over developes systems a good chunk of the time but i was just throwing something out there.

wasn't it upgraded recently? How has it done since then, anyone know?

[Aric Dunn]

lol...ok...I think it is time for bed...we are tracking individual thunderstorms on a typical summer evening in the Bahamas...YAWN...

Latest IR saved image. Reds showing up west of Andros:

[img]http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/8493/5dho.jpg[/ig]

haha well this is my forte ... development.. i have not been around the last few days the remnants have been lingering... there is clearly a little more organization.. it has along way to go but its worth ( and fun for me) to watch...

Also i would not even call this Dorian.. the low lvl vorticity that was originally was Dorian died 4 days ago .. this the left over mid level vort.. not the same.

[wzrgirl1]

I am going to watch for a little bit too. Have to make the 4 hour trek to Key West in the morning and want to make sure I get there safely and won't run into much bad weather. I don't like driving in the wind and rain, that is my biggest fear. Hope I don't wake up to any surprises tomorrow morning. Ugh!!

[Aric Dunn]

gfs ensembles ...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_91.gif

['CaneFreak]

This is definitely your forte but this is definitely NOT Dorian...maybe we should change the title of the thread? Make it something like "Dorian's mid-level Remnants"...ROFLOL. It will be interesting to watch...for about 24 hours until it gets hit by a wall of shear from the incoming trough

haha well this is my forte ... development.. i have not been around the last few days the remnants have been lingering... there is clearly a little more organization.. it has along way to go but its worth ( and fun for me) to watch...

Also i would not even call this Dorian.. the low lvl vorticity that was originally was Dorian died 4 days ago .. this the left over mid level vort.. not the same.

[cycloneye]

This is definitely your forte but this is definitely NOT Dorian...maybe we should change the title of the thread? Make it something like "Dorian's mid-level Remnants"...ROFLOL. It will be interesting to watch...for about 24 hours until it gets hit by a wall of shear from the incoming trough

haha well this is my forte ... development.. i have not been around the last few days the remnants have been lingering... there is clearly a little more organization.. it has along way to go but its worth ( and fun for me) to watch...

Also i would not even call this Dorian.. the low lvl vorticity that was originally was Dorian died 4 days ago .. this the left over mid level vort.. not the same.

As long NHC keeps saying remnants of Dorian,this thread remains open for comments for this area.

['CaneFreak]

It's the light gray lines, correct?

gfs ensembles ...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_91.gif

[ROCK]

correct....not liking that BAMD run....better start up my generator...

[StormTracker]

Is it just me or does it look like the trough is breaking down and won't be as strong as previously thought? Looks to me that the mid-level remnants of Dorian has more time to play with and the trough might not pick it up!

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-79&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=7

[jonj2040]

from what I can see the CIMSS products show little to no upper divergence and a negative lower convergence. I'm just an amateur and even just starting that but wouldn't at least one of these have to go in their respective positive directions to induce development? Which also brings me to the question have we had development of a system with the lack of these aspects?

Thanks!

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