ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormhunter7]

Current vessels in the area of 99L

[Agua]

I think an LLC has developed well East near 77.5W 22.5N...That area continues to rotate and new convection is now blowing up just to its west moving rapidly southward and convection popping to its north again.

Speed it up......

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160827&endtime=latest&nframes=60&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=1000&aniheight=1600

I believe that's the decoupled MLC. It may be trying to work its way down - will struggle for dominance with the lower level vortex to the west.

[Dean4Storms]

I think an LLC has developed well East near 77.5W 22.5N...That area continues to rotate and new convection is now blowing up just to its west moving rapidly southward and convection popping to its north again. ...snip

I think that's a mid-level feature, not a surface feature. It's well-separated from the surface feature (SW of Andros Island), which is why it isn't developing. Of course, sometimes the surface low can re-form beneath the mid-level circulation. I think there's too much westerly shear for that to happen now.

I still think a surface LLC developed this morning back in the deep convection there. Even now if you look at the low level cumulus streams south of the island of Cuba they are coming due north and then bending back toward the NNE as they get close to the island headed into the convection over land. Also, there was high level cirrus over Cuba due south of the rotation so I don't think that convection was due to heating of the sun and that convection is even racing Eastward. Looks suspicious too me.

[Dean4Storms]

I think an LLC has developed well East near 77.5W 22.5N...That area continues to rotate and new convection is now blowing up just to its west moving rapidly southward and convection popping to its north again.

Speed it up......

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160827&endtime=latest&nframes=60&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=1000&aniheight=1600

I believe that's the decoupled MLC. It may be trying to work its way down - will struggle for dominance with the lower level vortex to the west.

I don't see a vortex to the West anymore, nothing there but a gust front and squalls racing westward.

[Aric Dunn]

Latest Ship reports. the west wind is just south of the mid to low level circ.. obviously wont be for sure till we get recon. but if there were any indications of a weak surface circ its this nearly perfectly placed poop.

[stormhunter7]

boom goes the dynamite? lol Think this may be where are new center may be.... gotta see what happens for next few hours.

[adam0983]

It's an eye we might have a hurricane lol. Just an opinion not a forecast

[Dean4Storms]

boom goes the dynamite? lol Think this may be where are new center may be.... gotta see what happens for next few hours.[/quote]


New convection appears to be wrapping and the rotation appears to be speeding up.

[floridasun78]

bad news for 99l upper low starting affect 99l from north http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-ir4.html

[Sanibel]

Should be watched because it is entering bursting waters. Might burst and form. Might be giving a last curvature gasp - ?


Disclaimer: I am not a professional meteorologist. Please refer to official weather sources for serious information on tropical systems.

[OntarioEggplant]

This is driving me crazy. What was that Euro run?

[bella_may]

boom goes the dynamite? lol Think this may be where are new center may be.... gotta see what happens for next few hours.

Coincidence or not that this is the exact location where the ship reports were just indicating some kind of center? I feel like this is one of those storms that can blow up in a heartbeat, especially with the very warm waters in the gulf. The minute this shear starts to die down, yikes.

[La Sirena]

This is driving me crazy. What was that Euro run?

I'm with you! Prepped to sit tight for a few days...you know, just in case

[AutoPenalti]

Oh my rotation! It's finally starting to blow!

[Aric Dunn]

I think the natives are starting to get restless.. lol

[HurriGuy]

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160827&endtime=latest&nframes=140&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=600&aniheight=373

I am standing by earlier notation that the new COC is back east where the new convection is really starting to pop. I see no visible rotation to the west.

Edit: Thats approx. around 77.5W and maybe 22.8N

[NJWxHurricane]

Not to sure where you are guys are seeing rotation. Not seeing anything.

[HurriGuy]

Not to sure where you are guys are seeing rotation. Not seeing anything.

I am not sure if you are joking, in the wrong thread or what...

Pretty obvious rotation on visible satellite

[mpic]

I'm in the Houston area and they are talking about a disturbance south of New Iberia, LA so hope 99L blows out. We don't need any more water and certainly don't need it in LA

[bella_may]

Not to sure where you are guys are seeing rotation. Not seeing anything.

Not sure how to post links in here but if you look at the latest graphic you can easily see rotation. Whether it's a llc or mlc remains to be seen...