Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Brent]

GFS Tuesday at DFW gets to a balmy 27 degrees

[Ntxw]

I hope the 0z GFS is wrong with those cold temperatures. That would likely be a damaging arctic outbreak.

Thankfully it's on it's own right now. 0z Canadian doesn't show extreme cold. 20s-30s.

1063mb would make it top 3 strongest on record in the lower 48. I'm not sure I believe it. It's like a model predicting a Cat 5 but HP version. And it's not 200+ hours

Yeah I'm not worried about it yet. The GFS really has been bad lately. If other models come on board I will become concerned.

Having the NAM show 1052mb in it's far range kind of gets me thinking though. And the Euro has been trending with more HP. Either way, no matter what model you pick it's likely going to be a cold outbreak in what is already cold air in place. That's often how you can get very cold.

[Cerlin]

Precipitation when it's that cold would be downright devastating for Texas.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Its one of the strongest ever, but it's cold north of the border, dead of winter, high snow pack.... We shall see.

74 in Houston when its 24 in DFW. Thats rare.

[Ntxw]

Looking on the GFS I was trying to find origin of this air mass and HP comes from. The HP is a lobe coming from Greenland while the air mass is partially with the drainage of Siberia this week. Siberia is in the -40s and -50s right now and it all gets shoved over the pole from the big Arctic 500mb ridge as the days go and they go above normal into the "-10s and -20s"

[South Texas Storms]

0z UKMET looks much warmer than the GFS. Kinda similar to the Canadian.

[Ntxw]

For it to show it at hour 150 will turn some heads. That’s less than a week out. One thing for sure is that it’s looking quite cold next week.

Yeah, the single digits runs are usually 200+ and more often 300+ hours out. You never seen them under 200 hours.

[Cpv17]

The whole entire state is below freezing. Crazy!

[South Texas Storms]

The GFS is showing very dry conditions over the next 2 weeks across TX. Much of the state gets less than 0.50 inch of precip.

[Cpv17]

The GFS is showing very dry conditions over the next 2 weeks across TX. Much of the state gets less than 0.50 inch of precip.

Yep. Probably because it’s just way too cold for any precipitation. The strength of that high would push out all the moisture into the Gulf.

[Brent]

For it to show it at hour 150 will turn some heads. That’s less than a week out. One thing for sure is that it’s looking quite cold next week.

Yeah, the single digits runs are usually 200+ and more often 300+ hours out. You never seen them under 200 hours.

I was just thinking... remember when New Years was 300+ hours out and the GFS showed single digits in DFW that one run?

Now here we are...

[Cpv17]

For it to show it at hour 150 will turn some heads. That’s less than a week out. One thing for sure is that it’s looking quite cold next week.

Yeah, the single digits runs are usually 200+ and more often 300+ hours out. You never seen them under 200 hours.

I was just thinking... remember when New Years was 300+ hours out and the GFS showed single digits in DFW that one run?

Now here we are...

Same thing for those massive highs. Even saw some over 1070mb a week or so ago that kept showing up over 200+ hours out.

[Cpv17]

Looks to be another cold run for the Euro. 1052mb high in sw Canada at hour 96 around the same place the Nam had it earlier.
Edit: scratch that. This run of the Euro is not that cold at all.

[South Texas Storms]

0z Euro is much closer to the Canadian than the GFS. Don't think the Euro will be showing record breaking cold this run.

The difference between the Euro and GFS is huge at 144 hours.

[Brent]

0z Euro is much closer to the Canadian than the GFS. Don't think the Euro will be showing record breaking cold this run.

The difference between the Euro and GFS is huge at 144 hours.

yup nothing extreme through NYE

around 40 for highs next weekend(doesn't warmup like the GFS before the front either)

Temps actually rising Sunday Night on the Euro well above freezing

[South Texas Storms]

0z Euro is much closer to the Canadian than the GFS. Don't think the Euro will be showing record breaking cold this run.

The difference between the Euro and GFS is huge at 144 hours.

yup nothing extreme through NYE

around 40 for highs next weekend(doesn't warmup like the GFS before the front either)

Temps actually rising Sunday Night on the Euro

Yep GFS is all on it's own regarding the extreme cold temps next week. What a surprise.

[Brent]

looks like the Euro is again east of us with the worst of the cold

40s and rain on New Years Day on the Euro, a far cry from the 14 degree high of the GFS...

[Cpv17]

0z Euro is much closer to the Canadian than the GFS. Don't think the Euro will be showing record breaking cold this run.

The difference between the Euro and GFS is huge at 144 hours.

yup nothing extreme through NYE

around 40 for highs next weekend(doesn't warmup like the GFS before the front either)

Temps actually rising Sunday Night on the Euro

Yep GFS is all on it's own regarding the extreme cold temps next week. What a surprise.

At around 5-6 days out it’s crazy how big of a difference it is between the Euro and GFS. 10+ days out sure, but not at this range.

[South Texas Storms]

Yep it happens though. Since the UKMET and Canadian are in better agreement with the Euro, I'm siding closer to those models.

[Brent]

DFW barely even touches 32 on the Euro once



What cold?