ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

Volusia Mike · #3421 Postby **Volusia Mike** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:02 pm

I think you may be thinking of Floyd in 99 for the long wait on the interstate. By the way, if you will remember Hugo hit Charlotte hard as well as the coast...I lived through Hugo as a Police Officer evacing people from the beach. It went fairly smooth except for the idiots who did not want to leave and during the storm called 911 begging for someone to come and get them.[/quote]
I can certainly relate to that comment. In 2004 when we had four storms impact our are residents of the Beachside (the barrier island along our coast) decided that they were not going to leave. In the height of the storm they started calling 9-1-1 demanding that someone come and get them. We had closed the bridges due to wind concerns and told them we would check on them after the storm passed. It always amazes me that people make such poor decisions then demand someone come save their butts...
The evac for Floyd in our area was a diaster. Everyone waited until the last minute to leave. From our city there was, at that time, a two lane road west of Interstate 95 that lead to the center of the state. As luck would have it an RV caught fire right in the middle of that road and screwed traffic for hours!

#3422 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:03 pm

GFDL brings a 921MB hurricane into South Florida on the 12Z.

Heads NNW up the spine of the peninsula.

sandyb · #3423 Postby **sandyb** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:06 pm

as of right now nhc is saying sc it has moved from south florida to ga/sc now mid sc our local mets are saying they think it will come even closer to nc than being said right now. of course this always happends the cone moves at the storm moves closer. I wouldnt be suprised if we got a pretty good hit here in NC before all is said and done

#3424 Postby **ozonepete** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:07 pm

gatorcane wrote:GFDL brings a 921MB hurricane into South Florida on the 12Z.

Heads NNW up the spine of the peninsula.

But the 12Z has an incorrect position for where it is now. Need to see a newer run with that one.

Aric Dunn · #3425 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:09 pm

ozonepete wrote:
gatorcane wrote:GFDL brings a 921MB hurricane into South Florida on the 12Z.

Heads NNW up the spine of the peninsula.

But the 12Z has an incorrect position for where it is now. Need to see a newer run with that one.

your talking a 30 mile difference to the east where it was 10 am.. not going to change the sysnoptics that the GFDL has.

UpTheCreek · #3426 Postby **UpTheCreek** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:10 pm

sandyb wrote:as of right now nhc is saying sc it has moved from south florida to ga/sc now mid sc our local mets are saying they think it will come even closer to nc than being said right now. of course this always happends the cone moves at the storm moves closer. I wouldnt be suprised if we got a pretty good hit here in NC before all is said and done

I'm hoping for FURTHER eastward and no landfall in NC at all!

Hey Sandyb!

#3427 Postby **marciacubed** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:10 pm

Isn't the GFDL one of the models the NHC depends on the most? I always thought it was one of the most reliable. I am just asking because it seems like it is an important model when I read what everyone writes.

#3428 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:12 pm

gatorcane wrote:GFDL brings a 921MB hurricane into South Florida on the 12Z.

Heads NNW up the spine of the peninsula.

The same GFDL that was forecasting a track south of Cuba this past weekend. Enough said...

#3429 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:14 pm

marciacubed wrote:Isn't th GFDL one of the models the NHC depends on the most? I always thought it was one of the most reliable. I am just asking because it seems like it is an important model when I read what everyone writes.

No. It's somewhat old but they have continued to update it each year. The NHC forecast closely follows the consensus model, a blend of a variety of models.

#3430 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:16 pm

wxman57 wrote:
marciacubed wrote:Isn't th GFDL one of the models the NHC depends on the most? I always thought it was one of the most reliable. I am just asking because it seems like it is an important model when I read what everyone writes.

No. It's somewhat old but they have continued to update it each year. The NHC forecast closely follows the consensus model, a blend of a variety of models.

And their intended replacement for the GFDL seems to get worse every year. Not that it was very good to begin with.

#3431 Postby **ncweatherwizard** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:17 pm

Thought this would be a good opportunity to remind folks of a great site that is still in development:

http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

The tracks provided are individual solutions of several ensemble prediction systems and provide and sense of the uncertainty involved in the track forecasts.

Aric Dunn · #3432 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:18 pm

She is starting intensify. I think the stall its doing is due this. also there is a lot of lightning right now in the eyewall sign of very intense convection.

divanicki75 · #3433 Postby **divanicki75** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:19 pm

mbsc wrote: I think you may be thinking of Floyd in 99 for the long wait on the interstate. By the way, if you will remember Hugo hit Charlotte hard as well as the coast...I lived through Hugo as a Police Officer evacing people from the beach. It went fairly smooth except for the idiots who did not want to leave and during the storm called 911 begging for someone to come and get them.

I was just corrected here at work about that... I still lived in my home state of CT then...

clfenwi · #3434 Postby **clfenwi** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:20 pm

RL3AO wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
A. 23/00Z
B. AFXXX 0509A IRENE
C. 22/1730Z
F. 24,000 TO 33,000 FT

Any idea what this flight is about? Why an air force flight that high in altitude?

My guess is that it is a research type mission, collecting data with Doppler radar. I'm poking around now to see if I can find any further info.

#3435 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:21 pm

The updated 2pm track shows that Irene is currently south of the NHC's line.

jdray · #3436 Postby **jdray** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:22 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:The updated 2pm track shows that Irene is currently south of the NHC's line.

Thats why the NHC always says look at the cone, not the line. The line just happens to be the center of the cone, nothing more. (Not that you didn't already know that

), more for the new people. )

#3437 Postby **CronkPSU** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:26 pm

no G-IV?

#3438 Postby **JtSmarts** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:28 pm

Some more Joe B

Euro right on the track I have for Irene.. How about that 54 analog??? drought/heat Texas- hurricanes running east coast

Note: Latest euro shows landfall near NC.

#3439 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:29 pm

Looks like she is heading right for Hispaniola, may make landfall there later on today.

Also, she is slowing down some it seems

#3440 Postby **Mouton** » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:30 pm

jdray wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:The updated 2pm track shows that Irene is currently south of the NHC's line.

Thats why the NHC always says look at the cone, not the line. The line just happens to be the center of the cone, nothing more. (Not that you didn't already know that ), more for the new people. )

With the storm left or under the NHC track, it projects to something farther west then the models are showing IMO...don't let the models fool your eyes.

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