Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Portastorm]

Hey ... it's a bit early for end zone celebrations, don't you think?!

We still have four weeks of "opportunity." Our time is coming (back)!

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

Hey ... it's a bit early for end zone celebrations, don't you think?!

We still have four weeks of "opportunity." Our time is coming (back)!

I have six more days to celebrate before next Wednesday's cold front puts us back in the ice box. Well, cold, anyway.

[rkbjunior]

:uarrow:

Hey ... it's a bit early for end zone celebrations, don't you think?!

We still have four weeks of "opportunity." Our time is coming (back)!

Quick and ugly MS Paintshop.

[Ntxw]

GWO continues to rise along with those el nino years. There may not be an El Nino but Feb may feature an El nino-like subtropical jet train

[TeamPlayersBlue]

:uarrow:

Hey ... it's a bit early for end zone celebrations, don't you think?!

We still have four weeks of "opportunity." Our time is coming (back)!

Neer give up, we have seen snow in April down here! NEVER GIVE UP!

[wxman57]

I think there's a good chance that Houston has seen its last freeze of the winter (Bush airport and south).

[Texas Snowman]

Hogwash! Ntxw and Portastorm are conspiring as we speak via a top-secret PWC teleconference call.

From the rumors I hear, there is a plan in the works to get you up to the very precipice of sustained 80-degree spring weather.

And then have Jack Frost suddenly yank the rug out from under your Tour de Houston plans!

[Portastorm]

If you'd like a little early afternoon entertainment, check out the 12z Euro run and compare it to the 0z Euro run.

The King has fallen from his throne, albeit temporarily.

Like I've been saying ... models are very volatile until they get a better handle on this changing pattern next week.

[Ntxw]

Looks like PWC sent some personnel over to Tokyo for some meteorological diplomacy

[Portastorm]

Funny you should mention this, Ntxw. There currently is a bidding war going on over the Portastorm Weather Center's endorsement for our favorite adult beverage. The PWC recently informed the makers of Grey Goose how disappointed we were with the European model's performance and lack of delivery of a true Texas winter storm. But the makers of Kissui quickly stepped up, advocated for the JMA model, and promised to deliver "the goods" if the PWC would consider switching to their brand.



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[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think there's a good chance that Houston has seen its last freeze of the winter (Bush airport and south).

Only half way through man!

[wxman57]

I think there's a good chance that Houston has seen its last freeze of the winter (Bush airport and south).

Only half way through man!

Doesn't matter. It's hard to get a freeze here with "backdoor" fronts. Our coldest temps are frequently in late December and early January. Last year's low at Bush airport for February was 34 (42F in March 2012). Could be similar this year. In the last 12 years, the low for February has only reached 32F 5 times at Bush. Of course, Conroe will see another 20-30 freezes.

[wxman57]

If you'd like a little early afternoon entertainment, check out the 12z Euro run and compare it to the 0z Euro run.

The King has fallen from his throne, albeit temporarily.

Like I've been saying ... models are very volatile until they get a better handle on this changing pattern next week.

Maybe the Euro is closer to what will really happen than the GFS for next week? I suspect the end result will be something in between the GFS/Euro solutions. Meanwhile, it's about 77 degrees here in Houston and my bike is ready to go when I get home at 4:30.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Hey man youre not living up to our agreement! We said we get our cold for two, you get your hot for two. Cant bail out of the contract already! I thought we had an agreement!

[weatherdude1108]

All I know is that it is 81 degrees at my house right now.

[wxman57]

Hey man youre not living up to our agreement! We said we get our cold for two, you get your hot for two. Cant bail out of the contract already! I thought we had an agreement!

What agreement? You've had your cold for the last month. Time for some heat!

[Ntxw]

The southern half of Texas is getting rigged. Misfortune of living so close to wxman57's radiance! Cold front is cutting through the north (41 in OKC) but won't make it much further south than Waco. Relief for North Texas this weekend but crank up the heat in the south, yikes.


Edit wrong map

Edit 2: at least Houston will be mostly cloudy or foggy so it might not feel as bad as today

[gpsnowman]

Way too many posts from wxman57 here lately. Things need to turn in our favor soon for some serious revenge posts!!!!!

[Ntxw]

18z GFS has the right ingredients for Texas/Deep south mischief. Will we keep the trend? Will it trend wetter as the period comes closer? 12z was a little further north and the Euro can be discounted for its pms swings.




NE Pac ridge? Check
Cold air nearby? Check
Strong vorticity going neutral/negative? Check
Coastal low to return surface moisture? Check
Believable? TBD...

Edit: Looking at the Euro ensembles to my shock even they have flip flopped. That is pretty dramatic for one of the highest regarded tools available (even more than the euro itself). As Portastorm said, large scale changes giving fits. I am willing to bet my noodles big changes are ahead in the modelling world.

[Tireman4]

Hey man youre not living up to our agreement! We said we get our cold for two, you get your hot for two. Cant bail out of the contract already! I thought we had an agreement!

What agreement? You've had your cold for the last month. Time for some heat!

I think I am going to be sick. Good gosh almighty. 80 degrees. Why? Why? I think I am going to move....sigh...