ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane Alexis]

Still at 45kts.

AL, 05, 2012080606, , BEST, 0, 150N, 800W, 45, 1003, TS

[somethingfunny]

Honduras still has only a Tropical Storm Watch posted.

At current speed and unless Ernie starts moving at a 300 degree heading immediately, Honduras will be hit directly by this storm's center in about 14 hours. Whatever that means in this case anyway, since the center never remains discrete for long.

[USTropics]

What exactly does microwave show as far as the structure of a storm?

The Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC) product provides a radar-like visualization of the evolution of TC structure using advanced image morphing algorithms. The final product is a synthetically-derived animation at 15 minute intervals between two authentic passive microwave satellite images. The morphing routines utilize an advection/rotation scheme based on the current reported TC wind speed estimates.

[Hurricane Alexis]

06z best track.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[JamesCaneTracker]

I really think that Recon is going to find a totally different system out there this morning then the one they left last night! Really looks to be getting it's act together pretty quickly this morning!

[JamesCaneTracker]

It will be interesting to see what Recon finds...

Please note that anything I say here is just my own thoughts and for important information check with the NHC and your local office of the NWS...

Based on forecast points, IF recon finds the center located in the center of the Deep convection ball that looks to be a developing CDO, then Ernesto looks to have stalled... He would still be located at the Forecast point that he should have been at over 8 hours ago and no where near the forecast point he should be at in less then 4 hours from now.

If he has in fact stalled then NONE of the forecast models showed that happening atleast none that I saw!

[Kingarabian]

Did they fly out yet?

[JamesCaneTracker]

Did they fly out yet?

Not yet still waiting for the first ob.

[JamesCaneTracker]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060850
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 01 20120806
084200 1738N 06453W 8790 01246 0140 +190 +190 080024 026 /// /// 05
084230 1737N 06455W 8474 01562 //// +168 //// 074025 026 /// /// 05
084300 1736N 06457W 8189 01855 0122 +170 +170 065022 024 /// /// 05
084330 1736N 06459W 7940 02117 0113 +170 +170 059018 021 /// /// 05
084400 1735N 06501W 7728 02348 0108 +160 +160 058017 018 /// /// 05
084430 1735N 06503W 7550 02554 0107 +150 +150 054018 019 /// /// 05
084500 1734N 06505W 7331 02803 0111 +140 +140 056016 017 000 002 01
084530 1733N 06507W 7150 03005 //// +114 //// 062016 016 000 001 01
084600 1733N 06509W 6972 03221 //// +097 //// 059015 016 000 000 01
084630 1732N 06511W 6803 03423 //// +079 //// 072013 015 000 000 01
084700 1731N 06513W 6638 03625 //// +062 //// 082013 013 000 001 01
084730 1731N 06516W 6493 03806 //// +048 //// 079013 013 000 001 01
084800 1730N 06518W 6347 03990 //// +033 //// 070013 014 000 000 01
084830 1729N 06520W 6211 04166 //// +020 //// 065014 014 000 000 01
084900 1729N 06522W 6073 04347 //// +008 //// 062013 014 000 001 01
084930 1728N 06524W 5955 04495 //// -006 //// 057015 015 000 002 01
085000 1727N 06526W 5834 04657 //// -018 //// 056014 015 000 002 01
085030 1726N 06529W 5715 04819 //// -032 //// 053012 015 000 000 01
085100 1726N 06531W 5597 04987 //// -036 //// 041011 011 000 001 01
085130 1725N 06533W 5486 05150 0266 -049 //// 022010 011 000 001 01
$$
;

[JamesCaneTracker]

Just got the first ob!

[Kingarabian]

The EPac will welcome Ernesto with open arms, including very warm waters, and a real shot at MH status.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

I'll take it from here if you want.

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060900
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 02 20120806
085200 1724N 06535W 5386 05295 0274 -057 //// 012011 011 000 003 05
085230 1724N 06537W 5296 05427 0281 -050 //// 005010 010 000 001 01
085300 1723N 06540W 5216 05547 0288 -050 //// 004009 010 000 002 01
085330 1722N 06542W 5105 05708 0296 -058 //// 355010 011 001 001 01
085400 1722N 06544W 5017 05852 0307 -069 //// 003013 014 000 001 01
085430 1721N 06546W 4943 05968 0313 -075 //// 002011 014 000 002 01
085500 1720N 06548W 4869 06088 0320 -075 //// 006009 010 001 000 01
085530 1719N 06551W 4795 06205 0325 -077 //// 354007 009 001 000 01
085600 1719N 06553W 4738 06297 0330 -082 //// 349007 007 000 001 01
085630 1718N 06555W 4682 06388 0334 -089 //// 350007 007 000 000 01
085700 1717N 06557W 4655 06437 0339 -095 //// 353008 009 000 001 01
085730 1717N 06559W 4652 06437 0337 -095 //// 355009 010 000 001 01
085800 1716N 06602W 4658 06425 0333 -095 //// 355009 010 000 001 01
085830 1715N 06604W 4656 06427 0332 -095 //// 355010 010 000 000 01
085900 1714N 06607W 4656 06426 0331 -094 //// 347009 010 000 001 01
085930 1714N 06609W 4656 06426 0330 -080 -080 340009 009 000 001 01
090000 1713N 06611W 4655 06428 0332 -080 -080 337009 009 000 000 01
090030 1712N 06614W 4656 06427 0332 -080 -080 339009 009 000 001 01
090100 1711N 06616W 4656 06426 0331 -090 -090 340009 009 001 001 01
090130 1711N 06618W 4656 06428 0333 -080 -080 338009 010 000 001 01
$$
;

[JamesCaneTracker]

I can do images if you want.

[Kingarabian]

I can do images if you want.

Go ahead.

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060910
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 03 20120806
090200 1710N 06620W 4655 06432 0336 -090 -091 345010 011 001 000 00
090230 1709N 06623W 4658 06429 0337 -090 -093 345011 011 001 000 00
090300 1708N 06625W 4655 06433 0337 -091 -095 344011 011 001 000 00
090330 1708N 06627W 4656 06432 0337 -092 -097 344011 011 002 000 00
090400 1707N 06630W 4656 06433 0338 -095 -099 351011 012 001 000 00
090430 1706N 06632W 4656 06432 0337 -095 -100 357010 011 000 000 00
090500 1705N 06634W 4656 06433 0338 -095 -102 357010 010 001 001 00
090530 1705N 06637W 4656 06433 0339 -095 -104 357010 011 001 000 00
090600 1704N 06639W 4655 06435 0338 -095 -105 355010 010 000 001 00
090630 1703N 06641W 4656 06434 0339 -095 -107 359010 010 001 000 00
090700 1702N 06644W 4658 06431 0338 -091 -108 347010 010 001 001 00
090730 1702N 06646W 4655 06434 0337 -090 -108 347009 009 001 001 00
090800 1701N 06648W 4656 06433 0339 -090 -109 348009 009 000 001 00
090830 1700N 06651W 4655 06437 0340 -090 -109 350009 009 000 001 00
090900 1659N 06653W 4656 06434 0340 -090 -109 349009 009 001 000 00
090930 1659N 06655W 4655 06437 0340 -090 -109 353009 009 001 000 00
091000 1658N 06658W 4658 06432 0340 -090 -109 359010 010 001 001 00
091030 1657N 06700W 4654 06438 0340 -090 -109 357010 010 002 001 00
091100 1656N 06702W 4656 06434 0339 -090 -109 360010 011 004 000 00
091130 1656N 06705W 4656 06434 0339 -090 -109 355010 011 002 000 00
$$
;

[JamesCaneTracker]

HDOB 2

[JamesCaneTracker]

HDOB 3

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 060920
AF302 0805A ERNESTO HDOB 04 20120806
091200 1655N 06707W 4656 06434 0339 -090 -109 348011 011 003 000 00
091230 1654N 06709W 4656 06434 0339 -090 -108 352010 010 003 000 00
091300 1653N 06712W 4656 06434 0339 -090 -108 356011 011 001 000 00
091330 1652N 06714W 4658 06431 0338 -090 -108 356011 011 002 000 00
091400 1652N 06716W 4655 06435 0339 -090 -108 358010 010 006 000 00
091430 1651N 06719W 4656 06434 0339 -090 -108 356010 010 006 000 00
091500 1650N 06721W 4655 06434 0339 -091 -108 357010 010 005 000 00
091530 1649N 06723W 4656 06434 0339 -093 -108 360010 010 004 001 00
091600 1649N 06726W 4655 06435 0339 -095 -109 002010 010 004 000 00
091630 1648N 06728W 4656 06433 0339 -095 -109 002009 010 005 000 00
091700 1647N 06730W 4655 06435 0339 -095 -109 004009 009 006 000 00
091730 1646N 06733W 4656 06434 0340 -095 -110 007009 009 004 000 00
091800 1646N 06735W 4655 06437 0340 -095 -110 008009 009 005 000 00
091830 1645N 06738W 4656 06434 0339 -095 -110 011009 009 003 001 00
091900 1644N 06740W 4656 06434 0339 -095 -110 013009 009 004 000 00
091930 1643N 06742W 4656 06433 0338 -095 -111 012009 010 004 001 00
092000 1642N 06745W 4657 06431 0337 -096 -111 012009 009 002 000 00
092030 1642N 06747W 4655 06434 0337 -099 -112 015010 010 002 000 00
092100 1641N 06749W 4656 06432 0337 -100 -112 018010 011 002 000 00
092130 1640N 06752W 4656 06433 0337 -100 -112 019010 011 004 000 00
$$
;

[JamesCaneTracker]

HDOB 4