ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cjrciadt]

Per the 11PM:

Wind speeds: Day 5: 115kts.

Looks like they forecasting this weaken a little.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0234.shtml?

It must EWRC a few times by the weekend most likely.. Recon supports 125knots atm, maybe special advisory?

[Mouton]

Per the 11PM:

Wind speeds: Day 5: 115kts.

Looks like they forecasting this weaken a little.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0234.shtml?

Interaction with Cuba.

[JaxGator]

The Publix down the road from me is out of water already per WJXT 4. So are other ones throughout town.

There's no water in Florida. I can confirm from Palm Beach County. We are on our own.

There was also a shortage of bread, but not for the Publix closest to me which still has some as far as I know. I'm sure/hope that they will restock in time this week depending on the forecast and if there are evacuation orders issued.

[tropicwatch]

When will they start the hourly position update like they did with Harvey? Might not be a bad time to do so at 0000AST so they could put what looks like the wind increase up. That is if they are going to raise the winds of course.

[Taylormae]

Water is pretty much gone in Pensacola as well.

Came to say this ^
I've heard gas may be running low as well - idk if that's from the TX mess or people filling up from Irma but I've heard it from a few buddies that work at Tom Thumbs.

[LCfromFL]

For those in Florida...have you seen the Florida Division of Emergency Management's Disaster Preparedness Map? http://www.floridadisaster.org/publicmapping/ You can put in your address and find out what evacuation zone you are in. It also shows surge atlases. Governor Scott referenced this site: http://www.floridadisaster.org/getaplan/default.aspx for assistance with developing individual family plans.

(Mods - do you think this should be a sticky?)

I'm having trouble using this. Are areas suppose to be shaded once you put your address in?

Yes - if you want to PM me your address, I'll try it for you.

[Blown Away]

INIT 05/0300Z 16.7N 55.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 16.9N 57.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 17.5N 60.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 18.3N 62.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 19.3N 65.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 21.2N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 22.5N 76.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 24.0N 80.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

Irma didn't dip as far as the NHC had been predicting and now the next mark is 16.9N, which I predict Irma will go N of...

[Ken711]

INIT 05/0300Z 16.7N 55.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 16.9N 57.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 17.5N 60.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 18.3N 62.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 19.3N 65.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 21.2N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 22.5N 76.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 24.0N 80.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

Irma didn't dip as far as the NHC had been predicting and now the next mark is 16.9N, which I predict Irma will go N of...

A good sign?

[painkillerr]

INIT 05/0300Z 16.7N 55.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 16.9N 57.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 17.5N 60.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 18.3N 62.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 19.3N 65.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 21.2N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 22.5N 76.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 24.0N 80.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

Irma didn't dip as far as the NHC had been predicting and now the next mark is 16.9N, which I predict Irma will go N of...

So you expect the NWN turn so soon?

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 050316
AF305 0611A IRMA HDOB 39 20170905
030700 1623N 05602W 6966 02926 9775 +113 +113 308083 084 082 008 00
030730 1622N 05604W 6964 02943 9802 +114 +114 309080 082 080 012 00
030800 1621N 05605W 6958 02963 9831 +114 +114 313080 082 074 016 03
030830 1620N 05606W 6974 02955 9846 +115 +115 317079 083 074 027 03
030900 1619N 05607W 6964 02983 9876 +110 +110 317087 090 072 030 03
030930 1618N 05608W 6971 02985 9899 +102 +102 308087 088 065 029 03
031000 1616N 05609W 6962 03011 9916 +094 +094 309086 088 065 019 03
031030 1615N 05611W 6969 03014 9910 +088 +086 310087 089 061 009 00
031100 1614N 05612W 6969 03025 9917 +086 +082 315087 089 060 008 00
031130 1613N 05613W 6965 03040 9910 +101 +072 315084 087 060 008 00
031200 1612N 05614W 6967 03044 9937 +085 +079 320080 083 057 007 00
031230 1611N 05615W 6967 03055 9947 +086 +079 320075 078 056 007 03
031300 1610N 05617W 6967 03061 9956 +086 +081 322072 075 054 007 00
031330 1608N 05618W 6963 03074 9953 +096 +078 320064 071 053 005 00
031400 1607N 05619W 6968 03074 9967 +091 +091 319059 063 051 005 00
031430 1606N 05621W 6965 03085 9977 +093 +092 319060 062 049 006 00
031500 1605N 05622W 6975 03077 9992 +102 +102 320057 058 046 009 00
031530 1603N 05623W 6967 03090 9986 +099 +099 320058 059 046 010 00
031600 1602N 05624W 6967 03096 9979 +098 +096 323057 060 045 007 00
031630 1601N 05626W 6967 03099 9979 +100 +089 322053 056 043 005 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

INIT 05/0300Z 16.7N 55.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 16.9N 57.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 17.5N 60.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 18.3N 62.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 19.3N 65.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 21.2N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 22.5N 76.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 24.0N 80.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

Irma didn't dip as far as the NHC had been predicting and now the next mark is 16.9N, which I predict Irma will go N of...

this last pass from recon dropped a little.. the problem also still is the wsw or west motion.. it need to turn wnw.. just becasue it did not get as far south does not mean much if it keeps moving west..then it all equalizes out ..

[tropicwatch]

INIT 05/0300Z 16.7N 55.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 16.9N 57.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 17.5N 60.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 18.3N 62.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 19.3N 65.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 21.2N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 22.5N 76.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 24.0N 80.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

Irma didn't dip as far as the NHC had been predicting and now the next mark is 16.9N, which I predict Irma will go N of...

So you expect the NWN turn so soon?

Hunters just went through center and lowest pressure was at 16.65N.

[eastcoastFL]

The Publix down the road from me is out of water already per WJXT 4. So are other ones throughout town.

There's no water in Florida. I can confirm from Palm Beach County. We are on our own.

I'm sure more will arrive tomorrow but it's going to be a stampede.

[Aric Dunn]

eyewall convection continues to deepen and expand and is in all quads.. wont be long until the pressure and winds respond..

[painkillerr]

INIT 05/0300Z 16.7N 55.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 16.9N 57.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 17.5N 60.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 18.3N 62.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 19.3N 65.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 21.2N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 22.5N 76.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 24.0N 80.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

Irma didn't dip as far as the NHC had been predicting and now the next mark is 16.9N, which I predict Irma will go N of...

this last pass from recon dropped a little.. the problem also still is the wsw or west motion.. it need to turn wnw.. just becasue it did not get as far south does not mean much if it keeps moving west..then it all equalizes out ..

Thanks Aric. That's precisely what I was hoping to hear for clarification purposes. Obviously not the best scenario for PR and the VI is it keeps tracking west.

[Aric Dunn]

Irma didn't dip as far as the NHC had been predicting and now the next mark is 16.9N, which I predict Irma will go N of...

So you expect the NWN turn so soon?

Hunters just went through center and lowest pressure was at 16.65N.

[NDG]

INIT 05/0300Z 16.7N 55.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 16.9N 57.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 17.5N 60.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 18.3N 62.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 19.3N 65.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 21.2N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 22.5N 76.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 24.0N 80.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

Irma didn't dip as far as the NHC had been predicting and now the next mark is 16.9N, which I predict Irma will go N of...

this last pass from recon dropped a little.. the problem also still is the wsw or west motion.. it need to turn wnw.. just becasue it did not get as far south does not mean much if it keeps moving west..then it all equalizes out ..

I agree with you Aric.

[LCfromFL]

The Publix down the road from me is out of water already per WJXT 4. So are other ones throughout town.

There's no water in Florida. I can confirm from Palm Beach County. We are on our own.

There was also a shortage of bread, but not for the Publix closest to me which still has some as far as I know. I'm sure/hope that they will restock in time this week depending on the forecast and if there are evacuation orders issued.

I was at the Sam's Club and Publix on Dunn Ave this afternoon...Sam's was out of water but had plenty of bread and other items. Publix had water and bread - they even had BOGO Pumpkin Spice Pepperidge Farms bread! So guess what I have now? Sam's had a ton of batteries - but I had a hard time finding the C size (finally did). Hubby started the generator and did whatever you guys do to make mechanical things run smoothly - so we are good there. With Matthew last year, we were without power for over a week. We are in a Evacuation Zone C (because of Thomas Creek behind our home).

I'm having my Hubby's Retirement Party at our home on Saturday. Irma is NOT invited! I'm still making plans for that but have a watchful eye on Irma.

[1900hurricane]

Instantaneous DT is still 6.0 for an off-white eye embedded in black and surrounded by white. However, Irma is not far off from 6.5 or even 7.0. In order for the DT to go up by 0.5, either the eye would need to warm a little bit in order to become warm-medium grey or the ring of white would have to fully surround the eye with a minimum thickness of 30 nm/0.5º. If both of these requirements are met, the instantaneous DT jumps up 1.0. If recon were not investigating Irma right now, a DT/ADT blend would probably yield a 120 kt intensity at the current moment, but strict adherence to the Dvorak Technique would only net a 115 kt intensity assuming no constraints are present (and I don't believe there would be). It is about at this intensity where the Dvorak Technique begins to slightly underestimate system intensity in many cases.

[Aric Dunn]

last hour or so .. you can see the slight wsw wobble in satellite now..

IR channel 4

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and14.html

also this is deepening quickly noww...