ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Thought this would be a good opportunity to remind folks of a great site that is still in development:

http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

The tracks provided are individual solutions of several ensemble prediction systems and provide and sense of the uncertainty involved in the track forecasts.

oh great, there wasnt enough to argue about already...

[clfenwi]

no G-IV?

Takeoff was scheduled for 1:30 PM this afternoon. I would guess about 1 hr flight time to the location of the first dropsonde release in the Northern Bahamas, so perhaps we will see that shortly.

[gatorcane]

GFDL brings a 921MB hurricane into South Florida on the 12Z.

Heads NNW up the spine of the peninsula.

The same GFDL that was forecasting a track south of Cuba this past weekend. Enough said...

But there was not center of circulation a couple of days ago...and it jumped north so you can discredit it there. Now we have a center of circulation it can initiate on.

I am not saying it will do what the GFDL says, but you can't ignore it.

The safe bet is to go with the reliable ECMWF and GFS models.

[guyclaude08]

Hello i'm in Santiago Dominican Republic it has been raining since this morning i would like to know if it's going to get worst like very windy and stuff ??? thank you

[Sanibel]

GFDL has been notoriously left so far and therefore unreliable. What is starting to drive me nuts is GFDL had a tendency to become very reliable when it comes to dangerous hurricanes like this one is quickly starting to become. So it could be off now but reliable when it comes to the steering features when it reaches GFDL's reliable range. Further, Irene is tightening-up, which isn't a good sign, and is also showing another wobble west which makes you wonder if GFDL is finally kicking-in.

[maxx9512]

GFDL brings a 921MB hurricane into South Florida on the 12Z.

Heads NNW up the spine of the peninsula.

The same GFDL that was forecasting a track south of Cuba this past weekend. Enough said...

Wxman57, I know what your saying but can't that be said about the models when you look back, that they were all off the mark?

[RL3AO]

1st G-IV dropsonde just showed up.

[Listeri69]

San Juan Radar back up, looks good at 240 NM long dist radar.....

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... ightning=0

[CronkPSU]

G-IV dropsondes are starting to come in...guess i'll be staying up late again tonight o see if it changes anything

[SouthDadeFish]

So will there be some of this data in the 00Z model runs?

[Blown Away]

Some more Joe B

Euro right on the track I have for Irene.. How about that 54 analog??? drought/heat Texas- hurricanes running east coast

Note: Latest euro shows landfall near NC.

No offense to JB, because I really like him, but he was screaming Florida and now NC. So I don't think he gets any credit for a NC hit if it happens. He is just going w/ the east trend flow like the rest of us.

[Hurricaneman]

maybe even a pinch of data for the 18z runs

[CronkPSU]

Thanks...hadn't seen any info on the G-IV and got worried it was scrubbed

[Macrocane]

Hello i'm in Santiago Dominican Republic it has been raining since this morning i would like to know if it's going to get worst like very windy and stuff ??? thank you

I'm not a pro met but Irene is located in the northeast part of D.R. and it should be moving west northwest so it still has several hours to produce rains and winds over your country, I think you may experience a little worse conditions as the cyclone is expected to intensify but the worse will be in the northern coast.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and ONAMET.

[Sanibel]

Latest wobble was NW again so I'm fairly sure it will stay offshore of Dominican and follow NHC track. Phew...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[artist]

for the GIV flight should we post the dropsondes for it?

[ozonepete]

Latest wobble was NW again so I'm fairly sure it will stay offshore of Dominican and follow NHC track. Phew...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yeah. Wobbles W, then NW. Net result is WNW.

[maryellen40]

I'm new here!

I'm not from GA but Savannah is overdue for a hurricane,isn't it?

[GTStorm]

GFDL has been notoriously left so far and therefore unreliable. What is starting to drive me nuts is GFDL had a tendency to become very reliable when it comes to dangerous hurricanes like this one is quickly starting to become. So it could be off now but reliable when it comes to the steering features when it reaches GFDL's reliable range. Further, Irene is tightening-up, which isn't a good sign, and is also showing another wobble west which makes you wonder if GFDL is finally kicking-in.

maybe it is proving your point in its significant shift to the right in this last run (i.e. coming into agreement with most everything else).

[alienstorm]

Major blow-up occuring off the NE DR coast. Intensification underway