2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Shell Mound]

Moving into the Gulf this time?

Na...another trough should eventually catch it.

Actually, the H5 pattern on this run clearly supports a track into the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. Ad verbatim, after slowing and/or stalling just off western Cuba, the system would sharply turn toward the Florida Keys. The system already begins turning sharply northward at the very end of the run. Given the amplitude of the trough, however, the system would probably still miss Florida to the east. It would probably pass just offshore of the Keys as a major hurricane, after devastating the westernmost tip of Cuba, particularly Cabo San Antonio in Pinar del Río Province. There isn’t enough ridging to push the system into the Florida peninsula.

[AxaltaRacing24]

LOL moving due E back into Cuba. I love fantasy range.

anything past 200 hours is a total crapshoot lol.

[SFLcane]

Hopefully we can cut the Florida is in the clear stuff a bit.

[Emmett_Brown]

So the message we are getting from recent runs of the GFS continues... TC formation getting more likely; it could be large, and it could be really strong.

[CourierPR]

Moving into the Gulf this time?

Na...another trough should eventually catch it.

Actually, the H5 pattern on this run clearly supports a track into the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. Ad verbatim, after slowing and/or stalling just off western Cuba, the system would sharply turn toward the Florida Keys. The system already begins turning sharply northward at the very end of the run. Given the amplitude of the trough, however, the system would probably still miss Florida to the east. It would probably pass just offshore of the Keys as a major hurricane, after devastating the westernmost tip of Cuba, particularly Cabo San Antonio in Pinar del Río Province. There isn’t enough ridging to push the system into the Florida peninsula.

Shell Mound do you have a degree in meteorology and/or atmospheric physics?

[AxaltaRacing24]

Hopefully we can cut the Florida is in the clear stuff a bit.

it is silly to draw any conclusions on the system's track right now.

currently, all we know is that there is a chance a system will form in the western caribbean around the october 19-21, and that is it.

[TheStormExpert]

What's the odds this pulls something similar to Hurricane Rina in 2011 and remains in the Western Caribbean before dying or ejecting NE?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Rina

[AutoPenalti]

Pretty interesting run, don’t think it will go below 930 though...

[aspen]

The key takeaways from this absolutely freaking bonkers 12z run:
—Development of the gyre is still around October 19th/20th, and that time frame is quickly closing in on the 5 day/120 hr mark.
—Stalling could lead to RI, if the system stalls over the high OHC pocket
—This will likely be a very complicated development and forecast track
—The 12z should really be called the Happy Hour lol

[Shell Mound]

Na...another trough should eventually catch it.

Actually, the H5 pattern on this run clearly supports a track into the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico. Ad verbatim, after slowing and/or stalling just off western Cuba, the system would sharply turn toward the Florida Keys. The system already begins turning sharply northward at the very end of the run. Given the amplitude of the trough, however, the system would probably still miss Florida to the east. It would probably pass just offshore of the Keys as a major hurricane, after devastating the westernmost tip of Cuba, particularly Cabo San Antonio in Pinar del Río Province. There isn’t enough ridging to push the system into the Florida peninsula.

Shell Mound do you have a degree in meteorology and/or atmospheric physics?

No, and I never claimed to have earned one. Most of the contributors here are not specialists, though some are degreed meteorologists. I am not sure as to why this is an issue; I don’t berate and/or question others for lacking degrees. I was analysing the GFS’s output. The system does miss FL to the east on this particular GFS run. Anyway, troughs and ridges have tended to be stronger than average during recent seasonal shifts. In particular, we have seen a lot of intense, early cold fronts and late springs in recent years, so even though the GFS tends to overestimate troughs, it could be close to reality in this case. That would be a very good thing for Florida. Again, 2020 hasn’t yet taken my bearishness as a challenge. We’ll see how this evolves.

[HurricaneBelle]

Every S2K Models Thread:

70% Blanket, categorical pronouncements made off the most recent model run, followed by "you can't trust the models" or everything past X hours is "fantasyland", or "we won't know anything until a low actually forms"

30% Actual model output and on-point discussion of same

[boca]

Anyone want to guess where the GFS 18z might end up tracking. It’s amazing the 1200 mile swing between the runs so far today.

[toad strangler]

Every S2K Models Thread:

70% Blanket, categorical pronouncements made off the most recent model run, followed by "you can't trust the models" or everything past X hours is "fantasyland", or "we won't know anything until a low actually forms"

30% Actual model output and on-point discussion of same

This post made it 28% of the latter

[Frank2]

The 12z GFS has been trending TC formation back to the end of the month - good news because when it started to delay formation in the past it never happened...

[toad strangler]

The 12z GFS has been trending TC formation back to the end of the month - good news because when it started to delay formation in the past it never happened...

Not it hasn't.

[TheStormExpert]

Pretty interesting run, don’t think it will go below 930 though...

The long-range GFS is just being its usual self with these absurd intensities, take Irma for example. Still think this has a decent shot at hurricane status and potentially a major at that.

[cheezyWXguy]

The 12z GFS has been trending TC formation back to the end of the month - good news because when it started to delay formation in the past it never happened...

GFS has been pretty consistent on forming this oct 19/20 for several days now. This run closes the low on hour 174. A number of similar comments were made in the days before gamma and delta formed

[TheStormExpert]

The 12z GFS has been trending TC formation back to the end of the month - good news because when it started to delay formation in the past it never happened...

NOPE! It still starts development on next Monday the 19th as its been doing for many days now. It just delays and slows the progression of its movement in the Western Caribbean.

[TheStormExpert]

Anyone want to guess where the GFS 18z might end up tracking. It’s amazing the 1200 mile swing between the runs so far today.

Central America? If the trough leaves it behind it may just bury itself in there. Still way too far out to take any tracks seriously. The NAO is currently negative but should slowly start trending positive the second half of the month.

[ElectricStorm]

12z GFS going nuts with that West Carib system 2 days in a row now...