ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Some big storms up and down the east coast so far from Miami to Vero

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_flanim.gif

Soley air mass induced but this soupy deep flow can result in a tropical rain dump by itself. Late tomorrow afternoon should bring discreet cells and rain bands that will no doubt bring some damaging wind gusts along with a broader envelope of tropical downpours. I'll be surprised if there's not at least a few brief tornadic events tomm. through Wednesday.

Flooding is my only concern. I’m sure it will be gusty from time to time but (fingers crossed) not enough to do damage or knock out power

[eastcoastFL]

[AtlanticWind]

I know its hard to pick out the llc and the Sat pictures can be deceiving but
it doesnt look like the system is making much westward progress atm.

[Prosepro]

A blob of rain with thunder just passed St. Pete and Tampa, and the satellite shows it developed at the farthest northern boundary of the outflow it seems. So I guess we are already starting to get some effects.

41 mph gust on Clearwater Beach.

[AJC3]

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/KBYX_loop.gif

Interesting...paints quite a different picture than the long range loop I posted a while back. Looks like Elsa's vortex has a lot more coherency from the low-mid levels than it does farther aloft. Bodes well for its future once it emerges into the Straits.

edit: after a second look, usingt a 200 frame long-range radar loop, that U/L feature was likely a VHT rotating around the center located farther NW, since It did wind up rotating back northward into the larger circulation.

[Steve]

Some big storms up and down the east coast so far from Miami to Vero

Yeah. Expect to see a few of those waves over the next couple days as the energy moves north. Every pulse up should lead to a wave of storms plus the general banding that's likely to set up as it comes up on its eastern side. My guess is there will be somewhere between 3 and 5 waves of energy coming up the peninsula with the first major one having happened today. Mesoscacles might be able to depict some of the timing if they hit it right (NAM 3km, FV3, HRRR).

[StormPyrate]

Is it east of the track?

[hipshot]

When it gets off the N coast of Cuba it wont have that southeasterly low level flow to deal with and it will be several hours before any shear is a problem

How long after the storm exits Cuba will it make the turn north/north east?

[Hurricaneman]

Is it east of the track?

It is by about 5 to 10 miles but even that small distance can mean the difference between landfall in the big bend and Tampa

[InfernoFlameCat]

Looks like landfall in Cuba might have helped stack the system?!!!!!

[Steve]

When it gets off the N coast of Cuba it wont have that southeasterly low level flow to deal with and it will be several hours before any shear is a problem

How long after the storm exits Cuba will it make the turn north/north east?

NHC, the Top [tm] performer says sometime early Wednesday morning. As you can see from the plot points, there is a western component until the 2am (6z) late tomorrow night. It should move N and then E of due north shortly thereafter.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents

[aspen]

I hope we get recon soon after Elsa gets back over open water, to determine if Elsa is FINALLY stacked after all this time.

[Cat5James]

After taking a closer look at the mid level/upper level steering, a stronger Elsa will go farther East then expected. I wouldnt be surprised to see Elsa get closer to SW FL (Naples) then currently forecast

[Category5Kaiju]

Did...did land interaction actually force the system to get stacked? Sure seems like it at least visibly

[galaxy401]

Land friction can help disorganized storms actually become more structured with a better stacked circulation. We'll see if this allows Elsa to take off after she emerges over water or another false alarm.

[NDG]

Great satellite and radar presentation but surface pressures being reported close to the LLC are still fairly high.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1412199519048044545

[robbielyn]

uh she looks to have jumped east she looks like she will hit the tip of florida. are we sure she is still going in the gulf? that would be funny cause they said the track is locked in. hmmm

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Land friction can help disorganized storms actually become more structured with a better stacked circulation. We'll see if this allows Elsa to take off after she emerges over water or another false alarm.

Didn't we see this with Isaias last year after it crossed Hispaniola? Perhaps I'm thinking of another storm though.

[blp]

Looks more NNW than NW...