ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Category5Kaiju]

You know it’s a fierce storm when lightning is literally flooding the entire eye

[Iknownothing]

With this next round of RI underway, is there a chance of Cat 5 at landfall?

[Sciencerocks]

The truth is the further south this makes landfall the stronger it will be...If it hits near Charley 2004 or ian it maybe a mid range cat4 or maybe a little stronger as in 125-135 knts. I won't say cat5 but a fort meyers storm could be. If it hits as north as Tampa it will be sheared and come in as a cat2 or low end cat3.... IF it comes in near the nhc track or most likely track it will be 110-120 knts as is forecasted by the nhc.

Moving more north drives it into the shear monster that is moving air out of it right now(aska outflow) that is currently its friend but could become an enemy.

[Chemmers]

What are the odds off it going pin hole eye again

[tulum07]

Looks like more effects on Palm Beach county now. On the edge of H-force winds.

[KC7NEC]

With this next round of RI underway, is there a chance of Cat 5 at landfall?

No, it’s going to hit wind shear as it starts moving north, which should weaken it to a high-end Category 3 or possibly a low-end Category 4 before landfall. But don’t let that downgrade fool you—the storm surge threat remains just as dangerous. Even with reduced winds, the surge can cause catastrophic impacts along the coast. Focus on the surge risk, not just the category.

[Kazmit]

The amount of misinformation I'm seeing about this storm online is insane. Conspiracies of weather modification/HAARP, people are saying it's going to strengthen before landfall rather than weaken, etc. I would laugh but so many people in the comments believe it...

[Hurricane2022]

https://i.imgur.com/0QJMSrY.gif

Levels 902 (Katrina), 900 (Camille) and 899 (Allen) have already been completed by Milton yesterday.
So here we go again, folks. The next levels of the game are: 895 (Rita), 892 (Labor Day) and 888 (Gilbert).

[Travorum]

There was very briefly a 100C difference between the eye temp and the coldest cloud tops.

[cheezyWXguy]

What are the odds off it going pin hole eye again

Depends how you define pinhole. I don’t think it’ll get down to 4nm like it was yesterday, but I think people typically call it that when it’s less than 10nm across, which would be achievable with the expected gradual contraction

[Zonacane]

What are the odds off it going pin hole eye again

As the hurricane intensifies, the eye will contract into a pinhole, it was 10 nautical miles earlier 

[Xyls]

The amount of misinformation I'm seeing about this storm online is insane. Conspiracies of weather modification/HAARP, people are saying it's going to strengthen before landfall rather than weaken, etc. I would laugh but so many people in the comments believe it...

These same people will say stuff like this and then refuse to evacuate anyways. Lol.

[Flwxguy86]

At what point does tampa/st pete be out of the cone? or won't they do that? this is the 18zs
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_18z.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... ks_18z.png

I think as long as any of those tracks are within 50 miles of the bay, There going to keep Tampa in the cone, We ain't leaving the cone even if it does slip south and make landfall, I think for one they don't want 500K pissed off residents trying to come back before the storm even gets here, and living here for over 20 years, They are going to be pissed that they left if there isn't significant damage, It's a really stupid thought process but I saw it with all the past storms that dodged us and then secondly they are afraid of leaving us out but just on the outer edge only for a slight shift to bring landfall here anyways.

[jasons2k]

The amount of misinformation I'm seeing about this storm online is insane. Conspiracies of weather modification/HAARP, people are saying it's going to strengthen before landfall rather than weaken, etc. I would laugh but so many people in the comments believe it...

It drives me insane. It’s crickets with the other ~20 storms that quietly go out to sea every season. But one hits land and suddenly “they” did it with weather machines. Whoever “they” are

God help us if this is the level of critical thinking these days.

[Highteeld]

eye temperature is skyrocketing

[Flwxguy86]

Plotted 4:00am 12 & 24 hr forecast points to refer to while only having spare moments to peek at what Milton is up to. Um, the storm shot south and east of its 18Z forecast point. There's a distinction between a wobble and forward motion. Would one better define the distinction by time (hours) or by distance traveled (miles)? That's not meant to be a rhetorical question btw.

I just looked at WFlA's Wobbletracker and it has went pretty far east of the track the NHC has, It could always correct back to that line later but I am seeing what your seeing, If it doesn't correct back to that line soon it could really throw things off way down the line. Maybe the will address it at the next advisory.

[Highteeld]

There was very briefly a 100C difference between the eye temp and the coldest cloud tops.

https://i.imgur.com/pEwrJy8.png

that is super elite territory. I used to track that statistic. Almost all instances of it were western pacific typhoons

[USTropics]

https://i.imgur.com/0QJMSrY.gif

Do hurricanes usually have no lightning in most of their CDO?
Only in the eyewall and outer bands? Or is this unusual?

That's correct, and typically only in the eyewall. The reason is, traditionally lightning needs some sort of charge (i.e., When there is a net transfer of positive energy from the cloud to the ground). So how do we get lightning when there is no ground? The answer comes down to updrafts and the physical properties of clouds.

The eyewall of a hurricane is where the most intense convection occurs, driven by rapid upward motion of warm, moist air. These strong updrafts are essential for generating the charge separation needed for lightning. In the eyewall, air rises quickly, cools, and condenses to form clouds, which helps build electrical charge. The stronger the updrafts, the greater the potential for lightning. We can also see similar updrafts in some of the outer bands, by a similar process. This is where dry air intrusions can hit an inflow channel and cause a temporary drop in instability (i.e., the moist air parcel, relative to the dry air, becomes super buoyant and rises quickly).

Outside the eyewall, particularly in the broader CDO region, convection tends to be weaker. The CDO often consists of stratiform clouds and steady rain, with less vigorous upward motion compared to the eyewall. Since charge separation relies on strong convection to move ice particles, graupel, and other charged particles, the weaker convection in the CDO is insufficient to generate significant lightning.

So essentially, lightning occurs when there is a separation of charges within the storm, often involving ice crystals, graupel, and supercooled water droplets. The intense convection in the eyewall allows for more ice formation and more efficient charge separation (we can look at IR satellite imagery to see temperature, which is proportional to altitude/pressure coordinates), which is less common in the more stratiform, less convective regions of the CDO.

[floridasun]

tending more closer to fort mayer area bit south of tampa area i hope people that area looking at nhc adv.

SEFL mets have become increasingly interested in this afternoons motion, models are interesting but the real weather is too, lets see how long this motion holds. Every bit of motion matters, especially in this situation with the surge and tb.

who met talk about this Stift?

[Chemmers]

It feels strange to say that a hurricane off 155mph and 923mb is RI, I wonder if it will beat last night 898mb?