Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Coastal Flood Warning / High Surf Warning Updated

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
911 PM AST MON DEC 28 2009

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF ALL THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ALONG WITH VERY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED COASTAL
FLOODING...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-002-290900-
/O.CAN.TJSJ.CF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-091229T0400Z/
/O.EXT.TJSJ.CF.W.0001.091229T0111Z-091230T0000Z/
/O.EXT.TJSJ.SU.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-091230T2200Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.SU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-091230T0000Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.CF.A.0002.091230T0000Z-091230T2200Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
911 PM AST MON DEC 28 2009

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM AST TUESDAY...
...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM AST TUESDAY...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM
AST WEDNESDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS UPGRADED THE COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WHICH WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM AST TUESDAY. A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM AST TUESDAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM AST WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

LARGE...LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...RESULTING IN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF ALL OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THESE SWELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BREAKING WAVES
OF 15 TO 20 FEET...OR LARGER...ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED
SHOALS...REEFS AND BEACHES OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

IN ADDITION...A SECOND BATCH OF LARGER NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS...WITH
VERY LONG WAVE PERIODS OF 14 TO 16 SECONDS...WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT...PEAKING TUESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING THROUGH MID-WEEK. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE EVEN
LARGER BREAKING WAVES OF 20 TO 25 FEET...OR GREATER...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.

SIMILAR SWELL EVENTS OF THESE SIZES AND DURATION HAVE ALSO PRODUCED
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ALONG PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
ESPECIALLY DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDES. SINCE COASTAL FLOODING OF
LOW LYING COASTAL ROUTES IN BOTH VEGA BAJA AND PINONES HAS ALREADY
BEGUN...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE
NORTHERN COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL 8 PM AST TUESDAY
EVENING. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORT THAT HIGHWAY 686 IS
NOW IMPASSABLE. HIGHWAY 187 MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE LATER TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS COASTAL FLOODING IS OCCURRING...IS
IMMINENT...OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
PEOPLE IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

A HIGH SURF WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN BREAKING WAVE ACTION RESULTS IN
ESPECIALLY HEIGHTENED THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY WITHIN THE SURF
ZONE.

A HIGH SURF WARNING INDICATES THAT DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES WILL
POUND THE SHORELINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS...DEADLY RIP CURRENTS...AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE WATERS UNTIL THESE
HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS SUBSIDE...WHICH WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...PERSONS AT THE BEACH SHOULD BE
VIGILANT FOR LARGE BREAKING WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN
CARRY PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES INTO THE OCEAN. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID BEING
NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND STAY OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

THESE EXTREMELY LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND
DANGEROUS CURRENTS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE
NARROW OUTWARD FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY
FROM THE COAST LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP
CURRENT...DO NOT PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR
BEARINGS RELATIVE TO THE BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU
WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND MAY BE
ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM TO SHORE.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION WILL
BE DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

THE TIMES AND HEIGHTS OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 1.7 FEET AT 7:12 AM TUESDAY MORNING

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 1.4 FEET AT 8:06 AM TUESDAY MORNING

CHRISTIANSTED ST CROIX: 0.9 FEET AT 6:48 AM TUESDAY MORNING

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION
ON THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE SITUATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[lrak]

http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Cra ... st/six_day

http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Cra ... eather_map


Bummer about the deaths , I've seen some really crazy stuff (and people) on BIG BIG days, the kind days that shake the beach are the days I sit and watch or find shelter from the swell.

[cycloneye]

http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/CrashBoat/forecasts/latest/six_day

http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Cra ... eather_map


Bummer about the deaths , I've seen some really crazy stuff (and people) on BIG BIG days, the kind days that shake the beach are the days I sit and watch or find shelter from the swell.

I think you do the right thing to not surf on extreme wave conditions. Surfers did a great job saving a boy from being swept away by rip currents.If you go to the first post of the thread you will see several cams in beaches.Link of surfing fans in PR below.

http://www.comoestaeso.com/cms/home/37- ... a-ocho-cam

[lrak]

I feel for anyone whose out of their element in extreme conditions. SCARY. I sure don't like it LOL. I have a friend named Ernest who lives on Oahu and surfs the big stuff and a friend Kyle whose moving to France and he'll be surfing COLD and big...yuck, he's totally ready for it .

I'll stick with head high Mexico waves in the summer.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Here is this mornings update of the high waves event.

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
451 AM AST TUE DEC 29 2009

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF ALL THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ALONG WITH VERY DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED COASTAL
FLOODING...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-002-291700-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.SU.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-091230T2200Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.CF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-091230T0000Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.SU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-091230T0000Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.CF.A.0002.091230T0000Z-091230T2200Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
451 AM AST TUE DEC 29 2009

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS
EVENING...
...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM AST WEDNESDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

A HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING.
IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
6 PM AST WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM AST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

LARGE...LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...RESULTING IN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTLINES OF ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THESE
SWELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BREAKING WAVES OF 15 TO 20
FEET...OR LARGER...ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED SHOALS...REEFS AND
BEACHES OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

IN ADDITION...A SECOND BATCH OF LARGER NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS...WITH
VERY LONG WAVE PERIODS OF 14 TO 16 SECONDS...WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON...
BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH MID-WEEK. THESE SWELLS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE EVEN LARGER BREAKING WAVES OF 20 TO 25 FEET...OR
GREATER...ALONG WITH FREQUENT AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS...RESULTING
IN CONTINUED EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.

SIMILAR SWELL EVENTS OF THESE SIZES AND DURATION HAVE ALSO PRODUCED
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ALONG PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
ESPECIALLY DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDES. SINCE COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW
LYING COASTAL ROUTES IN BOTH VEGA BAJA AND PINONES HAS ALREADY
BEGUN...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE
NORTHERN COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL 8 PM AST TUESDAY EVENING.
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED FLOODING PROBLEMS AT
HIGHWAYS 686 AND 187. THIS FLOODING SITUATION WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS COASTAL FLOODING IS OCCURRING...IS
IMMINENT...OR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PEOPLE
IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY. LISTEN TO LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

A HIGH SURF WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN BREAKING WAVE ACTION RESULTS IN
ESPECIALLY HEIGHTENED THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY WITHIN THE SURF
ZONE.

A HIGH SURF WARNING INDICATES THAT DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES WILL
POUND THE SHORELINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS...DEADLY RIP CURRENTS...AND SEVERE BEACH EROSION.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE WATERS UNTIL THESE
HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS SUBSIDE...WHICH WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...PERSONS AT THE BEACH SHOULD BE
VIGILANT FOR LARGE BREAKING WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN
CARRY PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES INTO THE OCEAN. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID BEING
NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND STAY OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

THESE EXTREMELY LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND
DANGEROUS CURRENTS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE
NARROW OUTWARD FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY
FROM THE COAST LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP
CURRENT...DO NOT PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR
BEARINGS RELATIVE TO THE BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU
WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND MAY BE
ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM TO SHORE.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION WILL
BE DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

THE TIMES AND HEIGHTS OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 1.7 FEET AT 7:12 AM THIS MORNING

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 1.4 FEET AT 8:06 AM THIS MORNING

CHRISTIANSTED ST CROIX: 0.9 FEET AT 6:48 AM THIS MORNING

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION
ON THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE SITUATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[cycloneye]

Morning discussion of most highest waves event this decade

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST TUE DEC 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION AND MAINTAIN AN OVERALL DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WEAK LOW LEVEL/FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS
THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD...AS STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES
AND SPREADS WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. IN THE MEANTIME A FAIRLY LIGHT EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...UNTIL THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK WHEN THE WIND FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
DEPICTED OVERALL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. PREVIOUS TJSJ UPPER AIR 00Z SOUNDING...
AS WELL AS THE LATEST GFS FORECAST SOUNDING...SUGGEST FAIRLY DRY
AND STABLE AIR MASS TO PREVAIL WITH PWAT VALUES DECREASING TO WELL
BELOW 1.50 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAINING FAIRLY GOOD SUBSIDENCE
CAP AROUND 700 MILLIBARS. THEREFORE EXPECT LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

THEREAFTER...EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK AS FRAGMENTS OF FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. THIS IN TURN
WILL INCREASE THE NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW AND INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. WILL
HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS.

ON A MORE IMPORTANT NOTE...DUE TO THE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND
MARITIME CONDITIONS...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND HIGH SURF WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM AST THIS EVENING. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT
FURTHER DETERIORATING SURF CONDITIONS TODAY...AS THE NORTH NORTHEAST
SWELLS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PEAK UNTIL AROUND 18Z TODAY. VISITORS
AND LOCAL BEACH GOERS SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL
THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS SUBSIDE...WHICH WILL NOT BE UNTIL
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK. IN ADDITION...PERSONS AT THE BEACH
SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE BREAKING WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...
WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES INTO THE OCEAN. PEOPLE SHOULD
AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND STAY OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND REFER TO LATEST
SJUCWFSJU AND SJUMWWSJU FOR THE LATEST MARINE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL
TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN A LIGHT ESE WIND FLOW OF 5-15
KTS. VA FROM MONTSERRAT CURRENTLY AVOIDING THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...BUT MAY AFFECT TKPK OR TISX IF THE WIND SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY. TJSJ 29/0000Z SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 5K FEET...BECOMING EASTERLY FROM 5-20K
AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.

[cycloneye]

The members can have an idea of how big these waves and dangerous the rip currents are by looking at the cams at first post of thread and going thru these photos.

http://www.elnuevodia.com/fotogaleria/653406/

[cycloneye]

Midday Discussion

Important the message this discussion has in its second paragrafh.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1058 AM AST TUE DEC 29 2009

.UPDATE...SWELL EVENT CONTINUES TO BE NUMBER ONE CONCERN...WITH
VERY DANGEROUS SURF TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24-72 HOURS.
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING THE PEAK OF THIS EVENT WITH BUOY 41403
HAVING REPORTED 13 FOOT SWELLS AT 16 SECONDS. CALCULATIONS SHOW
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AROUND 20 TO 25 FOOT BREAKERS ALONG REEFS AND
ROCKY COASTLINES...AN ESTIMATE WELL CONFIRMED BY SEVERAL
OBSERVATIONS. SEVERAL REPORTS OF COASTAL FLOODING ALSO
IN...INCLUDING PARQUE BARBOSA OF THE SAN JUAN AREA...AND A COASTAL
ROAD CLOSURE IN VEGA BAJA. THERE ARE LIKELY MANY MORE AREAS BEING IMPACTED.

WOULD LIKE TO STRESS THAT GOING TO THE BEACH TO VIEW THESE SWELLS
SHOULD BE DONE WITH CAUTION...ALWAYS STAYING AT LEAST 50 FEET FROM
WHERE YOU SEE THE WATER. THE REASON BEING...EVERY ONE IN ONE
HUNDRED WAVES CAN POTENTIALLY BE ABOUT TWICE AS HIGH AS THE AVERAGE
WAVE. THAT MEANS THAT A ROGUE 30 OR 40 FOOT BREAKING WAVE IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS PRESENTS A CLEAR DANGER TO PEOPLE
WATCHING THE WAVES FROM ROCKY OUTCROPS ALONG THE COAST. THERE MAY
SEEM TO BE NO APPARENT DANGER...AND ALL OF A SUDDEN A LARGE
BREAKER CAN APPEAR WHICH IS MUCH BIGGER THAN THE REST OF THE
WAVES. SO BE SAFE AND STAY A SAFE DISTANCE FROM THE WATER.

[cycloneye]

Off topic from the swell event,there has been an eruption of the Soufriere volcano at Montserrat,although it was not a big one,is sufficient to send a good deal of ash towards Puerto Rico and the Virgin islands.You can find more information at the Soufriere volcano thread on the Astronomy and Geology forum.

viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107244&p=1955043#p1955043

[cycloneye]

Latest discussion of big swells event


To add more things apart from the big swells event,there is the ash factor that I mentioned earlier.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
422 PM AST TUE DEC 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...STILL EXPECT MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
MAINTAINING A CAP ON MOST SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...NOW EXPECT A SHEAR LINE TO CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MOVE VERY NEAR THE LOCAL ISLANDS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SWELL EVENT CONTINUES TO BE NUMBER ONE CONCERN...
WITH VERY DANGEROUS SURF TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24-48+
HOURS. CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING THE PEAK OF THIS EVENT WITH BUOY
41403 HAVING REPORTED 13 FOOT SWELLS AT 16 SECONDS. CALCULATIONS
SHOW THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN AROUND 20 TO 25 FOOT
BREAKERS ALONG REEFS AND ROCKY COASTLINES...AN ESTIMATE WELL
CONFIRMED BY SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS. SEVERAL REPORTS OF COASTAL
FLOODING ALSO IN...INCLUDING PARQUE BARBOSA OF THE SAN JUAN
AREA...AND A COASTAL ROAD CLOSURE IN VEGA BAJA. THERE ARE LIKELY
MANY MORE AREAS BEING IMPACTED.

HAVE LEFT THE HIGH SURF WARNING AND THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING...AFTER WHICH WE WILL GO BACK TO A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND POSSIBLY BACK TO A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO REFER TO SJUCFWSJU AND OTHER LOCAL PRODUCTS FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION.

VERY IMPORTANTLY...WE WOULD LIKE TO STRESS THAT GOING TO THE
BEACH TO VIEW THESE SWELLS SHOULD BE DONE WITH EXTREME CAUTION...
ALWAYS STAYING AT LEAST 50 FEET FROM WHERE YOU SEE THE WATER. THE
REASON BEING...EVERY ONE IN ONE HUNDRED WAVES CAN POTENTIALLY BE
ABOUT TWICE AS HIGH AS THE AVERAGE WAVE. THAT MEANS THAT A ROGUE
30 OR 40 FOOT BREAKING WAVE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THIS
PRESENTS A CLEAR DANGER TO PEOPLE WATCHING THE WAVES FROM ROCKY
OUTCROPS ALONG THE COAST. THERE MAY SEEM TO BE NO APPARENT
DANGER...AND ALL OF A SUDDEN A LARGE BREAKER CAN APPEAR WHICH IS
MUCH BIGGER THAN THE REST OF THE WAVES. SO BE SAFE AND STAY A SAFE
DISTANCE FROM THE WATER.

&&

.AVIATION...VA VISIBLY AFFECTING TISX...AND WILL BE MOVING OVER
TIST...TJSJ...TJPS AND TJBQ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SIGMET PUTS
ENTIRE ISLAND OF PR AND ALL USVI UNDER VA BY OR AROUND 18 TO 20Z.
HAVE GONE MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THAT TIMING...WITH ASH HITTING
EASTERN SITES FIRST...AND TJBQ LAST...LIKELY AFTER 21Z. BY
19Z...EXPECTING VA OVER TJSJ. NOT CONFIDENT ON WHEN ASH WILL CLEAR
OUT...AND NIGHT TIME MAKES OBSERVING ASH NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE...SO WILL
KEEP VA IN TAFS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...VERY LARGE...LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO PEAK ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING.
THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE EXTREMELY ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL
PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...NEW...
LONG PERIOD...NORTH SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THURSDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...MAINTAINING HAZARDOUS SEAS.
PLEASE REFER TO SJUCWFSJU AND SJUMWWSJU FOR THE LATEST MARINE
INFORMATION.

[Gustywind]

Not much changes to the previous forecasts given Meteo-France. The strong swell continues in Guadeloupe! Be very prudent my carib friends! Observations from Meteo-France show that some big waves have reached 6 meters today,... hopefully things will improve tomorrow and Thursday with a swell down to 2m50 but another deterioration is anticpated for the first day (Friday) of 2010 Let's continue to monitor closely the situation. I have not any informations about the possible damages, whereas seems that at LE MOULE numerous fishermans are not able to fish easily with this very rough sea, for many they prefered let their boat off the beach.

Off topic, it seems that another big strike is expected in Guadeloupe for the beginning of January. Price of the fuel is to much expensive that's why the "LKP" could comeback in the streets to fight against this thing... something to monitor closely too. Remember the 20th of January? When the first big strike begans, let's hope that this scenario won't pan's out, if not that would be once again a pretty catastrophic period for many shops, etc and the purely all the citizens of the island.

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

Coastal Flooding Warning and High Surf Warning Cancelled,replaced by Watch and Advisory

The swells will begin to subside starting on Wednesday afternoon,but still is very dangerous.

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
804 PM AST TUE DEC 29 2009

...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
EXPOSED COASTLINES OF ALL THE LOCAL ISLANDS ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RIP CURRENTS AND COASTAL FLOODING...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-002-300815-
/O.CAN.TJSJ.CF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-091230T0000Z/
/O.CAN.TJSJ.SU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-091230T0000Z/
/O.EXT.TJSJ.SU.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-091230T2200Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.CF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-091230T2200Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
804 PM AST TUE DEC 29 2009

...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AST WEDNESDAY...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...HIGH SURF WARNING IS CANCELLED...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT
THROUGH 6 PM AST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

VERY LARGE...LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN SO...EXPECT DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 20 FEET...TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXPOSED REEFS...SHOALS AND COASTLINES
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF
HIGH TIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW OUTWARD
FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT
PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE TO THE
BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE
THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM TO
SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS ARE URGED
TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR LARGE BREAKING
WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES
INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR THE SHORE LINE AND STAY
OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION
WILL BE DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

THE TIMES AND HEIGHTS OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS ARE:


SAN JUAN HARBOR: 1.8 FEET AT 8:05 AM TOMORROW MORNING
0.9 FEET AT 6:49 PM AST TOMORROW AFTERNOON

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 1.6 FEET AT 8:52 AM TOMORROW MORNING

CHRISTIANSTED ST CROIX: 1.0 FEET AT 7:29 AM TOMORROW MORNING

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
COASTAL FLOODING...CAUSING INUNDATION OF COASTAL ROADS...LOW
LYING AREAS...AND BEACH EROSION. RESIDENTS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS
SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS IN CASE COASTAL
FLOODING OCCURS OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. THIS SITUATION WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED. WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME...COASTAL RESIDENTS
SHOULD MAKE IMPORTANT PRELIMINARY PLANS TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE AND
PROPERTY.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MARINE SITUATION FROM YOUR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

[cycloneye]

Not much changes to the previous forecasts given Meteo-France. The strong swell continues in Guadeloupe! Be very prudent my carib friends! Observations from Meteo-France show that some big waves have reached 6 meters today,... hopefully things will improve tomorrow and Thursday with a swell down to 2m50 but another deterioration is anticpated for the first day (Friday) of 2010 Let's continue to monitor closely the situation. I have not any informations about the possible damages, whereas seems that at LE MOULE numerous fishermans are not able to fish easily with this very rough sea, for many they prefered let their boat off the beach.

Off topic, it seems that another big strike is expected in Guadeloupe for the beginning of January. Price of the fuel is to much expensive that's why the "LKP" could comeback in the streets to fight against this thing... something to monitor closely too. Remember the 20th of January? When the first big strike begans, let's hope that this scenario won't pan's out, if not that would be once again a pretty catastrophic period for many shops, etc and the purely all the citizens of the island.

Keep us informed of any news from the French islands.

[Gustywind]

Not much changes to the previous forecasts given Meteo-France. The strong swell continues in Guadeloupe! Be very prudent my carib friends! Observations from Meteo-France show that some big waves have reached 6 meters today,... hopefully things will improve tomorrow and Thursday with a swell down to 2m50 but another deterioration is anticpated for the first day (Friday) of 2010 Let's continue to monitor closely the situation. I have not any informations about the possible damages, whereas seems that at LE MOULE numerous fishermans are not able to fish easily with this very rough sea, for many they prefered let their boat off the beach.

Off topic, it seems that another big strike is expected in Guadeloupe for the beginning of January. Price of the fuel is to much expensive that's why the "LKP" could comeback in the streets to fight against this thing... something to monitor closely too. Remember the 20th of January? When the first big strike begans, let's hope that this scenario won't pan's out, if not that would be once again a pretty catastrophic period for many shops, etc and the purely all the citizens of the island.

Keep us informed of any news from the French islands.

OK Luis as possible .

[cycloneye]

Latest Discussion

Some showers will move thru the NE Caribbean and the wind direction from the north will help move the ash out of the area.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1059 PM AST TUE DEC 29 2009

.UPDATE...SEAS FROM THIS LATEST SWELL EVENT PEAKED AT BUOY 41043
TO OUR NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
EXPOSED COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLIER THIS EVENING. DUE TO
DECREASING SWELLS...DECIDED TO CANCEL HIGH SURF WARNING AND
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WHEN THEY EXPIRED AT 8 PM AST...HOWEVER
CONTINUED WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TILL
THE EVENT COMES TO AN END LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

WEATHER WISE...EXPECT THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTHWEST TO HELP SPARK SOME SHOWERS OVER THE VI AND NORTHERN
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLANDS
TOMORROW. DO NOT FORESEE WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS BOUNDARY AS IT LINGERS NEAR THE LOCAL ISLAND TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY...BUT DID BUMP THE POPS AND CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS TO MATCH LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE DATA.

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BELOW 10 THOUSAND FEET
AND THE VOLCANIC ASH IN THE AREA IS BEING CARRIED INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. VA SHOULD CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BEGINNING AT TJSJ
BETWEEN 30/06-12Z AND AT ALL STATIONS BY 30/18Z. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS WILL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE SEEN AT TJBQ AND TJMZ AFT 30/16Z. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE AFTER 31/00Z BUT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN BEYOND THIS TIME.
MVFR MAY BE ENCOUNTERED AT TNCM AND TKPK AFT 30/21Z.

[cycloneye]

Good morning to all.Winter-type weather returns to NE Caribbean as scattered showers and fresh NE brezzes are here! Swells are going down slowly.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST WED DEC 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT OR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FA. HOWEVER...AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL EMERGE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...INCREASING THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AND SATELLITES IMAGES EARLY
THIS MORNING...DEPICTED ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS AND CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE VERY CLOSE TO THE FA DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...MAINTAINING A PATTERN OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEW YEAR DAY. HOWEVER...A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN AN OVERALL DRY AND
STABLE UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL
ACT TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR HEAVY OR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FA. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EMERGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...INCREASING THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AND LOWERING THE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

SEAS PEAKED AT BUOY 41043 TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXPOSED COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY
EVENING. THESE LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR THOSE REASONS...THE
HIGH SURF WARNING AND THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN
EXPOSED COASTLINES OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WERE CANCELLED ON TUESDAY
EVENING. EVEN SO...EXPECT DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH
BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 20 FEET...TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
EXPOSED REEFS...SHOALS AND COASTLINES OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE IN
EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FLYING AREA DURING THE REST
OF THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
PASSING SHRA TO THE NORTH COASTAL SECTIONS OF PR...AND MAINLY THE
NORTHERN USVI. PREVAILING VFR CONDS ARE HOWEVER FCST AT MOST LOCAL
TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR IN THE PASSING SHRA IN AND AROUND
TJSJ...TJBQ...AND TIST AT LEAST TIL 30/11Z. INTMT MTN TOPS
OBSCURATIONS ALSO PSBL WITH PASSING SHRA OVR PR TIL 30/12Z. THE
SHIFT IN THE WIND FLOW BLW 12K FT SHOULD CLEAR ANY TRACES OF VA
FROM ACROSS THE AREA AND KEEP THE MONTSERRAT/TRPG ASH AND GAS
EMISSIONS IF ANY...SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA TODAY.

[cycloneye]

Yes!!!! Winter-type weather here.Scattered showers and very fresh NE breezes ending the above normal temperatures that have been with us and also to move away the ash plume.More about that on the Soufriere volcano thread at the Geology subforum as part of Global Weather forum.

[cycloneye]

Updated discussion

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1013 AM AST WED DEC 30 2009

.UPDATE...FRONTAL SHEAR LINE PUSHING THROUGH CWA WITH WIND SHIFT
AND CONVERGENT BAND OF SHOWERS OVER NORTH COAST. DENSITY BOUNDARY
LIKELY BEHIND MASS OF CLOUDS EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY...IN OTHER
WORDS NORTH OF AREA ABOUT 100 MILES...AS BUOY 41403 SHOWING TEMPS
AND DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED BEHIND BOUNDARY. EXPECTING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH NUMEROUS RANGE POPS OVER NORTH COAST OF PR...AND
SLIGHTLY LESS IN USVI AS DENSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAPPED UNDER A
VERY DRY AND STABLE MID TO UPPER ATMOSPHERE. MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWING SOLID NE FLOW UP TO THE MID LEVELS WITH 20 KNOTS JUST OFF
THE SURFACE. NAM12 AND WRF BOTH INITIALIZING WELL AND SHOWING
SHEAR LINE TO DRAG ESE AND STALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH 00Z
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH RANGE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST PR THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTERWARD...REMNANT MOISTURE FROM SHEAR AND COLD FRONTS TO KEEP
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION PUMPING IN AS WINDS TURN A BIT MORE
TOWARDS THE EAST. NOT LIKELY TO BE OUT OF THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH HIGH RANGE PASSING SHOWERS UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING.


.AVIATION...BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FLYING AREA DURING THE REST
OF THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
PASSING SHRA TO THE NORTH COASTAL SECTIONS OF PR...AND MAINLY THE
NORTHERN USVI. PREVAILING VFR CONDS ARE HOWEVER FCST AT MOST LOCAL
TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR IN THE PASSING SHRA IN AND AROUND
TJSJ...TJBQ...AND TIST AT LEAST TIL 30/11Z. INTMT MTN TOPS
OBSCURATIONS ALSO PSBL WITH PASSING SHRA OVR PR TIL 30/12Z. THE
SHIFT IN THE WIND FLOW BLW 12K FT SHOULD CLEAR ANY TRACES OF VA
FROM ACROSS THE AREA AND KEEP THE MONTSERRAT/TRPG ASH AND GAS
EMISSIONS IF ANY...SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA TODAY.

[cycloneye]

Updated High Surf Advisory and Coastal Flood Watch

Despite the waves going down slowly,its still very dangerous to go to the beaches and of course to go out in a boat.

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1153 AM AST WED DEC 30 2009

...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
EXPOSED COASTLINES OF ALL THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH RIP CURRENTS
AND POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOODING...

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-002-302200-
/O.CON.TJSJ.SU.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-091230T2200Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.CF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-091230T2200Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
1153 AM AST WED DEC 30 2009

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS
EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS
EVENING...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING.
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS EVENING.

LARGE...LONG PERIOD...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THESE SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...WITH BREAKING
WAVES OF 10 TO 18 FEET ALONG THE NORTHERN EXPOSED REEFS...BEACHES
AND SHOALS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. IN
ADDITION...SOME VERY LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS...MAINLY DURING THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE STRONG AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS
WITHIN THE SURF ZONE...CALLED RIP CURRENTS. THESE NARROW OUTWARD
FLOWING CURRENTS CAN CARRY PEOPLE AND ANIMALS AWAY FROM THE COAST
LINE AND OUT TO SEA. IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT
PANIC. CALMLY...REMAIN AFLOAT...GATHER YOUR BEARINGS RELATIVE TO THE
BEACH...AND SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH. YOU WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE
THE GRIP OF THIS NARROW CURRENT...AND BE ABLE TO SAFELY SWIM TO
SHORE.

LOCAL BEACH GOERS...AND INEXPERIENCED SURFERS AND SWIMMERS ARE
URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS SUBSIDE. PERSONS ON THE BEACH SHOULD BE VIGILANT FOR
LARGE BREAKING WAVES SURGING UPON THE SHORE...WHICH CAN CARRY
PEOPLE OF ALL SIZES INTO THE OCEAN. YOU SHOULD AVOID BEING NEAR
THE SHORE LINE AND STAY OFF OF ROCK FORMATIONS.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION WILL
BE DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

THE TIME AND HEIGHT OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATION ARE:

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 0.8 FEET AT 6:49 PM THIS EVENING

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR COASTAL
FLOODING...CAUSING INUNDATION OF COASTAL ROADS...LOW LYING AREAS...
AND BEACH EROSION. RESIDENTS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED
TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS IN CASE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURS OR
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. THIS SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. WHILE
THERE IS STILL TIME...COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD MAKE IMPORTANT
PRELIMINARY PLANS TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE AND PROPERTY.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS DANGEROUS MARINE SITUATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.