Texas Winter 2013-2014

[texas1836]

Well I guess we all should just go out this weekend and plant our tomatoes. Plant the corn early too and we can avoid corn borers.

It would be one heck of a crop if it lasted. However I'm sure we're not done yet with freezing temps, so I'd stick with onions for right now.

[weatherdude1108]

Maybe Winter isn't over quite yet. EWX had a "teaser" at the end of their long term discussion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST THU JAN 9 2014/
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MILD AND DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...SO WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE COOL...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL DIVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN CHANGES OVER THE
CONUS TO A WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH. EXPECT WEAK FRONTS TO
ACCOMPANY EACH TROUGH PASSAGE...TENDING TO BRING INCREASING COLDER
AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A SLOW COOLING
TREND AND LOWERING HUMIDITY. THE LOWER HUMIDITY AND POTENTIALLY
GUSTY WINDS WITH FRONTS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK COULD BRING
ELEVATED RISK FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD. EVEN THOUGH BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SOME MODEL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER
ARCTIC OUTBREAK AROUND JAN 18-20. THOSE WITH PLANS FOR OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY SHOULD DO SO THIS COMING WEEKEND RATHER THAN NEXT IF
POSSIBLE.

[wxman57]

Well I just checked in at the gardening forum weather thread and there your fellow Americans are praying you fellows don't get your way!!! They've been posting pictures like mad of *their unwanted blessings* and they sure aren't pleased. I did note however there is quite the snowpack down there.

The lady from California though would happily take any and all snow at this point...she's been posting a number of links to stories regarding the historic drought in California.

I thought it would be interesting to contrast Moose Jaw with Houston using the 06Z GFS. Looks like you'll be above freezing this weekend and a little bit next week. I like our winter temperature forecast for the next week better:

[Ntxw]

It's good to see that activity in this thread has quieted down so much. I have my hand on the Texas thermostat and I'm cranking it up! Perhaps I should start the Texas Summer thread so we can start posting our thoughts on how many times the temperature will rise above 100F? Looking forward to a couple of long bike rides this weekend.

I will go first! Toba will reawaken and erupt simultaneously with Katla and cover the earth in a dark cloud meanwhile El Nino cranks in the Pacific. Constant rain and clouds persists from May to September and Boston sees snow in July. The (second) year without a summer and Houston clocks in 0 100 days.

[Portastorm]

It's good to see that activity in this thread has quieted down so much. I have my hand on the Texas thermostat and I'm cranking it up! Perhaps I should start the Texas Summer thread so we can start posting our thoughts on how many times the temperature will rise above 100F? Looking forward to a couple of long bike rides this weekend.

And folks, he did it!

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=116110

This is going to take a lot more than the PWC to overcome Heat Miser's rise to glory. Every Texas-based winter weather lover has to summon up whatever powers they can manage. We have to take back control of the thermostat.

[Ntxw]

All is not lost my friends, looking at wxbell teleconnections forecasts they are still pointing to EPO tank, NAO going very negative, AO very negative, PNA is meh but back and forth. We just have to survive this thaw and wxman57's bombardment.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Winter isnt over knuckleheads , just reloading the bazooka. Over a month worth of potential nastiness.

[Ntxw]

Let me post this to remind everybody that the anomalous warm pool (still amongst the warmest ever for this time of year) is still there along with 500mb anomalous block. Years like 89 that had the pool in December faded in January and flipped to a warm winter. Not the case here, the strength and duration is still equal/similar of nature in this region to 1899, 1962, and perhaps the early to mid 1910s.

[dhweather]

The 12Z GFS is rolling in, has highs in southern/eastern Canada +30F above average. Yep, winter is over.

It's impossible for cold to be sustained, particularly this far south. After a major Arctic event, warming is expected. So we will thaw for the next 7-10 days and watch to see if around the 18th-20th becomes more promising.

[Ntxw]

The 12Z GFS is rolling in, has highs in southern/eastern Canada +30F above average. Yep, winter is over.

It's impossible for cold to be sustained, particularly this far south. After a major Arctic event, warming is expected. So we will thaw for the next 7-10 days and watch to see if around the 18th-20th becomes more promising.

Someone give this man a beer! Yes this, we live in Texas not Chicago or Cleveland. It doesn't stay 40s all the time straight through winter from November to March even in the coldest years. 60s and 70s are a lot more common than we probably think. When you see 70s for 3 weeks in a row and cool for 2 days in 2011-12 then we should be worried.

[dhweather]

Oh no, 12Z at 72 hours has temps in eastern Canada 40F+ degrees above normal. Definitely the end of winter. Ignore those negative anomalies in western Canada.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Good news, folks.

The only time in recent memory we had real snow in Austin was in February of 2010, conveniently while I was in Australia. Well guess what? Beginning Saturday for a week and a half, I will be back in Australia during our winter for the first time since that glorious weather event.

This means, of course, that it is a foregone conclusion that Austin will see snow while I'm not around to enjoy it.

Congrats, Porta! I'm the sacrificial lamb.

Cheers,
Cameron

[orangeblood]

Let me post this to remind everybody that the anomalous warm pool (still amongst the warmest ever for this time of year) is still there along with 500mb anomalous block. Years like 89 that had the pool in December faded in January and flipped to a warm winter. Not the case here, the strength and duration is still equal/similar of nature in this region to 1899, 1962, and perhaps the early to mid 1910s.

But one thing I've noticed about the - EPO is that it doesn't appear to be as potent without the - WPO. These two in tandem do work wonders for much colder weather across the southern plains. Unfortunately, the trend has been for the WPO going positive over the next few weeks thus lessening the influence of the - EPO across our part of the world. I believe this is do to the fact that the negative WPO/EPO combination creates much more cross polar flow while a + WPO forces more Northern Pacific air into Alaska/Western Canada. Please correct me if I'm wrong but is something I've noticed over the past few years.

[Portastorm]

Good news, folks.

The only time in recent memory we had real snow in Austin was in February of 2010, conveniently while I was in Australia. Well guess what? Beginning Saturday for a week and a half, I will be back in Australia during our winter for the first time since that glorious weather event.

This means, of course, that it is a foregone conclusion that Austin will see snow while I'm not around to enjoy it.

Congrats, Porta! I'm the sacrificial lamb.

Cheers,
Cameron

Hurry up ... get out of here!

Seriously, have a safe and enjoyable trip. From all accounts you'll be experiencing wxman57's type of weather as I've heard much of Australia is broiling in the triple digits. Maybe you can take him with you?!

P.S. -- I doubt it'll snow in Austin while you're gone. Seriously doubt it.

[Ntxw]

Let me post this to remind everybody that the anomalous warm pool (still amongst the warmest ever for this time of year) is still there along with 500mb anomalous block. Years like 89 that had the pool in December faded in January and flipped to a warm winter. Not the case here, the strength and duration is still equal/similar of nature in this region to 1899, 1962, and perhaps the early to mid 1910s.

But one thing I've noticed about the - EPO is that it doesn't appear to be as potent without the - WPO. These two in tandem do work wonders for much colder weather across the southern plains. Unfortunately, the trend has been for the WPO going positive over the next few weeks thus lessening the influence of the - EPO across our part of the world. I believe this is do to the fact that the negative WPO/EPO combination creates much more cross polar flow while a + WPO forces more Northern Pacific air into Alaska/Western Canada. Please correct me if I'm wrong but is something I've noticed over the past few years.

Yes I do agree those two together creates Prolific cold over the NA continent. But I'm not saying we are going to see record Arctic blasts into the conus. Having half of that combo is better than none and the warm water just enhances whatever -EPO we get. In terms of averages it will still be cold overall IMO thanks to for the most part the EPO blocking maximum Pacific air into the US. The signal points to at least some cold into the continent as the PV in large part remains in our side of the globe. There is a lobe of tremendous cold air in Siberia currently we will need to tap into that for something more.

There is also currently tropical activity in the vicinity of the Philippines which I believe will receive invest status and possible strengthening (refer to wpac thread). This probably is wrecking havoc on WPO thinking but I'm not skilled in looking at that index. In short none of it is a warm signal, it's a transient moderation spell followed by the same persistent connections that have controlled winter so far.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Good news, folks.

The only time in recent memory we had real snow in Austin was in February of 2010, conveniently while I was in Australia. Well guess what? Beginning Saturday for a week and a half, I will be back in Australia during our winter for the first time since that glorious weather event.

This means, of course, that it is a foregone conclusion that Austin will see snow while I'm not around to enjoy it.

Congrats, Porta! I'm the sacrificial lamb.

Cheers,
Cameron

Hahahaha, love it. Ntx, great analysis. 1899 would be sweet and all but we need some moisture. .22 of rain at the house so far!

[Ntxw]

And here if you don't believe the -EPO has consistently been beating on the models that try to break it down for good this is what happened. Right smack dab in the middle of wxman57's house the past 2 months (composite).





Snow is a different beast though, we need more than just cold. Lets hope ENSO warms the next few weeks so we can kick off a true STJ

[Portastorm]

GFS operational runs for the last 24 hours show an absolute blow torch over much of the nation in the next 15 days, especially for Texas.

Euro op run and ensembles offer a sliver of hope at or about 192 hours out. Still looking (next 2 weeks) grim in my book.

[wxman57]

I wouldn't call the conditions below "blowtorch", but I would say they're a good bit less cold than the previous week's temperatures. Low 70s with sunshine will feel quite nice on my 5-hr bike ride on Sunday (compared to 30s and cloudy).

[Portastorm]

Sorry but to me this (below) is a blow torch, especially in "winter" months. Damn map is about to make me cry.



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