ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Blinhart
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3461 Postby Blinhart » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:28 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
aspen wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Aite, now will the NHC finally bump this to major hurricane strength in the next hour or will they first see how it fairs with the NW tip of Cuba?

I’m thinking they’ll go with a peak of 95 kt for this advisory, and then bump it to a MH peak once it finally clears Cuba.


Close. 90kts for now . I’m still pretty sure that M will be on the map at some point


I wouldn't be shocked to see the M at the 10 pm CST, with maybe 120 as the speed.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3462 Postby Blinhart » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:29 pm

cfisher wrote:This seems relevant right now.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1297917272846209026


The problem with this tweet, it has to be from this morning when she looked like that.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3463 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:29 pm

Recon is taking off from the Carolinas...it’s gonna be a while before they arrive, which should leave 2-3 hours for us to argue over where the center of Laura is.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3464 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:30 pm

Western Cuba isn't actually all that mountainous besides a small ~10 mile wide range north of Pinar del Río, should cross those in a hurry. Many storms have been largely unaffected by Cuba passage but mostly strong storms like Gustav and Dennis took a major hit; kind of a crapshoot to determine how much it'll cause an impact.
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3465 Postby cfisher » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:30 pm

Probably not relevant until there's an inner core, but ADT Adj T# up to 3.4
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3466 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:32 pm

EquusStorm wrote:Western Cuba isn't actually all that mountainous besides a small ~10 mile wide range north of Pinar del Río, should cross those in a hurry. Many storms have been largely unaffected by Cuba passage but mostly strong storms like Gustav and Dennis took a major hit; kind of a crapshoot to determine how much it'll cause an impact.


Exactly, if Laura's trip over Hispaniola didn't kill it Cuba sure as heck ain't, regrettably. :(
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3467 Postby catskillfire51 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:33 pm

Hurricane watches put up from Galveston to Morgan City, LA
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3468 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:34 pm

aspen wrote:Recon is taking off from the Carolinas...it’s gonna be a while before they arrive, which should leave 2-3 hours for us to argue over where the center of Laura is.


A NOAA recon took off a few minutes ago from Lakeland.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3469 Postby shiny-pebble » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:38 pm

If it can keep this structure and tighten some after crossing Cuba, it could intensify more earlier on in my amateur and unprofessional opinion. It has a pretty decent structure right now.

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3470 Postby Hurrilurker » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:45 pm

Looks like it's really starting to fill in on the west side finally, should really start to come together quickly if the shear & dry air are relaxing.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3471 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:45 pm

Blinhart wrote:
Rail Dawg wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
So where are you planning on going to as of right now? I'm sure you can find hotels here in Crowley or in Jennings, which would give you a chance of going down to Hwy 14, I wouldn't suggest going any further south than that because of the potential Storm Surge.


When chasing it is always to a parking lot garage nearest landfall. The height above ground and the cement stairwells are a great location. Am still analyzing Laura and I always sleep in the truck. Hotels are impossible except for the news crews who always seem to end up with luxury accommodations lol.

In Michael there were some young chasers with me in the parking garage in Panama City. We knew the eye was going to be about 5 miles to our east (Mexico Beach) and they were determined to go see it. I told them VERY emphatically that they were risking their lives. They were live-streaming on YouTube. They went.

Sure enough I watched the live-stream of their car getting slammed with storm-surge waves and then floating. They bailed and went through the 185 mph winds in a house that they found. I watched houses and businesses explode from the gusts where I was at in the eyewall.

The moral of the story is chasing is a high-risk adventure but if you start small, learn the ropes, have a plan and have an escape plan the risks are greatly reduced.

Chuck


The problem with if you want to do Cameron Parish, there is nothing there that would give you safety from a Cat 3-4 storm surge if it does come in at Sabine Pass, Vermillion Parish is the same way. You wouldn't have any secure locations that you would be able to use, they even evacuate the fire departments, there wouldn't be any place for you to stay. I was talking about for tomorrow night for you to stay and have a good night sleep before heading out Wednesday morning for you scout and find a secure spot.


There are some industrial facilities in Intracoastal City, and he could probably find something safe in Abbeville. But I wouldn't jack around with most of those other little towns. They're surge prone.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3472 Postby Hurricane Mike » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:48 pm

Kazmit wrote:Looking better on the western side as new convection pops up there.

https://iili.io/dUdzpR.gif


She's starting to suck in moisture from the Gulf
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3473 Postby cfisher » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:48 pm

This west band looking healthy, but the circulation still seems broad. Not sure where it will try to tighten up..
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3474 Postby Nimbus » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:52 pm

Starting to pull some moisture south through the Yucatan channel to rejuvenate the convective wrap.
Recon will have a long flight home to the Carolinas.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3475 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:54 pm

Well on its way to establish an inner core.

Image
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3476 Postby Blinhart » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:54 pm

Steve wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
Rail Dawg wrote:
When chasing it is always to a parking lot garage nearest landfall. The height above ground and the cement stairwells are a great location. Am still analyzing Laura and I always sleep in the truck. Hotels are impossible except for the news crews who always seem to end up with luxury accommodations lol.

In Michael there were some young chasers with me in the parking garage in Panama City. We knew the eye was going to be about 5 miles to our east (Mexico Beach) and they were determined to go see it. I told them VERY emphatically that they were risking their lives. They were live-streaming on YouTube. They went.

Sure enough I watched the live-stream of their car getting slammed with storm-surge waves and then floating. They bailed and went through the 185 mph winds in a house that they found. I watched houses and businesses explode from the gusts where I was at in the eyewall.

The moral of the story is chasing is a high-risk adventure but if you start small, learn the ropes, have a plan and have an escape plan the risks are greatly reduced.

Chuck


The problem with if you want to do Cameron Parish, there is nothing there that would give you safety from a Cat 3-4 storm surge if it does come in at Sabine Pass, Vermillion Parish is the same way. You wouldn't have any secure locations that you would be able to use, they even evacuate the fire departments, there wouldn't be any place for you to stay. I was talking about for tomorrow night for you to stay and have a good night sleep before heading out Wednesday morning for you scout and find a secure spot.


There are some industrial facilities in Intracoastal City, and he could probably find something safe in Abbeville. But I wouldn't jack around with most of those other little towns. They're surge prone.


That is what I was trying to explain, I wouldn't suggest any storm chasers to go South of Hwy 14 , definitely not Hwy 82
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3477 Postby psyclone » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:54 pm

Watches with the 5 pm seem very reasonable. a storm headed for a corner of the gulf is trouble. water sloshes most efficiently at the end of a bathtub. add in a broad and shallow shelf with a decent sized windfield...trouble. 7-11' around southwest LA... i believe it. this could well be a case where the gale and storm force wind radii matter more than peak intensity as size of the windfield is of huge importance to water rise. when the ocean is in motion...get out of the way and live to fight another day.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3478 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:55 pm

NDG wrote:
aspen wrote:Recon is taking off from the Carolinas...it’s gonna be a while before they arrive, which should leave 2-3 hours for us to argue over where the center of Laura is.


A NOAA recon took off a few minutes ago from Lakeland.

Looks like that one will arrive somewhere between 7:00 and 7:20 pm ET.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3479 Postby cfisher » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:57 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Well on its way to establish an inner core.

https://i.imgur.com/MFihLwz.jpg

2 potential vorticity maxima?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3480 Postby Hurricane Mike » Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:58 pm

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