ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[hurricanefloyd5]

It would be funny if this storm heads right into florida somewhere, But I am noting saying this will happen but wouldn't it be funny (strange) if it did though??????

[Stormcenter]

Yep hjeat content is very high drezee, easily high enough for a top end hurricane but whether conditions will allow for it is another matter, odds on though we get a major hurricane out of this, I think this will start RI this time tomorrow.

You may get one in the NW Carribean but will conditions (upper level) in the GOM sustain one.

[jasons2k]

I'm not saying this will hit New Orleans, but this is important:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080823/ap_ ... g_the_past

A more recent analysis shows the start of 84 of 156 projects was delayed — 15 of them by six months or more. Meanwhile, a critical analysis of what it would take to build even stronger protection — 500-year-type levees — was supposed to be done last December but remains unfinished.

Another opportunity for setbacks: The corps says it will need more than 100 million cubic yards of clay and dirt to build up levees — enough to fill the Louisiana Superdome 20 times.

Also on the corps' drawing board are gigantic pumps capable of pushing more than 20,000 cubic feet of water per second. For comparison, the biggest pumps in New Orleans move about 6,000 cfs every second and they're among the most impressive in the nation.

That's not all: The corps has awarded The Shaw Group a $695 million contract to build a massive barrier against storm surge in the Industrial Canal. It's touted as one of the biggest public works projects ever performed by the agency.

Publicly, the corps says the work is on budget and will be done by 2011.

"The progress I see each time I visit is really remarkable. The region has a better hurricane and storm damage reduction system in place than ever before in its history — and it will continue to get better," Lt. Gen. Robert Van Antwerp, the corps chief, wrote on his blog in April.

Yes, this is why I cringe when some people post that New Orleans has made significant progress and there should not be any flooding major problems with (fill in storm name). That's just not the case.

[Tampa DMB Fan]

Hey guys I'm new to the board. Just want to say I enjoy reading all your comments.

[Javlin]

I found this info about oil production losses but what I found more interesting there analysis of best performing track(model) in the 2nd pic,just food for thought.Sounds like some of WX57 line of work.Kevin

http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/data/todindex.html

[THead]

Sorry if this is a silly question, but what is this HWRF model? Is it new or something that has changed names recently? I've been around here for years and for some reason I don't recall ever hearing/seeing it before!

google.com or try this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_ ... ting_model

Thanks. I wanted to get a good old storm2k.org answer rather than a google.com answer, thanks RL3AO too.

Is there a reason why it hasn't completely replaced the GFDL yet, and they are still running both?

[RL3AO]

Is there a reason why it hasn't completely replaced the GFDL yet, and they are still running both?

Not sure if they plan to stop running the GFDL soon, but so far its been better than the HWRF.

[Stormcenter]

I was almost tempted to start a new topic for this, but, it's important to mention the NE wind flow ahead of Gustav:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

since that is mentioned in the TCD as northerly shear, that does not make for the most favorable environment...

The NHC mentions it so I'm sure it will be a player.
It could mean the difference between a Cat.1 or Cat.3 storm in
the GOM.

[Wx_Warrior]

Models will be west tonight, east tomorrow, little west friday...etc....weekend is a biggie...

OT: Hotels in NE Texas are filling up quick!

[Ivanhater]

Well Im still giving this another day before I get to worried...but if this time tomorrow still has it in north central gulf..preps must be taken

I would be concerned if lived anywhere along the Gulf coast. Anyway I'm not sure
if it was mentioned already but the NHC in their 11pm discussion mentioned
SW shear (again) in the GOM and said that Gustav could between a Cat.1-3 hurricane.
I didn't sense the catastrophic (Cat.4-5)type of tone in their discussion like
yesterday. Maybe he won't be as bad as first thought wherever he ends up.

Cant agree with you more..hopefully we wont have a situation like Ivan or Katrina, where they were cat 5 and the surge stayed the same even tho the hurricanes weakened...still time to watch

[KWT]

Frank2...thats the eastern edge of the upper high, I think its probably whats imparting the shear now onto Gustav but iots forecast to extent eastwards and slowly center further east hence why a weakness forms in the gulf.

Should keep strength in check for the enxt 24hrs but after that conditions become very good it seems for strengthening, NW Caribbean looks primed for RI IMO.

[Frank2]

Yes, but, there is also considerable SW shear in the north-central Gulf at this time (also per the TCD), so, Gustav has alot ahead of it - again, every situation is different, so, folks on the Gulf coast should not keep comparing this to Katrina (though I can understand their concern)...

[gatorcane]

Yes, but, there is also considerable SW shear in the north-central Gulf at this time (also per the TCD), so, Gustav has alot ahead of it - again, every situation is different, so, folks should not keep comparing this to Katrina...

Frank I agree, in fact the latest GFS run shows a lopsided sheared system in the GOM...due to the SW to NE shear you mention (I see it in the WV loop also)

I wonder if the GFS intensity forecast is going to verify?

[lrak]

Models will be west tonight, east tomorrow, little west friday...etc....weekend is a biggie...

OT: Hotels in NE Texas are filling up quick!

This is all I'm looking FOR!


ONE THING THAT IS LIKELY...SWELLS MAY BEGIN IMPACTING THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY.

I get BBQ and SURF for Labor Day Weekend!


http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?sit ... glossary=1

[Frank2]

Tampa DMB Fan,

Thanks from all here - as you can tell, everything posted here is just our own opinion...

[KWT]

Yes, but, there is also considerable SW shear in the north-central Gulf at this time (also per the TCD), so, Gustav has alot ahead of it - again, every situation is different, so, folks on the Gulf coast should not keep comparing this to Katrina (though I can understand their concern)...

Remember what Derek said, our forecast models of upper feature is very poor, I wouldn't put too much faith into the idea that shear will weaken this system hugely if its only at cat-2/3...however I think this wil be WAY stronger then the NHC forecast by the time this comes into Cuba, maybe upto Dennis type strength IMO.

I'm still really liking the Lili track. that SW airflow really isn't all that strong, its the flow round the upper HIGH...would think thats a pretty decent set-up actually and will really help the outflow I reckon.

[deltadog03]

Actually I see an outflow channel possibly!! If he is just a bit east of the NHC then this could only HELP him strengthen...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126l.gif

[ConvergenceZone]

Yes, but, there is also considerable SW shear in the north-central Gulf at this time (also per the TCD), so, Gustav has alot ahead of it - again, every situation is different, so, folks on the Gulf coast should not keep comparing this to Katrina (though I can understand their concern)...

It would be kinda funny if we only end up with a tropical storm in the gulf of mexico due to all the shear...It could happen

[cycloneye]

Some members haved mentioned Hurricane Lili redux track.Lets see if it pans out.

[Stormcenter]

Yes, but, there is also considerable SW shear in the north-central Gulf at this time (also per the TCD), so, Gustav has alot ahead of it - again, every situation is different, so, folks on the Gulf coast should not keep comparing this to Katrina (though I can understand their concern)...

Remember what Derek said, our forecast models of upper feature is very poor, I wouldn't put too much faith into the idea that shear will weaken this system hugely if its only at cat-2/3...however I think this wil be WAY stronger then the NHC forecast by the time this comes into Cuba, maybe upto Dennis type strength IMO.

I'm still really liking the Lili track. that SW airflow really isn't all that strong, its the flow round the upper HIGH...would think thats a pretty decent set-up actually and will really help the outflow I reckon.

I'm just going by what the NHC is saying you can come to your own conclusion
as how strong you think Gustav will be.