ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Recon left Lakeland and the pressure was already 1007 it’s been falling as they head south. I guess being between the 2 systems Florida just has a lower pressure right now

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... A_zoom.png

[eastcoastFL]

Ok the center is undeniable now. that is right next to the radar. a good bit west of the 11am advisory and likely to miss all the terrain. and stay plenty offshore.

https://i.ibb.co/C01q5kn/Capture.png

How will this effect landfall? More East or West?

You would think it could mean more west but it’s too soon to tell. The nhc may expect it to wobble a little East as it crosses Cuba and the net will even out and be on track. This far out the track isn’t going to be nailed down to a T yet. Expect it to be 100 miles either way.

[Nederlander]

Ok the center is undeniable now. that is right next to the radar. a good bit west of the 11am advisory and likely to miss all the terrain. and stay plenty offshore.

https://i.ibb.co/C01q5kn/Capture.png

How will this effect landfall? More East or West?

It’s likely just stairstepping it’s way around the southern periphery of the ridge. I think the strength of Laura in the Gulf is going to dictate East or west, but pretty good consensus on SW LA right now if the projected strength is correct. If it’s stronger, nearly all of the GFS and Euro Ensembles call for a TX hit.

[eastcoastFL]

So 2 flights are headed for Laura now. NOAA and AF. That should get some good data for the models tonight.

[Hurrilurker]

Last few hours cloud tops are starting to go below -80, look out.

[StormPyrate]

So what will keep Laura in check after it exits cuba? If anything

[tolakram]

Recon left Lakeland and the pressure was already 1007 it’s been falling as they head south. I guess being between the 2 systems Florida just has a lower pressure right now

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... A_zoom.png

Do not hotlink images (use the IMG tag) unless you upload to an image site first, especially from tropical tidbits which is already suffering from bandwidth issues. Note to all. Thanks.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

So what will keep Laura in check after it exits cuba? If anything

Perhaps nothing, given the setup, which is very concerning. Let's all hope something unexpected happens to negatively affect Laura.

[Fancy1001]

So what will keep Laura in check after it exits cuba? If anything

Time. Just have to hope that the RI isn't severe, and that an ERC occurs.

[cfisher]

Also this more recent wide swath of -80s cloud tops might steer Laura further west due to more interaction with the upper level westerly flow.

[aspen]

The first recon plane is already at Cuba. It got there way earlier than I expected, so now it looks like it will get a center pass if Laura before landfall.

[Nederlander]

So what will keep Laura in check after it exits cuba? If anything

Core structure (looks healthy now, but will have to see after the final land trek) and time. Not seeing anything else to hinder strengthening

[cfisher]

A stronger storm near-term begets a more westerly track which begets a stronger storm, and so on. Next 12-24 hours are critical.

[supercane4867]

So what will keep Laura in check after it exits cuba? If anything

Upper-level pattern is as ideal as you can get for a tropical cyclone to rapidly intensity. MPI in that region is around 900mb so that will be the ceiling for it.

[Kazmit]

So what will keep Laura in check after it exits cuba? If anything

Nothing that can be forecasted. Things like structural problems and EWRCs are hard to predict.

[Kingarabian]

So what will keep Laura in check after it exits cuba? If anything

Upper-level pattern is as ideal as you can get for a tropical cyclone to rapidly intensity. MPI in that region is around 900mb so that will be the ceiling for it.

https://i.imgur.com/rGoJKqz.png

It's sub 900mb near the Texas coast though.

[Nimbus]

Recon found surface pressures of 995.6 already just off the south coast of Cuba.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

So what will keep Laura in check after it exits cuba? If anything

Nothing that can be forecasted. Things like structural problems and EWRCs are hard to predict.

Indeed, which is why a universally accurate (or closer to such) intensity forecast method for tropical cyclones is the golden goose of synoptic/tropical meteorology. Track forecasting has improved dramatically over the past twenty years, intensity forecasting not so much.

[Frank P]

Yeah I know its pretty far away but looking at this radar loop out of the Keys sure looks NW to me.... then again might not be an accurate presentation of what is actually going on in the system this far away... need more RECON
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

[Steve]

Chuck,

I agree with blinhart, and he knows that area way better than me since I've only ever been that far down once. But remember you can't come from the west at the Gulf. There is a ferry barge that continues the highway going east that way into Intracoastal City. There may be other roads to get there from the north or northwest, but if you're coming from around Holly Beach and Cameron, you'll likely have to go up to come back down as they won't be running that.