Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[x-y-no]

Looks like she might be perfecting herself for some more strengthening than predicted over the gulf, maybe back to a Cat 4 even.

That's really unlikely, unless she stays way south (see 0z ECMWF). The more likely track into the Naples area would have too much shear for such strengthening. Probably strong Cat 2 landfall at worst.

[ronjon]

Looks like she might be perfecting herself for some more strengthening than predicted over the gulf, maybe back to a Cat 4 even.

That's really unlikely, unless she stays way south (see 0z ECMWF). The more likely track into the Naples area would have too much shear for such strengthening. Probably strong Cat 2 landfall at worst.

I agree eventually - but over the next 24 hours I could see it easily going to a CAT 3 or 4 if it drifts back over the water soon. It will likely pass very near the Loop Current in the GOM which would add some fuel to her. I agree after 24 hrs, the shear monster should intrude, but if shes a CAT 4 I only see Wilma dropping down one category prior to landfall due to some fast motion.

[x-y-no]

Looks like she might be perfecting herself for some more strengthening than predicted over the gulf, maybe back to a Cat 4 even.

That's really unlikely, unless she stays way south (see 0z ECMWF). The more likely track into the Naples area would have too much shear for such strengthening. Probably strong Cat 2 landfall at worst.

I agree eventually - but over the next 24 hours I could see it easily going to a CAT 3 or 4 if it drifts back over the water soon. It will likely pass very near the Loop Current in the GOM which would add some fuel to her. I agree after 24 hrs, the shear monster should intrude, but if shes a CAT 4 I only see Wilma dropping down one category prior to landfall due to some fast motion.

OK ... that's a point. If she drifts out northeastward into the channel rather than off the north coast as forecast, then she could linger over the loop current for a while before being picked up. I guess that's a valid possibility, if a little lower probabilty than the forecast track.

[x-y-no]

I guess since we're discussing Cat 4 possibility, I should post a closeup of the 3 day frame of the 0Z ECMWF, which has a Cat 4 SE of Miami:



Note: I don't claim this will verify.

[TS Zack]

If this storm were to hit near Naples/Punta Gorda. Tampa would probably recieve Tropical Storm Force Conditions.

Once the front drops down it will squash this thing. At the same time the wind field will begin to spread out as it interacts with the trough.

Number 1, how strong will Wilma be. She better get her tail off land soon! I got to give her cudos for holding-up for so long but if she doesn't get off land, there may only be a Tropical Storm left. Once back in the Gulf, there will not be a very large window for strengthening and then slow weakening, thereafter.

[gtalum]

If this storm were to hit near Naples/Punta Gorda. Tampa would probably recieve Tropical Storm Force Conditions.

Near Punta Gorda, maybe but not near Naples.

Naples is another 60+ miles further away from Tampa than Punta Gorda is.

[jlauderdal]

I guess since we're discussing Cat 4 possibility, I should post a closeup of the 3 day frame of the 0Z ECMWF, which has a Cat 4 SE of Miami:



Note: I don't claim this will verify.

ok you had your fun and that will be enough of that..

[tampaflwx]

Take a look at the last couple frames of satellite imagery. Wilma's eye (it is trying to reform one) appears to be moving NW.

[CHRISTY]

[gtalum]

Take a look at the last couple frames of satellite imagery. Wilma's eye (it is trying to reform one) appears to be moving NW.

it's moving generally NNW-N. It's wobbling NE and NW and balancing out just ever so slightly west of due north. Right on the NHC track, coincidentally enough.

[tampaflwx]

Where are the 12z models?

[CHRISTY]

so if that is correct theres potential for strenthen especially if it travels threw that warm spot.

[WindRunner]

Where are the 12z models?

A few pages back . . .

[quandary]

It seems Wilma still has no trouble (after 12 hours on land and 20+ hours of hugging the coast) wrapping convection around to the weaker overland side. In fact, it seems that convection has been wrapping around better than earlier, although clearly the eye is gone now. The big question (esp for the pro mets) is will the core of the storm hold out until it gets over water again?

The second question is what will happen to the tenacious core after it gets out over water (if it still exists, or if it in a weakened state-- the core, not the storm itself). Tenacity is really just a sign of a favorable environment with one or two factors withstanding, so once those factors, in this case, land interaction, decline, will the storm bomb? Or will it proceed as forecast?

[HURAKAN]

It seems Wilma is in no hurry to get away from the Yucatan Peninsula, right now it seems to be stationary.

[krysof]

It seems Wilma is in no hurry to get away from the Yucatan Peninsula, right now it seems to be stationary.

if she stays there for more time, there will nothing left there, damage beyond recognition

[x-y-no]

Derak Ortt's 11am forecast is up. He puts the storm at 100kt now, says it will weaken to 70kt before getting back out over water and reintensifying a bit.

Seems reasonable to me.

[tampaflwx]

http://s4m.us/uploads/adc9975fdc.gif

[CharleySurvivor]

Pssst....please keep Punta Gorda out of this discussion ok? LOL... We had enough of Charley last year.

[Brent]

HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242005
1500Z SAT OCT 22 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 87.0W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE 325SE 150SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 87.0W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 87.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.7N 87.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.8N 84.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.6N 82.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 100SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 33.5N 72.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 42.0N 60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 47.5N 47.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 87.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

FORECASTER KNABB