Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Brent]

outlier GFS still has some brief mixed precip in DFW Sunday afternoon as the arctic air floods in

11 Monday morning vs. 9 last run Maybe its slowly starting to cave

1052 mb high over Kansas again

[Cpv17]

18z GFS still has the severe cold spell. High pressure peaks at 1059mb over the Dakotas and Nebraska. It’s closing in on 5 days out and still has the cold. That’s impressive it’s still sticking to its guns. It’s been very consistent on this and doesn’t keep pushing it back.

[Snowman67]

Very impressive cold along the US/ Canada border this afternoon. Many places in the teens below zero...

[Ntxw]

Very impressive cold along the US/ Canada border this afternoon. Many places in the teens below zero...

Yeah this is what gives you pause. Its bitter cold RIGHT NOW. If that wasn't the case we'd brush it off more

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

NWS Corpus is not too confident about the long range. I think 12z model run showing the 1060 scared the poop out of alot of the NWS offices in Texas. BTW we were supposed to be in 60's tomorrow and Thursday and that ain't going to work out. That was according to the EURO and Garbage Forecasting System (GFS) as of last week.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

Unsettled and a bit uncertain are the themes for the long term
period. Coastal troughing brings us continued cool and cloudy
conditions area-wide with light rain mostly across the southern two-
thirds of the region through Friday. Temperatures are expected to
remain well below average.

Expecting a brief warm-up on Saturday ahead of an approaching cold
front. Just how strong the front will be remains to be seen given
the divergence in the medium range guidance with their mass fields.
Leaned more towards the EC and WPCGuide for sensible weather impacts
NYE and to start off the new year. Thought the GFS was just too
bonkers with another 1060+MB Canadian high pressure spreading into
the Northern Plains and sending a very cold airmass all the way into
South Texas. Favored a less amplified solution and keep temperatures
chilly and the weather wet.

As said before, uncertainty/very low confidence is the word(s) for
the later half of the period. Assuming the front does come through
on Sunday, and not as cold as the GFS, we keep the northeast winds
in place with continued isentropic lifting occurring within the
lower levels allowing for continued light rain to occur along the
Coastal Bend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 48 49 43 53 47 / 40 40 30 20 30
Victoria 42 45 40 51 43 / 40 40 30 20 20
Laredo 46 47 42 52 46 / 40 30 30 10 30
Alice 46 48 42 54 46 / 40 40 30 20 30
Rockport 46 50 43 54 47 / 40 40 30 30 30
Cotulla 44 45 41 51 45 / 40 30 30 10 20
Kingsville 48 49 43 54 48 / 40 40 30 20 30
Navy Corpus 49 53 45 56 50 / 40 40 30 30 30

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Watch the Euro cave to the GFS next.

Yes, i'm biased. #Merica

[gpsnowman]

Has there ever been an instance when the Euro caved to the GFS in a set up like this? I mean the GFS is holding steady while the Euro has been slightly wavering. Which one is bluffing and which one will lay down the straight flush?

[stormlover2013]

Guys I’ve been saying this whole time to not trust the Gfs it’s been bad the last 3 weeks with how many winter storms and freezes, euro hasn’t been much bette but it hasn’t been going over board like the Gfs

[Ntxw]

Guys I’ve been saying this whole time to not trust the Gfs it’s been bad the last 3 weeks with how many winter storms and freezes, euro hasn’t been much bette but it hasn’t been going over board like the Gfs

You'll have to present more evidence why a run is good or bad than just they have been bad. Otherwise you'll be just guessing which isn't much better than the models.

[bubba hotep]

Very impressive cold along the US/ Canada border this afternoon. Many places in the teens below zero...

Yeah this is what gives you pause. Its bitter cold RIGHT NOW. If that wasn't the case we'd brush it off more

This current batch of cold slides off to the east over the next couple of days. It's the cold that builds in Canada after that the GFS dumps. 18z GFS had a slight shift towards the 12z Euro over the NPAC. Will we continue to see a shift towards the middle from both models or will one fold? I'm betting on some big shifts over the next 24hrs in the models lol

[Ntxw]

Has there ever been an instance when the Euro caved to the GFS in a set up like this? I mean the GFS is holding steady while the Euro has been slightly wavering. Which one is bluffing and which one will lay down the straight flush?

Both have been right and wrong over the other many times. Euro generally scores higher globally overall so a beatdown of it at this range is not an easy feat.

[Brent]

yeah, they're probably both wrong.

I'm guessing we'll see an arctic outbreak that will be coldest of the year but probably won't be close to some of the extreme analogs mentioned.

I more hope there's precip when its cold enough...

[Ntxw]

Very impressive cold along the US/ Canada border this afternoon. Many places in the teens below zero...

Yeah this is what gives you pause. Its bitter cold RIGHT NOW. If that wasn't the case we'd brush it off more

This current batch of cold slides off to the east over the next couple of days. It's the cold that builds in Canada after that the GFS dumps. 18z GFS had a slight shift towards the 12z Euro over the NPAC. Will we continue to see a shift towards the middle from both models or will one fold? I'm betting on some big shifts over the next 24hrs in the models lol

Yeah, the crossover from Siberia. But its nice to know it is cold. 2011-2012 kept showing cold 2 weeks out but there was never really cold air to begin with. I'm just glad we have some on our side of the globe in a second leg Nina!

[bubba hotep]

I think we can thank the MJO as it has interfered with the background state. Also, It is looking like the Phase 2/3 emergence is real. That could retrograde the pattern giving Texas more shots at wet wx.

[Tammie]

Here's Ryan Maue's (Weather.us) thoughts on why not to trust the GFS.

"I'd be careful looking at GFS temperatures & anomalies for 2 reasons:
(1) GFS model is awful
(2) The climatology used (CFSR) is based upon the 2007-2009 versions of GFS.
Stick to ECMWF HRES M-Climate for only apples-to-apples comparisons out there."

[srainhoutx]

So yesterday the so called King Euro had a healthy looking Coastal Nor'easter and today nada. Never trust the Global models fully beyond 2 to 3 days. Even the ECMWF had a near 1060 high settling into the Central Plains last week for this weekend. I couldn't get anyone to wager on that solution when it was mentioned. How quickly we forget how badly the model forecasts where just 48 hours ahead of the biggest widespread snowfall across the Gulf Coast States since 1895 back on December 7th and 8th.

[JayDT]

Exactly! So what I think is if we can’t or we’re not supposed to trust one model, then its also fair enough to say we can’t trust the other one either

[Ntxw]

The fact that we are arguing if its going to be just cold or brutal cold is remarkable. Better than sitting at 70 saying pattern flip in two weeks

[JayDT]

The fact that we are arguing if its going to be just cold or brutal cold is remarkable. Better than sitting at 70 saying pattern flip in two weeks

I was thinking this same thing a while ago lol..

This must be what the people up north argue about. We should consider ourselves lucky right now lol

[gpsnowman]

https://youtu.be/Og7-6YubuS4
Or As the World Turns