ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

Am thinking 906mb and 165 mph

[Iceresistance]

I have never seen ADT this high before

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SBlHm.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SBlHm.png

He got up to a 7.7 earlier when at his previous peak

It wasn't the final ADT that made it that high

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...MILTON BACK TO CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...
...FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD GET THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND
EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 87.5W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES

[skillz305]

Cat 5 - 167mph

[ConvergenceZone]

910 mb winds 160 mph... bank it..

All the pressure drops people are talking about and it's only going to increase 5 mph? that doesn't seem right.

I only missed it last time by I think about 3 mb... thinking it will take time for the winds to catch up with the pressure... I just wanted to be the outlier just in case since no one else was... going to find out soon though

You will probably be right. I forgot that winds take awhile to catch up to the pressure drops

[Iceresistance]

This part actually scared me

...FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD GET THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND
EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO...

[kevin]

I have never seen ADT this high before

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SBlHm.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SBlHm.png

Highest CI's observed in the Atlantic basin in the last 10 years.

Milton (2024) = 7.7 (1st peak)
Milton (2024) = 7.4 (2nd peak)

Irma (2017) = 7.3
Eta (2024) = 7.3
Michael (2018) = 7.2
Maria (2017) = 7.1
Lorenzo (2019) = 7.1
Iota (2020) = 7.0
Matthew (2016) = 7.0
Beryl (2024) = 6.9
Ian (2022) = 6.9
Lee (2023) = 6.8

[wx98]

Agree with them going back to Cat 5 with the much improved satellite appearance and T# around 7.3-7.6.

[Charleswachal]

I have never seen ADT this high before

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SBlHm.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SBlHm.png

He got up to a 7.7 earlier when at his previous peak

It wasn't the final ADT that made it that high

Code: Select all

2024OCT08 031020 [b] 7.7[/b]  897.8 161.0  [b]7.7 7.8 7.8[/b]  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF  OFF  OFF -28.65 -79.73  EYE/P  -99 IR  22.4   21.80   89.92  ARCHER  GOES16 30.5


it was a 7.7 final number with a 7.8 raw number and a 7.8 adjusted number

[Stormgodess]

LIVE WOBBLE TRACKER: Hurricane Milton’s wobbles off path, could have huge impacts

https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-t ... pacts/amp/

Is there a LIVE Wobble Tracker?

[WaveBreaking]

Going with 890-895 mbar and 150-165kts

[FLpanhandle91]

Kermit is in the air and halfway there already. We will have double low-level recon for the next few hours. Sit back, grab your favorite beverage, and F5 like crazy!

[loon]

 https://x.com/MikeD2061383/status/1843753114555560064

this is pretty crazy to see parroted all over the internet right now.. HAFS-A had this exact track.. when its at the corner of 23 north and 87 it will be exactly where it was supposed to be.

Its like the people I disagree with have converged to wish it away from Tampa or something (understandable but dangerous game to play)

[caneseddy]

Milton wobbled a bit to the southeast today, but the longer-term
12-hour motion is east-northeastward (075/8 kt). Milton is forecast
to turn northeastward and begin accelerating later today as it moves
between a trough digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near
the Greater Antilles. Because of the wobble, the track guidance
has been initialized a bit to the south of where many of the raw
model fields think the hurricane was centered at 1800 UTC, and this
has caused the entire guidance envelope to shift a bit south on
this cycle. It is still critical to remember that even at 36 hours
(around the time of potential landfall), NHC's track forecasts
can be off by an average of 60 n mi, which means we still can't
pinpoint an exact landfall location, especially if additional
wobbles occur in the short term.

[CronkPSU]

from the 5 PM discussion..

Milton wobbled a bit to the southeast today, but the longer-term
12-hour motion is east-northeastward (075/8 kt). Milton is forecast
to turn northeastward and begin accelerating later today as it moves
between a trough digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near
the Greater Antilles. Because of the wobble, the track guidance
has been initialized a bit to the south of where many of the raw
model fields think the hurricane was centered at 1800 UTC, and this
has caused the entire guidance envelope to shift a bit south on
this cycle. It is still critical to remember that even at 36 hours
(around the time of potential landfall), NHC's track forecasts
can be off by an average of 60 n mi, which means we still can't
pinpoint an exact landfall location, especially if additional
wobbles occur in the short term. After landfall, Milton is
forecast to cross Florida and emerge over the Atlantic waters on
Thursday.

[Frank P]

Dudes its 918 mb and winds of 165 mph.. per NHC

[Iceresistance]

I have never seen ADT this high before

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SBlHm.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SBlHm.png

Highest CI's observed in the Atlantic basin in the last 10 years.

Milton (2024) = 7.7 (1st peak)
Milton (2024) = 7.4 (2nd peak)

Irma (2017) = 7.3
Eta (2024) = 7.3
Michael (2018) = 7.2
Maria (2017) = 7.1
Lorenzo (2019) = 7.1
Iota (2020) = 7.0
Matthew (2016) = 7.0
Beryl (2024) = 6.9
Ian (2022) = 6.9
Lee (2023) = 6.8

The 7.7 was from where it was CDO related, not EYE related

[wx98]

Recon is imminent but:

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 OCT 2024 Time : 004020 UTC
Lat : 21:50:24 N Lon : 90:21:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.3 / 909.6mb/149.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.3 7.6 7.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -51.3C Cloud Region Temp : -80.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[psyclone]

Good tick south on the 5pm

[fsucory08]

Looking at the updated windspeed probabilities, Hurricane force probability for Ft. Pierce doubled to 25%.