Texas Winter 2025-2026

Winter Weather Discussion

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Quixotic
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3521 Postby Quixotic » Wed Jan 21, 2026 6:07 pm

rylo7956 wrote:
Quixotic wrote:BTW, FWD shifted that mostly snow line ever so slightly south as it bisects Denton and Collin.


Getting real close to me in Coppell.


I hope it drifts to I-20 and holds.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3522 Postby Quixotic » Wed Jan 21, 2026 6:08 pm

254 guests. Don’t be shy friends!
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3523 Postby dhweather » Wed Jan 21, 2026 6:14 pm

Quixotic wrote:254 guests. Don’t be shy friends!


Help us get to 200 pages! :lol: :lol: :lol:
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The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3524 Postby Quixotic » Wed Jan 21, 2026 6:16 pm

dhweather wrote:
Quixotic wrote:254 guests. Don’t be shy friends!


Help us get to 200 pages! :lol: :lol: :lol:


If NTX is right, we might get to the record!
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Bobbyh83
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3525 Postby Bobbyh83 » Wed Jan 21, 2026 6:19 pm

dhweather wrote:
Quixotic wrote:254 guests. Don’t be shy friends!


Help us get to 200 pages! :lol: :lol: :lol:


Long time lurker doing my part to help.
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gpsnowman
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3526 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Jan 21, 2026 6:20 pm

dhweather wrote:
Quixotic wrote:254 guests. Don’t be shy friends!


Help us get to 200 pages! :lol: :lol: :lol:

400
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3527 Postby Steve » Wed Jan 21, 2026 6:21 pm

dhweather wrote:
Quixotic wrote:254 guests. Don’t be shy friends!


Help us get to 200 pages! :lol: :lol: :lol:


200 pages you say? I am the great DH, the greatest mastermind of them all. I am here to destroy the powerpuff girls because I am evil and highly intelligent. The most intelligent! And I shall rule the world!
————————
Anyway, the GFS does bring a little hope for some frozen stuff here in NWFL. I was pretty much ready to just watch it on tv this weekend, but maybe a trace of something?
Last edited by Steve on Wed Jan 21, 2026 6:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3528 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Jan 21, 2026 6:21 pm

Quixotic wrote:BTW, FWD shifted that mostly snow line ever so slightly south as it bisects Denton and Collin.


Trends, they are starting
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3529 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 21, 2026 6:22 pm

I think there was mention of last's year system I've been asked a few times. Both that and this coming event are similar where there is a big southwest low bringing up copious amounts of moisture. Txtwister78 mentioned a few times the source of cold air set up is quite different this year. Cold was already in place and eroding as, warm-moist air was filling above. It was a much easier process for the warm nose to bring the warmth down.

This year you have cold coming in fresh with reinforcing HP with more quality cold air, not an eroding air mass and it may very well win out.

Early Jan 2025
Image

Image

Image
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HockeyTx82
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3530 Postby HockeyTx82 » Wed Jan 21, 2026 6:27 pm

STORM2K OFFICIAL BULLETIN

Meltdown Watch Downgrade
Issued by: Storm2k Office of Emotional Stability and Trend Reassessment
Status: MELTDOWN WARNING CANCELED, MELTDOWN WATCH IN EFFECT

The Storm2k Office has canceled the previously issued Meltdown Warning. Recent developments have shown a meaningful improvement in trends, prompting a downgrade to a Meltdown Watch for the Texas Winter Weather thread.

REASON FOR DOWNGRADE
- Latest guidance has shifted in a more favorable direction for a wider portion of the region.
- Confidence has increased as multiple sources now show improved consistency.
- The National Weather Service has adjusted the projected snow line farther south and east, bringing the DFW area into a more promising position.
- Forum emotional volatility has decreased from “critical” to “manageable.”

CURRENT SITUATION
- Posters are now exhibiting signs of cautious optimism, including phrases such as “Okay, that’s better” and “I’ll take that shift.”
- The rate of doomposting has slowed to normal winter‑thread levels.
- Several users have been observed stepping away from their devices to breathe fresh air.
- The F5 key is no longer considered at risk of structural failure.

EXPECTED IMPACTS
- Continued improvement in thread morale.
- Increased likelihood of celebratory GIFs if trends continue.
- Reduced probability of spontaneous thread combustion.
- A small number of users may still insist “it’s over,” but they are now considered outliers.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
- Maintain situational awareness as trends continue to evolve.
- Enjoy the improved outlook while keeping expectations tethered to reality.
- Continue monitoring updates from the National Weather Service as the snow line adjustments develop.
- Keep snacks nearby — this is still Storm2k, after all.
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)

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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3531 Postby Quixotic » Wed Jan 21, 2026 6:40 pm

Quixotic wrote:
dhweather wrote:
Quixotic wrote:254 guests. Don’t be shy friends!


Help us get to 200 pages! :lol: :lol: :lol:


If NTX is right, we might get to the record!


Record is 501 pages for Texas Winter. 2013-2014
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Stonewood Ranch
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3532 Postby Stonewood Ranch » Wed Jan 21, 2026 6:53 pm

HI guys! I just got back to DFW this afternoon and had to check Storm2K out immediately. I live south of I20 in the Ovilla area. I haven’t had a chance to read the last 50 or 60 pages! As it stands right now, what can I expect in the Ovilla area? Much freezing rain or sleet and snow only? I know things are changing by the hour. Thanks!
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3533 Postby Harp.1 » Wed Jan 21, 2026 6:54 pm

I’m sorry if this has been asked and answered, but when will the recon data be entered into the models?
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3534 Postby LearnedHat » Wed Jan 21, 2026 7:00 pm

Harp.1 wrote:I’m sorry if this has been asked and answered, but when will the recon data be entered into the models?

It has been it the last 5 pages or so but I don't quite remember ---- Thursday 03z?????
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3535 Postby Harp.1 » Wed Jan 21, 2026 7:02 pm

LearnedHat wrote:
Harp.1 wrote:I’m sorry if this has been asked and answered, but when will the recon data be entered into the models?

It has been it the last 5 pages or so but I don't quite remember ---- Thursday 03z?????

I’ve seen all kinds of different answers.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3536 Postby wxman22 » Wed Jan 21, 2026 7:04 pm

Our storm is slowly coming ashore the California coast.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3537 Postby aggiecutter » Wed Jan 21, 2026 7:10 pm

GFS too cold-EURO too warm-Reality is somewhere inbetween.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3538 Postby mmmmsnouts » Wed Jan 21, 2026 7:16 pm

If that much sleet falls over DFW… how do you deal with clearing all of that if you want to get out of your driveway before, like, Wednesday? You might need a sledgehammer to get through sleet like that once it solidifies.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3539 Postby BAY29 » Wed Jan 21, 2026 7:20 pm

Houston’s Travis herzog is talking about a brief change over to snow at the back end…
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#3540 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 21, 2026 7:23 pm

Stonewood Ranch wrote:HI guys! I just got back to DFW this afternoon and had to check Storm2K out immediately. I live south of I20 in the Ovilla area. I haven’t had a chance to read the last 50 or 60 pages! As it stands right now, what can I expect in the Ovilla area? Much freezing rain or sleet and snow only? I know things are changing by the hour. Thanks!


Looks likely the same as much of the metro, starting as rain changing to sleet, probably a lot of sleet, late Saturday to Sunday may be switching to snow. Subject to change of course if cold is a little faster.
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