ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Shawee]

That gfs setup dont half look scary for Florida and the Gulf...almost that K word scenario ...CMC also is alarming too

Betsy (1965) did a loop-de loop out in the atlantic then headed to the gulf... but this far out with this weak a system this far away, any comparisions to "K" or other storms is pure speculation at best. lions and tigers and bears oh my!

[Aric Dunn]

I don't know Aric. If the center WNW of San Juan is the dominant center, which I 100% believe it is, this this system is still very much over water and will probably only skim the DR. I think an upgrade to TD or TS is still probably pretty likely today.

yes skiming is also not normally good... actually disrupts the circ just as much ..

[jlauderdal]

I don't know Aric. If the center WNW of San Juan is the dominant center, which I 100% believe it is, this this system is still very much over water and will probably only skim the DR. I think an upgrade to TD or TS is still probably pretty likely today.

if you are correct then its behaving as some of the globals have been modeling, the big question how does Dr and Hispanola affect the system if it at all and then the question after that assuming survival will be track

[cycloneye]

Obswervations from NW Puerto Rico (Aguadilla) confirm low to the north.

Conditions at Aug 15, 2008 - 07:50 AM EDTAug 15, 2008 - 06:50 AM CDTAug 15, 2008 - 05:50 AM MDTAug 15, 2008 - 04:50 AM PDTAug 15, 2008 - 03:50 AM ADTAug 15, 2008 - 02:50 AM HDT
2008.08.15 1150 UTC
Wind from the S (180 degrees) at 21 MPH (18 KT)
Visibility 10 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Thunder in the vicinity
Light rain
Lightning observed
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 88%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.87 in. Hg (1011 hPa)
ob TJBQ 151150Z 18018KT 10SM VCTS -RA FEW015 OVC030 25/23 A2987 LTG VC DSNT N W

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

South winds in the NW corner of PR.

[KWT]

Looks like the MLC is still hogging the main convection though I do agree the center does seem to be that broad circulation turning just off the north coast of DR.

[AdamFirst]

WFLX (WPEC)'s Michael Ehrenberg here in West Palm Beach used some of the models from yesterday me thinks, saying it will emerge off of Hispaniola and stream hundreds of miles east of Florida barely breezing the Bahamas.

But there's still that grave tone of voice.

South Florida meteorologists, keeping us informed

[caneman]

Blown Away Thanks. Cool site. According to history if it hugs along the DR coast Florida looks to be the target.

[carolina_73]

SSD DVORAK HAS IT SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO

15/1145 UTC 17.5N 67.2W T2.5/2.5 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

its wrong, disregard

I am seeing a circulation (and it is not mid level) just off of the north coast of PR (cannot possibly be mid level as it is so close to the radar)

Also that circulation seems to have tightened up as well IMO, I think thats more likely to be the center then the southern one but either way we do have STILL two competing circulations!

The fight MUST STOP!!!

[KWT]

cycloneye, yep that fits in with the radar imagery as well, thats going to be the first place I think recon will try and observe for a LLC, if its going to be anywhere it'll probably be there, even though the MLC is clearly still got the better presenation when it comes to the convection.

[HURAKAN]

[Aric Dunn]

im sorry but no surface reprots suggest a center off the north coast.. in san juan the winds are SE and in aquadilla on the NW coast the winds are south .. that means the center would be right in the passage... and radar does not support that idea

[jlauderdal]

SSD DVORAK HAS IT SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO

15/1145 UTC 17.5N 67.2W T2.5/2.5 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

its wrong, disregard

I am seeing a circulation (and it is not mid level) just off of the north coast of PR (cannot possibly be mid level as it is so close to the radar)

i have that center at 18.7/66.5 on radar, i used grlevel2 with different tilts to establish that, lets see if it holds together and becomes the dominant player

[Aric Dunn]

SSD DVORAK HAS IT SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO

15/1145 UTC 17.5N 67.2W T2.5/2.5 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

its wrong, disregard

I am seeing a circulation (and it is not mid level) just off of the north coast of PR (cannot possibly be mid level as it is so close to the radar)

i have that center at 18.7/66.5 on radar, i used grlevel2 with different tilts to establish that, lets see if it holds together and becomes the dominant player

that almost believeable .. looking at radar but surface obs do not support that ..... hince we still have no well defined surface circ.

[Blown Away]

That gfs setup dont half look scary for Florida and the Gulf...almost that K word scenario ...CMC also is alarming too

Betsy (1965) did a loop-de loop out in the atlantic then headed to the gulf... but this far out with this weak a system this far away, any comparisions to "K" or other storms is pure speculation at best. lions and tigers and bears oh my!

That's a great avatar, lol. Government at its best.

[Extremeweatherguy]

im sorry but no surface reprots suggest a center off the north coast.. in san juan the winds are SE and in aquadilla on the NW coast the winds are south .. that means the center would be right in the passage... and radar does not support that idea

Radar does support that idea, and so does Derek Ortt. The surface wind reports do seem to indicate a center a little further west though, so I really don't know. The only thing I am pretty sure of is that the center is not south of the island.

[Bocadude85]

I also see the llc on san jaun radar

[cycloneye]

Best Track at 12z goes with the north low:

AL, 92, 2008081512, , BEST, 0, 184N, 674W, 30, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 60, 0,

Which will finnally win the war,the north or the south?

[Blown Away]

15/1145 UTC 17.5N 67.2W T2.5/2.5 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

Is this the NHC's official position now?

[Aric Dunn]

im sorry but no surface reprots suggest a center off the north coast.. in san juan the winds are SE and in aquadilla on the NW coast the winds are south .. that means the center would be right in the passage... and radar does not support that idea

Radar does support that idea, and so does Derek Ortt. The surface wind reports do seem to indicate a center a little further west though, so I really don't know. The only thing I am pretty sure of is that the center is not south of the island.

well i agree its not south of the island ... and radar is in conclusive there is clearly some weak turning but by no means does it verify the existance of a closed surface circulation.

[CourierPR]

Last night when we saw the center just ne of PR, I thought it would pull the convection northward and intensification would begin.