ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bevgo]

I can tell you where Irma is going. It will hit Ocean Springs, Biloxi, Gulfport area. It's my fault. Sorry. I seem to be cursed. I have a disability hearing Friday Oct 13. Yes, Friday 13. Normally I am not worried burbs have had nothing but bad luck lately. A hurricane would destroy this area and my hearing would be delayed.. I have waited 2 years. The last 3 ssues...... Thursday my grandson dropped a can on my toe and broke it. Friday's was eating out and my chair broke. I had to go to ED. Of course I needed pain meds but I am on Norco for pain ALREADY. Noticed at least 15 pills missing. Oh great! Pain up drugs down. That is just this week.

[Blinhart]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 SEP 2017 Time : 041500 UTC
Lat : 16:39:38 N Lon : 55:59:04 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 932.8mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +8.9C Cloud Region Temp : -73.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.3 degrees

I know it's DVORAK, but they have it at 933 already, so I wouldn't be surprised when RECON gets in there that they find pressure around 915 by the end of their flight and winds just catching up to the pressure drop.

[Blinhart]

The northern eye wall does appear to have some weakness but wow, overall Irma is getting its act together.

The Northern Wall could be the weakest spot because of the wobbles to the South of Due West.

[Evenstar]

The northern eye wall does appear to have some weakness but wow, overall Irma is getting its act together.

Is it me or does she look like she's screaming?

[caneseddy]

2am advisory has winds at 145 mph and pressure at 939

[Blinhart]

2am advisory has winds at 145 mph and pressure at 939

Not surprised they upped it by 5 MPH, they will wait until they get reliable information before they pull the Cat 5 numbers out, since they have RECON that will probably be continuous soon they will have reliable information from here on out.

If anyone has the RECON schedule can you guys please post it here.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like its going to miss the next forecast point to the south.. PR is getting dangerously close to having a possible landfall.

[Hammy]

It looks like Irma's now the strongest MDR hurricane since Gert in 1999, which was 130kt. Last Cat 5 was Hugo I believe.

[Shuriken]

Hello, truck tire....

[Aric Dunn]

It looks like Irma's now the strongest MDR hurricane since Gert in 1999, which was 130kt. Last Cat 5 was Hugo I believe.

it might make cat 5 before the islands just about where Hugo did..

also hugo was the only cat 5 east of the islands..

[bevgo]

Aric and other pro Mets. My grandson is doing his science fair project on hurricanes. We need a good hypothesis. I was something to do with steering currents. What do y'all think? We seemed to have picked the perfect year for this subject.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric and other pro Mets. My grandson is doing his science fair project on hurricanes. We need a good hypothesis. I was something to do with steering currents. What do y'all think? We seemed to have picked the perfect year for this subject.

Thats great !

maybe something about land interaction and intesity ?

[Aric Dunn]

Very deep convection wraping around all quads now. still need to sustain the convection with a solid donut.

also looks like some more wsw motion the last hour.. not good again for PR..

[ApproximateKnowledge]

Aric and other pro Mets. My grandson is doing his science fair project on hurricanes. We need a good hypothesis. I was something to do with steering currents. What do y'all think? We seemed to have picked the perfect year for this subject.

I'm assuming this is a younger kid? Why not work with some of the established ideas like "colder cloud tops = stronger storm" and put some hard numbers to them. Easy enough to look up historical imagery and intensities.

[Aric Dunn]

144 hours rapid intensification! into charley territory. crazy the environment is going to so conducive pretty much anywhere it goes ..

[Chris90]

In the latest satellite imagery, there's some sort of feature in the N/NE part of the eye. It's like a line of clouds/convection shooting down or something. Sorry, I don't quite know how to put it better. I was viewing it best with the unenhanced IR.

I was just wondering, does anyone know if that is a hot tower or a meso or something else? I'm just curious.

[bevgo]

So sorry. I'm drugged and tired. I meant to also ment to add...anyone that would be willing to assist him. He joined the board this year. If anyone can help him I will make a donation to storm2k. In the names of the folks that helped. He will also credit the board and the name of all that helped abacus advisors v PLEASE consider helping. He is 13 and has been lurking with me for at least 4 years and is trying to decide if he wants to be a meteorologist or nascar driver. Lol. All left turns. Cody is a great young man, very smart and will make you proud to have assisted him. I think his name is Codygo. Lol. I will ask him to be sure later.

[Kingarabian]

Hope everyone is preparing...

[Aric Dunn]

In the latest satellite imagery, there's some sort of feature in the N/NE part of the eye. It's like a line of clouds/convection shooting down or something. Sorry, I don't quite know how to put it better. I was viewing it best with the unenhanced IR.

I was just wondering, does anyone know if that is a hot tower or a meso or something else? I'm just curious.

thats very normal thats a convergence cloud line between two meso on the very inner eyewall

[lando]

surprised everyone is sleeping