2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[toad strangler]

If this is not a modeled phantom storm, it should begin to move into the mid range timing over next few days and a very common track in the NW Caribbean is to bury into CA. GFS has tendency to under develop high pressure. Consistency of this storm in the GFS cannot be ignored IMO.

What consistency?

Consistency of the GFS to continue developing a hurricane. The jumping around of the storm is more of a timing thing, some model runs faster/slower by @24-48 hours which we should expect @10 days out. If you look at the modeled tracks there are all generally the same develop in Central/NW Caribbean and eject NE over Cuba. Is the GFS going to be right, who knows, but it has been consistent.

true that, GFS has been consistent for quite awhile now on a storm. I thought you were meaning track

[northjaxpro]

GFS has been for the most part consistent on whatever comes from this will miss Florida to the east and go over Cuba and The Bahamas and out to sea. 06z GEFS ensembles have also trended east after a more threatening look on 00z. Hopefully we’ll know much more by the weekend or early next week as this disturbance gets going. But the trend hasn’t been too threatening to Florida.

What trend? Consistent um not so much the gfs has been all over the place that’s why I stated it comes down to how close will this storm if any gets close to the peninsula. The storm has not even formed yet lol.

For days on end, I have sat back in amazement and just observed all of the discussion and conjecture about something which may potentially occur 10- 14 days down the road. I have been down to the rodeo many, many times to recognize that anything past ten days in the tropics is just pure fools gold. Just take a dart board and throw at it and take a guess of where a potential system will end up. It is too tough to look beyond any forecast reasonably beyond 5-7 days, but especially past 10+ days.

Once the incipient area forms, we can then focus on when and where a system goes and model initialization will be more reliable. We are still looking at potentially a few more days before we even get to this point.

[toad strangler]

GFS has been for the most part consistent on whatever comes from this will miss Florida to the east and go over Cuba and The Bahamas and out to sea. 06z GEFS ensembles have also trended east after a more threatening look on 00z. Hopefully we’ll know much more by the weekend or early next week as this disturbance gets going. But the trend hasn’t been too threatening to Florida.

What trend? Consistent um not so much the gfs has been all over the place that’s why I stated it comes down to how close will this storm if any gets close to the peninsula. The storm has not even formed yet lol.

For days on end, I have sat back in amazement and just observed all of the discussion and conjecture about something which may potentially occur 10- 14 days down the road. I have been down to the rodeo many, many times to recognize that anything past ten days in the tropics is just pure fools gold. Just take a dart board and throw at it and take a guess of where a potential system will end up. It is too tough to look beyond any forecast reasonably beyond 7 days, but especially past 10+ days.

Once the incipient area forms, we can then focus on when and where a system goes and model initialization will be more reliable. We are still looking at potentially a few more days before we even get to this point.

What else do we discuss in a 16 day model thread? Gardening?

Anyway the CMC, GFS, GFS Para, Euro all show this in the long range with the Euro being the less enthused (no surprise there).

[northjaxpro]

What trend? Consistent um not so much the gfs has been all over the place that’s why I stated it comes down to how close will this storm if any gets close to the peninsula. The storm has not even formed yet lol.

For days on end, I have sat back in amazement and just observed all of the discussion and conjecture about something which may potentially occur 10- 14 days down the road. I have been down to the rodeo many, many times to recognize that anything past ten days in the tropics is just pure fools gold. Just take a dart board and throw at it and take a guess of where a potential system will end up. It is too tough to look beyond any forecast reasonably beyond 7 days, but especially past 10+ days.

Once the incipient area forms, we can then focus on when and where a system goes and model initialization will be more reliable. We are still looking at potentially a few more days before we even get to this point.

What else do we discuss in a 16 day model thread? Gardening?

Anyway the CMC, GFS, GFS Para, Euro all show this in the long range with the Euro being the less enthused (no surprise there).

Well, just kidding, we might as well discuss gardening as we would probably have just as sensible discussion with that topic than playing a guessing game on something which is days potentially from happening.

Look, I know this is what we do and this thread in particular is for all the speculation I suppose.

Yes no doubt, the potential of a very significant cyvlone in the Western Caribbean to form is there. But, you all know it can take a very long time for evolution. But, it is good to see that you all are not sitting out there being complacent. This is the very last thing we should be in this crazy 2020 season. We must stay vigilent of course .

Hopefully, we will get some better clarity of the potential Western Caribbean system as we get closer to the upcoming weekend.

[tomatkins]

GFS has been for the most part consistent on whatever comes from this will miss Florida to the east and go over Cuba and The Bahamas and out to sea. 06z GEFS ensembles have also trended east after a more threatening look on 00z. Hopefully we’ll know much more by the weekend or early next week as this disturbance gets going. But the trend hasn’t been too threatening to Florida.

What trend? Consistent um not so much the gfs has been all over the place that’s why I stated it comes down to how close will this storm if any gets close to the peninsula. The storm has not even formed yet lol.

For days on end, I have sat back in amazement and just observed all of the discussion and conjecture about something which may potentially occur 10- 14 days down the road. I have been down to the rodeo many, many times to recognize that anything past ten days in the tropics is just pure fools gold. Just take a dart board and throw at it and take a guess of where a potential system will end up. It is too tough to look beyond any forecast reasonably beyond 5-7 days, but especially past 10+ days.

Once the incipient area forms, we can then focus on when and where a system goes and model initialization will be more reliable. We are still looking at potentially a few more days before we even get to this point.

Thats why this board exists though. Specifically this thread. Once you get into 5-7 days you probably have a real feature that gets its own thread. This thread is almost exclusively for stuff that doesnt exist yet.

[cycloneye]

Once you get into 5-7 days you probably have a real feature that gets its own thread.

Bingo. That is the threshold to have a thread for an area of interest so for now we stick here.

[toad strangler]

What trend? Consistent um not so much the gfs has been all over the place that’s why I stated it comes down to how close will this storm if any gets close to the peninsula. The storm has not even formed yet lol.

For days on end, I have sat back in amazement and just observed all of the discussion and conjecture about something which may potentially occur 10- 14 days down the road. I have been down to the rodeo many, many times to recognize that anything past ten days in the tropics is just pure fools gold. Just take a dart board and throw at it and take a guess of where a potential system will end up. It is too tough to look beyond any forecast reasonably beyond 5-7 days, but especially past 10+ days.

Once the incipient area forms, we can then focus on when and where a system goes and model initialization will be more reliable. We are still looking at potentially a few more days before we even get to this point.

Thats why this board exists though. Specifically this thread. Once you get into 5-7 days you probably have a real feature that gets its own thread. This thread is almost exclusively for stuff that doesnt exist yet.

Agreed and for the MOST part everybody in here understands the perils of long range modeling. It's been a good read since this potential system popped up on the GFS.

[SFLcane]

Buckle up!

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1316390633305563137

[SFLcane]

From Phil k...

We believe that the next two weeks will be characterized by above-normal TC activity (>7 ACE). While there are currently no active tropical TCs in the Atlantic, we think it is likely that a system will develop in the western Caribbean next week. This system looks to develop in an environment that should be conducive for intensification, and our current thinking is that this potential TC may generate enough ACE to reach the above-normal threshold. In addition to western Caribbean development, the large-scale environment looks to be conducive for additional TC formation in the subtropical Atlantic, which is a region that often sees development during this time of year (Figure 1). The large-scale pattern looks to generally remain conducive for Atlantic hurricane formation and intensification, especially in the western Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic.

The Climate Forecast System (CFS) model is generally predicting below-normal shear across the Caribbean over the next two weeks, with anomalous weak shear also forecast in parts of the subtropical Atlantic in week two (Figure 7).

[aspen]

From Phil k...

We believe that the next two weeks will be characterized by above-normal TC activity (>7 ACE). While there are currently no active tropical TCs in the Atlantic, we think it is likely that a system will develop in the western Caribbean next week. This system looks to develop in an environment that should be conducive for intensification, and our current thinking is that this potential TC may generate enough ACE to reach the above-normal threshold. In addition to western Caribbean development, the large-scale environment looks to be conducive for additional TC formation in the subtropical Atlantic, which is a region that often sees development during this time of year (Figure 1). The large-scale pattern looks to generally remain conducive for Atlantic hurricane formation and intensification, especially in the western Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic.

The Climate Forecast System (CFS) model is generally predicting below-normal shear across the Caribbean over the next two weeks, with anomalous weak shear also forecast in parts of the subtropical Atlantic in week two (Figure 7).

If the mid-latitudes are going to be exceptionally favorable these next two weeks, perhaps the mid-central Atlantic system could become one of those long-tracking higher latitude hurricanes. SSTs in that region (25-30N/50-60W) are 27-28C, easily capable of supporting at least a higher end TS assuming favorable upper-level conditions are present.

[cp79]

Where we’re at:

1) There’s a good chance something is going to form in the Caribbean next week. Hell, even the Euro, which doesn’t develop storms until they’ve hit Depression status, hints at formation.

2) Obviously, where it forms will play a big role in where it goes. The GFS wants to form it more in the Central Carib and move it more N and NE while the Euro and some other models develop it a little closer to CA. If it forms further south in the Carib, it’s more likely to not feel the influence of the trough and just move into CA as the Para indicates.

3) Its looking more likely that this is going to be more a traditional Oct/Nov pattern with troughs coming down and blocking it from moving into the western Gulf. It’s early, but fronts are starting to swoop down on the long range map. Louisiana, keep your eyes on it but I think you’re going to be safe on this one. It just feels like more your traditional pattern setting up.

[cheezyWXguy]

Where we’re at:

1) There’s a good chance something is going to form in the Caribbean next week. Hell, even the Euro, which doesn’t develop storms until they’ve hit Depression status, hints at formation.

2) Obviously, where it forms will play a big role in where it goes. The GFS wants to form it more in the Central Carib and move it more N and NE while the Euro and some other models develop it a little closer to CA. If it forms further south in the Carib, it’s more likely to not feel the influence of the trough and just move into CA as the Para indicates.

3) Its looking more likely that this is going to be more a traditional Oct/Nov pattern with troughs coming down and blocking it from moving into the western Gulf. It’s early, but fronts are starting to swoop down on the long range map. Louisiana, keep your eyes on it but I think you’re going to be safe on this one. It just feels like more your traditional pattern setting up.

Has the euro spun up anything this year? I recall one run for laura before it was classified that had it as a major, before dropping it entirely on the next run and thereafter.

[SFLcane]

Where we’re at:

1) There’s a good chance something is going to form in the Caribbean next week. Hell, even the Euro, which doesn’t develop storms until they’ve hit Depression status, hints at formation.

2) Obviously, where it forms will play a big role in where it goes. The GFS wants to form it more in the Central Carib and move it more N and NE while the Euro and some other models develop it a little closer to CA. If it forms further south in the Carib, it’s more likely to not feel the influence of the trough and just move into CA as the Para indicates.

3) Its looking more likely that this is going to be more a traditional Oct/Nov pattern with troughs coming down and blocking it from moving into the western Gulf. It’s early, but fronts are starting to swoop down on the long range map. Louisiana, keep your eyes on it but I think you’re going to be safe on this one. It just feels like more your traditional pattern setting up.

Has the euro spun up anything this year? I recall one run for laura before it was classified that had it as a major, before dropping it entirely on the next run and thereafter.

Horrific year in general for the European guidance.

[AutoPenalti]

Where we’re at:

1) There’s a good chance something is going to form in the Caribbean next week. Hell, even the Euro, which doesn’t develop storms until they’ve hit Depression status, hints at formation.

2) Obviously, where it forms will play a big role in where it goes. The GFS wants to form it more in the Central Carib and move it more N and NE while the Euro and some other models develop it a little closer to CA. If it forms further south in the Carib, it’s more likely to not feel the influence of the trough and just move into CA as the Para indicates.

3) Its looking more likely that this is going to be more a traditional Oct/Nov pattern with troughs coming down and blocking it from moving into the western Gulf. It’s early, but fronts are starting to swoop down on the long range map. Louisiana, keep your eyes on it but I think you’re going to be safe on this one. It just feels like more your traditional pattern setting up.

Has the euro spun up anything this year? I recall one run for laura before it was classified that had it as a major, before dropping it entirely on the next run and thereafter.

Euro has it's issues, but so far it's done decent at best. TCG seems to be a major caveat with this run.

[TheStormExpert]

The GFS has been gradually trending stronger with that area near 30°N in the Subtropical Atlantic. Wonder what implications that could have on track and maybe intensify of the Western Caribbean storm?

[Shell Mound]

GFS has been for the most part consistent on whatever comes from this will miss Florida to the east and go over Cuba and The Bahamas and out to sea. 06z GEFS ensembles have also trended east after a more threatening look on 00z. Hopefully we’ll know much more by the weekend or early next week as this disturbance gets going. But the trend hasn’t been too threatening to Florida.

Totally disagree with everything said here. Not because I think FL is under the gun but because of the use of the word "trend". I think the better term is "jump around" as that is what these runs are doing. There is no trend. At all. As in zilch.

If this is not a modeled phantom storm, it should begin to move into the mid range timing over next few days and a very common track in the NW Caribbean is to bury into CA. GFS has tendency to under develop high pressure. Consistency of this storm in the GFS cannot be ignored IMO.

A clear signal on the ensembles, regardless of track, is that a weaker system is more likely to track farther west than one that develops quickly.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS 12z starts developing this at @ 186.

[TheStormExpert]

Another thing I’ve noticed is the GFS has pushed back development of this a few days since the overnight 00z run for what it’s worth.

[Shell Mound]

The GFS has been gradually trending stronger with that area near 30°N in the Subtropical Atlantic. Wonder what implications that could have on track and maybe intensity of the Western Caribbean storm?

The EC suite, its ensembles, and the GFS-P have been very consistent with this subtropical system and therefore have been indicating stronger-than-average shear over the Caribbean. The G(E)FS may be trending toward the former models’ solution(s), suggesting a shallower system in the Caribbean that tracks farther west, closer to or over Central America. All in all, a stronger system is more likely to miss the CONUS and affect Cuba and the Bahamas, while a shallower system is more likely to affect portions of Central America. If the latter solution were to verify, anything that manages to survive passage over land would encounter strong shear in the Gulf and not produce significant impacts to Florida.

[toad strangler]

GFS 12z starts developing this at @ 186.

And FWIW, further E