ATL: IRENE - Models

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Aric Dunn
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#3561 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:14 pm

gatorcane wrote:Ut oh....the 12Z Euro has shifted west...scrapes SE Florida.... :eek:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP096.gif

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif


not surprised. I think the models will eventually realize the trough is lifting out now and ridging will build in again before the next trough. not sure why they did not see that before.
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Re:

#3562 Postby BigA » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:15 pm

[quote="gatorcane"]Ut oh....the 12Z Euro has shifted west...scrapes SE Florida.... :eek:

quote]


This is what makes this whole thing so fascinating. But let us never forget that a shift one way or another likely means that different people will lose their homes and possibly their lives. Still, our studying this can't hurt anyone, so don't feel guilty about being excited, just understand the gravity. This message is meant as much to myself as anyone else.
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#3563 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:17 pm

Someone post some graphics of the EURO plz
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3564 Postby dwsqos2 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:17 pm

Please look at the time stamps; that's yesterday's run
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3565 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:18 pm

BigA wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:I can understand the models thinking this first trough is going to turn it. but its already lifting out and unless it starts now it wont and honestly like the 00z and 06z hwrf where it turns it NW to almost NNW by the time its straight north of hispaniola is just not right. the 12z nam seems to have the trough that is now lifting out actually lifting out and keep Irene on a more Wnw track. just think the models are turning too much with the first trough and not realizes the ridging will build back in after it lifts out briefly


Perhaps this is heresy, but the NAM might be useful in this case if it is modeling a mid-latitude feature that will affect Irene's track.


vortex will be very happy to see this post
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#3566 Postby SeminoleWind » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:18 pm

72 hrs out euro is VERY close to SFL
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#3567 Postby bucman1 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:20 pm

What is interesting with the GFDL is after hitting Miami it takes it (or so it looks) up the spine of the State with quite a large circulation.
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#3568 Postby SeminoleWind » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:20 pm

looks like another florida miss at 96
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#3569 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:20 pm

No.. Euro is further east
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3570 Postby dwsqos2 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:20 pm

Check the time stamps people; Scorpion is right.
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#3571 Postby storm4u » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:20 pm

euro is east
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3572 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:21 pm

dwsqos2 wrote:Please look at the time stamps; that's yesterday's run


Looks like the images did not update, so posted the new ones..so false alarm.

Looks like it is still east of Florida
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#3573 Postby SeminoleWind » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:21 pm

looks like SC hit at 120 hr
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Re:

#3574 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:22 pm

storm4u wrote:euro is east

well which is it.. I dont have the maps. I wait till 3PM when a higher res images come out..
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3575 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:23 pm

For what it's worth

12z NOGAPS has shifted west this run.

Image
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Re: Re:

#3576 Postby storm4u » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:24 pm

slightly east but pretty close to 0z there hr 120


Aric Dunn wrote:
storm4u wrote:euro is east

well which is it.. I dont have the maps. I wait till 3PM when a higher res images come out..
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Scorpion

#3577 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:25 pm

Thats yesterdays NOGAPS
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#3578 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:25 pm

I'd say the 12z was slightly west or even with previous run, but not more east. It's hard to tell without 12 hour graphs.
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#3579 Postby Scorpion » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:25 pm

Landfall around SC/NC border
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#3580 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 22, 2011 1:26 pm

well I want to see the early track of the euro. dont care about anything past 2 days right now. models are to all over the place.
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