ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BobHarlem]

Pasch a man of few words. How about talking about the Euro vs the GFS which mean big differences for SE Florida?

11pm EST discussion out.

11 PM EDST discussions have been the most boring for the last few days, telling us is time to go to bed for some of us, tomorrow is a long day

Biggest change is it's a bit slower than the 5pm, track pretty much the same otherwise. Although the thing that sticks out the most is the "Isais " typo.

[SFLcane]

Pasch a man of few words. How about talking about the Euro vs the GFS which mean big differences for SE Florida?

11pm EST discussion out.

Yea wrote about 3 sentences.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/1289392839567130624

[chaser1]

Pasch a man of few words. How about talking about the Euro vs the GFS which mean big differences for SE Florida?

11pm EST discussion out.

Yeah his Discussion seemed sort of anti-CLIMATIC, if you know what I mean. From commentary here I expected fireworks and hula gals at 11PM.

That's Pasch in a nutshell. He's a little bit more animated in person.... okay, perhaps not so much lol. He know's his stuff though. Just goes to show ya though, cerebral doesn't necessarily translate to descriptive or communicative.

[AutoPenalti]

Cone of Concern seems to be a little conservative when we know that is usually an error of where the center can be. Can be misleading to the public.

[eastcoastFL]

I think it’s safe to say that if doesn’t get its act together overnight it’s window of opportunity will run out. Although the NHC extends that window of opportunity through tomorrow morning per their latest discussion. After that conditions are not conducive for strengthening

Seems it’s getting its act together at the moment

There just seem to be lots of posts on here that have been suggesting otherwise, per it’s appearance. Perhaps looks are deceiving

I was looking at the recon data. Nothing shows any signs of weakening. I wouldn’t get too caught up in appearance. This has been an ugly storm all the way but resilient

[KWT]

Interesting that recon jogged westwards in terms of center location whilst the convection jumped a little northwards. I think it's probably had some higher shear put onto it.

Would explain a far weaker and open core again after looking relatively good but a few hours ago.

Looking fairly steady state overall, though you can still get some strengthening even with a less stellar core.

[hipshot]

People... Eyewalls open a close all the time during this phase of a hurricane..

Eric, I would still like to know what is the deal with Izzy's evil twin to the east? I appears to have some fierce convection and seems to pulse up and down
in sync on IR with the twin to the west?

[NDG]

Looks like pressure dropped some more.

030400 2305N 07622W 8415 01401 9842 +255 +188 211009 018 021 000 03
030430 2306N 07622W 8441 01373 9842 +249 +193 111010 012 /// /// 03
030500 2308N 07622W 8425 01387 9840 +248 +197 117014 015 /// /// 03
030530 2308N 07620W 8440 01372 9842 +244 +199 161016 018 /// /// 03
030600 2307N 07619W 8425 01388 9845 +241 +201 193023 025 029 000 00
030630 2305N 07619W 8429 01389 9842 +258 +201 210025 026 028 000 03
$$

[aspen]

Looks like the pressure might be down to 984 mbar.

[chaser1]

I'm seeing an overall net motion that appears more north leaning. There's just no way do I see this storm track south of Andros.

[Blown Away]

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions
Very slight E track shift in first 24 hours, slight W shift after 48 hours...

[ozonepete]

CDO looks very good now but very small in relation to the whole storm size (whole circulation envelope) and that circ envelope is still stretched north to south with the big area of convection located to the east, so the symmetry is still pretty sloppy. A circle spins much faster much more easily than an oval or ellipse.

[Hurricaneman]

I'm seeing an overall net motion that appears more north leaning. There's just no way do I see this storm track south of Andros.

Seems that way to me too, recon will tell the story

[HurricaneFrances04]

Might be southerly shear?

[seussianagenda]

This is going to take that Floyd route through NC, VA, and out over Salisbury. I'm not looking forward to this week. I'm in Norfolk and we just aren't ready for high tide and flooding.

[CronkPSU]

11PM track basically the same, maybe ever so slightly closer to the coast

 https://twitter.com/richschellhase/status/1289401165730344961

[tropicwatch]

I'm seeing an overall net motion that appears more north leaning. There's just no way do I see this storm track south of Andros.

northward????

[HurricaneFrances04]

I think the shift in the cone was happenstance. The 12/24/36/48/etc forecast points were probably just extrapolated from the previous advisory.

[Hurricaneman]

I'm seeing an overall net motion that appears more north leaning. There's just no way do I see this storm track south of Andros.

northward????
http://tropicwatch.info/isais073120202223.jpg

Actually looking at this again recon has a NW heading, the NNW illusion is shear