Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Portastorm]

Boy, the 12z GFS really backed off on how far south the cold air will go. It still buries DFW in ice but for us here in south central Texas, we'd have a cold rain. Hey, I'm not complaining.

What would stop that frigid air from continuing to plunge south?

A mysterious wall of some sort? What or who might that be!

Give it a few more days until we get in hi res territory. We should have a better idea on cold air movement at that time.

Correct! I blame a certain Houston-based meteorologist for this deviation.

Lots of time (and model runs) to go. By the way, I read some interesting stuff this morning from some pro mets who like the ICON more than the GFS in the short range. They claimed it performed better.

[txtwister78]

Models are always slower and a bit "warmer" with shallow arctic airmasses. We've seen that time and time again. I would expect (as usual) for that to be a correction as we get into the HI-RES and NAM range.

[BrokenGlass]

Want fluffy snow not ice. Don't worry Ercot is on top of it all. Pray for the grid!

ERCOT may not be ready, but hey, we had time to make it harder to vote!


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[South Texas Storms]

What would stop that frigid air from continuing to plunge south?

A mysterious wall of some sort? What or who might that be!

Give it a few more days until we get in hi res territory. We should have a better idea on cold air movement at that time.

Correct! I blame a certain Houston-based meteorologist for this deviation.

Lots of time (and model runs) to go. By the way, I read some interesting stuff this morning from some pro mets who like the ICON more than the GFS in the short range. They claimed it performed better.

I've found the ICON to be a pretty useful tool when preparing forecasts. One of the best forecasting tools that we have now is the NBM model, which is a blend of several different models. I'm not sure if its data is freely available, but it is on Pivotal Weather Plus and WeatherBell.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Final verdict on the 12z ICON is a Catastrophic Ice Storm for DFW.

(I have a GIF coming)

Here it is, it's the worst case scenario for DFW

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/40325249.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/40325249.gif

Doesn’t look like much for SA & AUS. Hopefully things can dip further south that way DFW could be on the snowy side of things, but then that would put us in the crosshairs for ice…

[Ntxw]

It'll be interesting to see NAM and HRRR next week with the nature of convective qpf expected. It has been a minute since we've had a jet entrance in winter for this part of the state like this.

[rwfromkansas]

Hopefully the ramped-up storm in NE will help us, and maybe help it weaken the warm nose a bit.

Amazing video out of Cape Cod you may have seen. Incredible winds. https://twitter.com/forecaster25/status ... zxlWqt_sOg

[Ralph's Weather]

Okay, for us who follow this site, but have no clue how to read the maps and what to follow - What does this mean for East Texas area? Tyler/Longview area in particular.

I appreciate any feedback anyone can give.

I am in Lindale and I am expecting around 1 inch liquid after it drops below freezing Wed evening through Thursday. Could be the worst ice storm in a long time here.

[txtwister78]

Final verdict on the 12z ICON is a Catastrophic Ice Storm for DFW.

(I have a GIF coming)

Here it is, it's the worst case scenario for DFW

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/40325249.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/40325249.gif

Doesn’t look like much for SA & AUS. Hopefully things can dip further south that way DFW could be on the snowy side of things, but then that would put us in the crosshairs for ice…

Still several days out so expect some changes to location and potentially precip types.

[Texas Snow]

A mysterious wall of some sort? What or who might that be!

Give it a few more days until we get in hi res territory. We should have a better idea on cold air movement at that time.

Correct! I blame a certain Houston-based meteorologist for this deviation.

Lots of time (and model runs) to go. By the way, I read some interesting stuff this morning from some pro mets who like the ICON more than the GFS in the short range. They claimed it performed better.

I've found the ICON to be a pretty useful tool when preparing forecasts. One of the best forecasting tools that we have now is the NBM model, which is a blend of several different models. I'm not sure if its data is freely available, but it is on Pivotal Weather Plus and WeatherBell.

What is it showing for Wednesday night/Thursday as compared to the individuals? I’m actually thinking of subscribing to plus just to look at the NBM.

[rwfromkansas]

Side note: When did FWD start obsessing over statistics? Seems like much of their discussions now focus on that.

I've notices it with a couple of the younger forecasters. It's not a bad thing. Maybe they have always talked about it internally but these folks are typing it. I love the more detail they provide, always.

True, the more detail the better, just different I guess.

[South Texas Storms]

Correct! I blame a certain Houston-based meteorologist for this deviation.

Lots of time (and model runs) to go. By the way, I read some interesting stuff this morning from some pro mets who like the ICON more than the GFS in the short range. They claimed it performed better.

I've found the ICON to be a pretty useful tool when preparing forecasts. One of the best forecasting tools that we have now is the NBM model, which is a blend of several different models. I'm not sure if its data is freely available, but it is on Pivotal Weather Plus and WeatherBell.

What is it showing for Wednesday night/Thursday as compared to the individuals? I’m actually thinking of subscribing to plus just to look at the NBM.

It's currently showing around 0.10 inch of ice and 0.50 inch of snow for much of north Texas.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS doesn't like D-FW area. That nearly a foot of snow would be mostly freezing rain and sleet. GFS indicates nearly an inch of freezing rain and sleet. I saw such a storm in 1979 when I was living in Fort Worth. Thunderstorm with sleet. Ground covered with "white" the next morning. Looked like snow - it wasn't. Fortunately, not much freezing rain then. Freezing rain is very bad. One good thing is that the 12Z GFS likes Houston better. Little in the way of freezing rain. Hope that's correct.

[Iceresistance]

Correct! I blame a certain Houston-based meteorologist for this deviation.

Lots of time (and model runs) to go. By the way, I read some interesting stuff this morning from some pro mets who like the ICON more than the GFS in the short range. They claimed it performed better.

I've found the ICON to be a pretty useful tool when preparing forecasts. One of the best forecasting tools that we have now is the NBM model, which is a blend of several different models. I'm not sure if its data is freely available, but it is on Pivotal Weather Plus and WeatherBell.

What is it showing for Wednesday night/Thursday as compared to the individuals? I’m actually thinking of subscribing to plus just to look at the NBM.

You can also see the 6z & 18z Euro models! Go try it!

Also, the 12z Euro has started, what will it say?

[Ralph's Weather]

March 2014 in East Texas we had a thunderstorm that dropped over 2 inches or sleet in a hour or two.

[Haris]

Damn euro is now S of GFS. How the tides change !!!

[Portastorm]

ICYMI … from the morning forecast discussion out of NWS Fort Worth:

Global model snow/ice accumulation forecasts...
- The temporal resolution (how many hours apart) of global models
in the extended period is usually 6 hours. The model generates a
precip-type forecast for the first hour of each time-step and
keeps it constant for the entire 6 hour block of time. In the
case of passing arctic fronts and/or changing temperatures, the
precip type in the real-world will be continuously changing.
However, the model is unaware of these temperature changes
between time-steps and assumes a constant p-type for 6 hours.
The model then generates a 6-hour QPF (Quantitative Precip
Forecast or how much liquid water will fall) and assumes all of
the QPF will fall as the pre-determined p-type for the entire 6
hours. If the meteorological situation involves rapidly changing
temperatures, such as behind arctic fronts, this effect creates
wildly unreliable and inaccurate snow & ice accumulation
forecasts. Next week is one of these situations, so please take
any model snow/ice forecast with a huge grain of salt for the
next couple days.

[Ntxw]

Damn euro is now S of GFS. How the tides change !!!

Euro is folding harder than heat miser's clothes in a suitcase for a trip.

[Texas Snow]

Damn euro is now S of GFS. How the tides change !!!

In upper levels this looks to be the step we were looking for from Euro

[gpsnowman]

Damn euro is now S of GFS. How the tides change !!!

Euro is folding harder than heat miser's clothes in a suitcase for a trip.

Hopefully more snow on the Euro. Regardless, some part of Texas will see some major ice.