Global model runs discussion

[ROCK]

18Z GFS shows the low like the NOGAPS at the Yuc channel but again it opens up to a wave.....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Rgv20]

0z CMC Has it in the BOC by day 10..

[somethingfunny]

00z Euro does NOT have it.



00z GFS run brewed it up more quickly, at 180hr, and had it crossing Florida by 216 (as a weak TS) and sent it out to sea to die by 264. The ensembles tell a different story, stretching it out and losing it after 228hr, indicating quite a bit of disagreement among the GFS ensembles. The individual ensemble members are, of course, too numerous to bother describing right now.

[cycloneye]

Here is this mornings discussion by HPC about futrure TC development in NW Caribbean/GOM:

RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO FAVORS TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF MEXICO...AND THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE TWO POSSIBLE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THAT
REGION DURING THE NEXT WEEK. SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ REGARDING THE
FIRST OF THE TWO POSSIBILITIES LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN NEXT SUNDAY...THERE IS LIMITED AND MAINLY GEFS-BASED
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORS A SOLUTION SOUTH OF THE 00Z GFS
REGARDING A POTENTIAL WARM CORE CYCLONE IN THE AREA. FOR
NOW...PLACED A WEAK LOW IN THAT AREA. THE 17Z CONFERENCE CALL
WITH NHC WILL LIKELY DISCUSS THIS FEATURE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON

ROTH

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=pmdepd

[JonathanBelles]

Is the HPC running 10-day graphics in house? The last graphic run (the 7-day graphic) is next Saturday, which currently does not have a low.

[cycloneye]

Is the HPC running 10-day graphics in house? The last graphic run (the 7-day graphic) is next Saturday, which currently does not have a low.

Here is the HPC on day 7 made this morning. Has a 1008 mb isobar but without the L.

[Aric Dunn]

actually the euro does have a system only problem is it keep its over the entirety of central America so never has a chance to develop. you will see an area in far sw carrib move NW emerge briefly east of belize then back over land at 216 hours with a 1006 closed isobar at the NW tip of the Yucatan.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... ml#picture

[Aric Dunn]

also looks like the beginning of the east pac system getting going. se corner/.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has at 168 hours a weak low in the NW Caribbean.

[Frank2]

The GFS shows a weak low on Day 8 - of course that could easily disappear by the next run...

Still the model does show the current Bermuda high breaking down and moving NE again, which hopefully means more rainfall (and cooler temps with the cloud cover) for us...

Today it's sunny but hot, even with the easterly seebreeeze...

[cycloneye]

The 12z ECMWF has nothing in the Atlantic side but has a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. (Not 93E) In other words,the models in general so far are not consistent on developing something in the NW Caribbean/GOM. Let's see if the next runs by the GFS/ECMWF provide more consensus or not.

[floridasun78]

like i say Long-range models can be tricky to watch their change alot time

[ROCK]

18Z NOGAPS has a hurricane at 180hr about to destroy the Yucatan. But its the NOGAPS....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[floridasun78]

ok that look like model gone wild it unlikely that will happen specifically the way it form

[jdray]

The GFS shows a weak low on Day 8 - of course that could easily disappear by the next run...

Still the model does show the current Bermuda high breaking down and moving NE again, which hopefully means more rainfall (and cooler temps with the cloud cover) for us...

Today it's sunny but hot, even with the easterly seebreeeze...

You can have all the rain you want down your way. North Florida is so drenched a spilled cup of water can cause a flash flood.

My concern is that with some models showing the Bermuda high moving away, more of the SE is open for any landfalling stuff.

[USTropics]

0z GFS running. Showing a very impressive system in the Pacific in the 80-100 hour range. In the 140-180 range low pressures are located in the Caribbean and the BOC. Nothing of real significance, a closed low does meander in the Caribbean through from 160-260 hours before crossing Yucatan and entering the BOC, but doesn't look particularly potent.

[USTropics]

The 0z ECMWF not picking up on any development in the Caribbean. It does have a frontal boundary pushing through Florida and into the GOM/Caribbean around the time that the GFS tries to develop something though. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are hinting at a possible system trying to form off of the east coast in the next 3-5 days, most likely subtropical in nature if anything does get going.

GFS Ensembles is also showing a weak system hanging around in the Caribbean before burying itself inland over the Yucatan Peninsula.

CMC is showing a system pushing off of the East Coast in the same time frame as the GFS/ECMWF but no tropical development in the GOM/BOC/Caribbean within the 144 hour time frame.

the experimental FIM model hints at a possible East Coast system, but nothing within the 144 hour time frame in the GOM/BOC/Caribbean.

All in all, the more likely area to look for in regards to immediate tropical development would be the east coast this coming week.

[NDG]

The way the reliable models have turned I doubt there will be any tropical development in the NW Caribbean/Southern GOM this week.

Yet another positive tilted trough will dig in the SE US as ridging across the Great Lakes and Ohio valley builds, this in turn will make most of the GOM and parts of NW Caribbean too hostile for development.

I don't know what kind of dope the NOGAPS is on when not even the CMC is now showing development, lol.

GFS & Euro still show lowering pressures but keep things broad with no real organization in the next 7-10 days.

May have to wait till next week for that area, if things don't change.



However, there might be something that might get going off of the Carolinas later this week as a piece of energy rotates off of the NE US and dives SW across the gulf stream, very similar set up like when Alberto formed.

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[ronjon]

Ok -grasping at straws here but the 06z NOGAPS shows a tropical cyclone in the central GOM at 180 hrs.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2012061106&prod=prp&tau=000&set=Tropical

[cycloneye]

More grasping with this 06z GFS. Take this with caution because is the first run that has something this strong in the GOM,is the 06z run and is long range. Let's wait for the 12z run and see if it shows the same.