ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Derek Ortt]

it wont be THAT bad if it hits the DR, unless it becomes more intense

their slopes still have trees. Terrible if it goes toward Haiti

of course, if the center reforms to the north, it puts the storm out of the worst mid level shear and it could intensify and head toward Puerto Rico

[Bocadude85]

it wont be THAT bad if it hits the DR, unless it becomes more intense

their slopes still have trees. Terrible if it goes toward Haiti

of course, if the center reforms to the north, it puts the storm out of the worst mid level shear and it could intensify and head toward Puerto Rico

And what do you think the chances of a center reforming are?

[caneseddy]

it wont be THAT bad if it hits the DR, unless it becomes more intense

their slopes still have trees. Terrible if it goes toward Haiti

of course, if the center reforms to the north, it puts the storm out of the worst mid level shear and it could intensify and head toward Puerto Rico

After last year's whatmmy with Hanna, Ike, and Gustav, I doubt Haiti can withstand much more

Do you think the center reforms north or not? Curiosity in me

[jaxfladude]

it wont be THAT bad if it hits the DR, unless it becomes more intense

their slopes still have trees. Terrible if it goes toward Haiti

of course, if the center reforms to the north, it puts the storm out of the worst mid level shear and it could intensify and head toward Puerto Rico

Thanks for the clarification....

[Aric Dunn]

lets play the waiting game.. who's in ??

[fci]

As a remnant low, will Erika be pushed North or will it end up travelling east?

EAST?? You meant West right?

As a remnant low it is a moot point where it heads.
It will only serve as a catalyst to enhance typical summer thunderstorms where it goes.
A repeat of what Ana was to South Florida when she came by as a remnant low.......... nothing much.....

But first, we hope that the system does not dump too much rain on our friends in The Islands.

[chzzdekr81]

Is there any chance of this entering the Gulf?

[Aric Dunn]

just to let yo all know that is the type of convection that is needed to tigthen this thing up .. it is right over the mean center and growing.. i would bet next recon find a better organized system if that convection continues..

[Bocadude85]

lets play the waiting game.. who's in ??

Lol we have been playing that game for days!

[Derek Ortt]

I really dont know if this will reform

[Aric Dunn]

Is there any chance of this entering the Gulf?

yes. but its may be nothing more than a wave so just keep watching to see what happens it has a long road ahead of it.

[vbhoutex]

Hope I don't double post again, but that flare up is growing

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

I am starting to think that we definitely have a complete decoupling of the mlc from whatever llc there was(not much imo). To me this looks like the Northern flare is heading just N of the islands while the Southern area seems to be heading somewhat sw. I also see plenty of shear still out ahead of it, especially over PR. Hopefully she will be disrupted enough to not be able to make a comeback and hopefully none of the "split" energy is strong enough to reform into anything down the road. Just posting possibilities what I see in the loop.

[Cryomaniac]

Is there any chance of this entering the Gulf?

The following is the opinion of Cryomaniac, and is not backed by any information, meteorological or otherwise, and as such it should not be used by anyone, for any purpose

I can't see it getting in the gulf, I will say that stranger things have happened though.

[Aric Dunn]

I really dont know if this will reform

reform derek.. really ..
lol its still a TS you know..

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

It will be very interesting if that area continues to burst and a center reforms up there... Lets stay tuned...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[Bocadude85]

just to let yo all know that is the type of convection that is needed to tigthen this thing up .. it is right over the mean center and growing.. i would bet next recon find a better organized system if that convection continues..

And where exactly is the mean center?

[chzzdekr81]

This storm could go anywhere... Have to keep an eye on it

[chzzdekr81]

I have a feeling about that storm coming off of the Africa coast... Has anyone seen it on satellite?

[Aric Dunn]

just to let yo all know that is the type of convection that is needed to tigthen this thing up .. it is right over the mean center and growing.. i would bet next recon find a better organized system if that convection continues..

And where exactly is the mean center?

hehe the advisory position ..

[terrapintransit]

Is there any chance of this entering the Gulf?

yes. but its may be nothing more than a wave so just keep watching to see what happens it has a long road ahead of it.

A "wave" in the Gulf could certainly turn into a Tsunami though with the current SST's it is harboring.