ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

So 18z HWRF comes in on the Texas LA border 929mb. Is that area heavily populated?

Interestingly, the coastline is sparsely populated but Beaumont, Lake Charles, and Lafayette slightly inland would be hit hard.

[Nederlander]

So 18z HWRF comes in on the Texas LA border 929mb. Is that area heavily populated?

Yes, particularly on the TX side with Port Arthur, Beaumont, and Orange (Golden Triangle) and all of Mid-Jefferson County (Port Neches, Groves, Nederland).

I think about 350,000 in Jefferson and Orange Counties on the TX side.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Prediction: I believe Laura will peak at 170mph and 899mb. Just a feeling. Hope I am dead wrong. Good luck to those in the path.

I'm going with 915mb/145kt. If this thing somehow gets to near 900mb it would be at least 160kt. The strongest system in western Gulf was Allen at 909mb/155kt.

I am accounting for a large size with wind speeds.

[eastcoastFL]

So 18z HWRF comes in on the Texas LA border 929mb. Is that area heavily populated?

Interestingly, the coastline is sparsely populated but Beaumont, Lake Charles, and Lafayette slightly inland would be hit hard.

https://i.imgur.com/yWmRWTT.png

Well as much as we don’t want to see this hit anyone that might be the best spot if it has to go somewhere


This is where it lands. Hopefully the people there get out tomorrow if that’s going to be landfall.

[eastcoastFL]

Prediction: I believe Laura will peak at 170mph and 899mb. Just a feeling. Hope I am dead wrong. Good luck to those in the path.

I'm going with 915mb/145kt. If this thing somehow gets to near 900mb it would be at least 160kt. The strongest system in western Gulf was Allen at 909mb/155kt.

I am accounting for a large size with wind speeds.

The NAM 3k has 890mb 170kt storm earlier

[Frank P]

certainly looks north of the forecast line in this radar loop

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[Hurrilurker]

If it's north of forecast doesn't isn't that potentially bad for New Orleans?

[Nederlander]

If it's north of forecast doesn't isn't that potentially bad for New Orleans?

It’ll be a long two days if we watch every wobble and stair step. - No model guidance to suggest NOLA is in play

[Aric Dunn]

The center is making quick work of cuba.. recon should be around when it emerges. which will be nice.

[Nimbus]

I am really surprised the Cuban Gov't has been allowing the AF recons fly over their territory on the way to Laura since relationships have gone down again between our two governments.

The good old days scanning film of the Cuban missile sites for JFK and planning a response.
Laura is going to make "Seven Days In May" seem like a princess fairy tale.

[bella_may]

certainly looks north of the forecast line in this radar loop

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

If that’s the center over Cuba then it looks well NE of the nhc track

[aspen]

I'm going with 915mb/145kt. If this thing somehow gets to near 900mb it would be at least 160kt. The strongest system in western Gulf was Allen at 909mb/155kt.

I am accounting for a large size with wind speeds.

The NAM 3k has 890mb 170kt storm earlier

That might be a decent estimate of maximum potential intensity in that region assuming everything is absolutely perfect — wind shear, UL wind patterns, outflow, atmospheric moisture, and inner core structure. Since the core will have some work to do and could end up on the slightly larger side, I’m going to guess Laura’s maximum possible intensity is around 135-145 kt.

[NDG]

AF recon got there too late, nothing but southerly winds that it will find where they are estimating the CoC to be.

[Frank P]

If it's north of forecast doesn't isn't that potentially bad for New Orleans?

maybe maybe not.. first would need RECON data to confirm... then we would need to input the data in the next round of model runs for their assessment... and it could only be just a temporary minor deviation and get back on course quickly ... so to tell if that single jump to the NW, if indeed it is verified, would not necessary make it any worse for NOLA but its something that central and SE LA would not feel very comfortable with IMO

[Aric Dunn]

AF recon got there too late, nothing but southerly winds that it will find where they are estimating the CoC to be.

if they fly around the west coast and back east.. by the time they get there.. center might be offshore..considering how quickly its crossing.

[supercane4867]

Impressive blowup of hot towers into sunset.

[tiger_deF]

Impressive blowup of hot towers into sunset.

https://i.imgur.com/GgJX57Z.gif

Especially considering over a third of its "eyewall" right now are the mountains of Cuba

[eastcoastFL]

Impressive blowup of hot towers into sunset.

https://i.imgur.com/GgJX57Z.gif

She tends to get really angry when land gets in her way

[NDG]

LMAO


...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING LAURA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
8:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 24
Location: 22.1°N 82.8°W
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

[aspen]

NHC has upped Laura’s intensity to 55kt/998 mbar for the 8pm intermediate advisory.