ATL: LAURA - Models

[Highteeld]

HMON trending west at hour 39 over the last few runs.

[Kingarabian]

00z hour 39:

[SoupBone]

HMON trending west at hour 39 over the last few runs.

Absolutely. I have no doubt they all will, the Euro is gonna be a doozy.

[catskillfire51]

HMON trending west at hour 39 over the last few runs.

Absolutely. I have no doubt they all will, the Euro is gonna be a doozy.

Yeah too much time put into this to not stay up for the Euro!

[Steve]

HWRF in to 15 hours. Looks more realistic than HMON to me.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2500&fh=15

[Ritzcraker]

HWRF in to 15 hours. Looks more realistic than HMON to me.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2500&fh=15

00z HWRF looks East of 18z to me...

[catskillfire51]

HWRF in to 15 hours. Looks more realistic than HMON to me.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2500&fh=15

Same position just 7mb stronger?

[Kingarabian]

00z HMON 45 + trend:

[catskillfire51]

HMON is a whole degree south from 18z at 45hr

[Steve]

You might be right there. It’s got 984 at 21z tomorrow so 5 EDT

[USTropics]

Same thing again, models shifting left at night. Can anyone explain? Is this typical? I was really hoping for a bucking of the windshield wiper trend and some consistency.

The complexities of forecasting are largely to attribute (both upstream with Marco's evolution and Laura's own interaction with the islands), which is why forecasts usually involve more than just one model suite (i.e. more than just 00z runs or just 12z runs). While the UKMET did shift east for a run, it has largely remained on the SW side of the guidance envelope, and thus has had the best track at 48 hours and even 72 hours. I never like to hug one model, but the track consistency would tend to want to weight a forecast towards it:

[Kingarabian]

00z HWRF 27:

[Kingarabian]

00z HMON hours 54-60:

[Steve]

HMON hits Cameron Parish super close to the border. Hone in tonight by all the early models to just across the state border in Texas.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2500&fh=60

[cheezyWXguy]

00z HMON hours 54-60:
https://i.imgur.com/CmeBdOW.gif

Kind of odd to me. Almost a full degree south of the 18z, then hits a wall and makes landfall in basically the same spot.

[Kingarabian]

00z HMON hours 54-60:
https://i.imgur.com/CmeBdOW.gif

Kind of odd to me. Almost a full degree south of the 18z, then hits a wall and makes landfall in basically the same spot.

Yeah that hooking abrupt North pull is very key. GFS did hint it at in some of its runs. Those are hard to forecast and sometimes don't even verify.

[Ritzcraker]

00z HMON hours 54-60:
https://i.imgur.com/CmeBdOW.gif

Kind of odd to me. Almost a full degree south of the 18z, then hits a wall and makes landfall in basically the same spot.

That’s just how it works out sometimes...

[Kingarabian]

00z HWRF 39:

[catskillfire51]

Also odd that even though it's weaker it's still further south. I really think we have either locked into beaumont/port arthur or 6z is going to throw a wrench.

[Kingarabian]

Also odd that even though it's weaker it's still further south. I really think we have either locked into beaumont/port arthur or 6z is going to throw a wrench.

Well CMC is pretty much a Galveston landfall. Euro does follow the CMC track at times. We'll see.