ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - MODELS

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Over the years the GFS has always been inconsistant.

[lebron23]

I'm not putting much faith into the models until a actual LLC develops

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I'm not putting much faith into the models until a actual LLC develops

Aint that the truth! I agree.

[vaffie]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

0Z Nam for what it's worth. This track keeps it so close to the Cuban coast that it doesn't have a chance to develop, it just misses the Keys and tracks WNW towards the TX/LA coasts. Quite a similar setup to the 12Z Euro, actually. I'm very curious to see how the 0Z Euro plays out, especially considering that the system has lost some vorticity/organization over the past few hours--a more disorganized system will track further west closer to Cuba.

[floridasun78]

so some model backoff of cat 1 hitting dade and broward or keys??

[Countrygirl911]

Hi everyone i leave for a few days and this pops up. I am hoping that it does not form at all we deffently do not need a storm near the oil spill. Is it me or does the computer models look erie/similar to huricane katrinas models. I just pry it does not get that bad and just dies out over night.

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps similar to previous runs..Miami to Mississippi

[ROCK]

EURO up next...well I guess in another hour or so....it should be very telling....I did notice some of the GFS ensembles move more west of late.....the GFS is jacked up with this run IMO....and I mean both the Ops and Para....

[Ivanhater]

And to throw a wrench Canadian sends a weak low to South Texas

[South Texas Storms]

haha wow just a sign that anywhere between texas and florida should still keep their eyes on this one...

[ROCK]

Ivan, NOGAPS run is at least consistent run after run.... Rarely do I see a MET lean on it though for guidance.....I take that back I seen DR Masters mention it a few times with Alex....but its still inferior to the other dynamics....JMO of course....

[ROCK]

And to throw a wrench Canadian sends a weak low to South Texas

AH HA!!! hello EURO runs for the past few days......Ivan its time for you to join the EURO Brotherhood...

[Ivanhater]

Hwrf still shows NW Florida

[Ivanhater]

Not happening Rock

I wonder if the Canadian sends it west because it's so weak. The ridge looks similar to the GFS on the Canadian, oriented SE to NW and displaced far to the north . Actually has the ridge only extending down to North MS and AL, certainly not strong enough to send a stronger storm that far west...ahh the tropics

[Ivanhater]

Actually just looked at the 12z run and the ridge lookes weaker on the 00Z run. The difference is this run sends a weak 1009mb Low west, instead of strengthening like the last run...

[ROCK]

Not happening Rock

I wonder if the Canadian sends it west because it's so weak. The ridge looks similar to the GFS on the Canadian, oriented SE to NW and displaced far to the north . Actually has the ridge only extending down to North MS and AL, certainly not strong enough to send a stronger storm that far west...ahh the tropics

maybe so....but its 2 things here that are plausible A) the CMC run is jacked up or B) its keying in on a strong ridge and weaker system IE EURO runs.

Need a few more runs of the CMC to really tell what its doing...The HWRF and GFDL are run off GFS data or I so I have been told. Could be why they are insist on taking this into FL Panhandle...

[ROCK]

Actually just looked at the 12z run and the ridge lookes weaker on the 00Z run. The difference is this run sends a weak 1009mb Low west, instead of strengthening like the last run...

any run that takes it into Cuba is going to disrupt the core (does have one yet :cough:) weaker system enter the GOM that seems hostile 5 days out I can see where its coming from.....

Here I go with CLIMO again.... but I would guesstimate that a ridge in July would be less likely to break way down than say late August and Sept....

[Ivanhater]

12z GFDL

[Ivanhater]

00Z Guidance

[vaffie]

Hwrf still shows NW Florida

It's always worth keeping in mind the biases that models have. EURO for instance has a low intensity bias--it usually grossly underestimates strength. It also has a typically westward bias. GFDL and HWRF however usually have a high intensity bias--they are usually stronger than actual, and on top of that they have an eastward bias. So the fact that they show a much stronger storm which will be pulled more to the north anyway and they have an eastward bias means that they are probably way to the right of the actual track. In fact if I were to choose a place to be this weekend, I would choose to be in Panama City over New Orleans. And frankly, I would rather be in New Orleans over Lake Charles or Galveston...