Pouch 07L approaching Lesser Antilles - (Is invest 90L)

[invest man]

After looking at the models, they seem to want to take the wave up the middle of PR & DR then Cuba. If this is the case then this is DOA. Nogaps is the only one that really show anything and that is because it has it north of islands. That being said this probably much to do about nothing!

[Gustywind]

Here are the latest weather forecasts from Guadeloupe given Meteo-France Guadeloupe. You can also have a pic of Guadeloupe radar showing the showers and tstorms heading... Hope that everyone will enjoy it.

For those who are interrested, click on this link: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... h_guad.php
Regards.
Gustywind:)

The time for the next few hours on the Guadeloupe
Animated radar is updated every 15 mins, the satellite animation is updated hourly and forecast bulletin at least every 3 hours during the day.
Weather-France Guadeloupe Hello!
06: 45 Pm the level of vigilance is yellow for heavy rain and thunderstorms.
At the present time, the time is highly variable, with periods of calm, but also enough sustained showers which may be accompanied by gusty winds. In the next three hours, locally heavy showers will alternate with a few periods of thinnings.
These observations and immediate changes will be updated to 09 h 45.

[Blown Away]

After looking at the models, they seem to want to take the wave up the middle of PR & DR then Cuba. If this is the case then this is DOA. Nogaps is the only one that really show anything and that is because it has it north of islands. That being said this probably much to do about nothing!

IMO, if the wave stays weak and shallow it will take a more western track through the islands, but if it deepens it will get tugged N of the islands. I think that is what the models are seeing.

[Dean4Storms]

There is very little convection, dry air, big islands downstream, very little model support. I'm amazed at the increase to 20% chances for the next 48 hrs.

Don't see much chance at least until it reaches the Gulf and then who knows.

[Bad_Hurricane]

Code: Select all

SYNOPSIS 2011072100

P07L
14N, 46W
925hPa

Like yesterday, I tracked at 925 hPa in order to get a few more positions for GFS.

ECMWF:  Intensifies.  Like the other models, ECMWF then weakens it as it moves along the northern side of the Leeward Islands.

GFS:  Consistent story.  A large, distinct pouch at analysis gradually dissipates as it moves toward the northern Windward Islands.

UKMET:  Still intensifies P07L, although perhaps not as much as recent forecast runs.

NOGAPS:  Yesterday's run was the first that NOGAPS maintained P07L.  Now, NOGAPS definitely intensifies it.

ECMWF   -9.5   v7/8/9 & RH   120h
GFS     -9.8   v700 & RH/TPW   120h
UKMET    -9.8   v7/9 & RH   120h
NOGAPS  -8.5   v7/8/9 & RH   120h

source:http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo

[cycloneye]

Is invest 90L so the thread is closed.Go to active storms/invests forum to continue the discussions about this system.