ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[tobol.7uno]

[tobol.7uno]

Convection trying to curve around the west side of the center. Facing difficulties!

[abajan]

Latest Public Advisory:

000
WTNT31 KNHC 220240
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST WED SEP 21 2011

...OPHELIA CONTINUING WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...CENTER
PASSING SOUTH OF NOAA BUOY 41041...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 46.2W
ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OPHELIA.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.2 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41041...LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 51 MPH...
83 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 60 MPH...97 KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[tobol.7uno]

11pm Discussion...

Code: Select all

000
WTNT41 KNHC 220240
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
1100 PM AST WED SEP 21 2011

INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS THAT
OPHELIA CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINING NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT...AND NOAA BUOY 41041 RECENTLY REPORTED
1-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 45 KT.  BASED ON THE BUOY AND THE LIKELIHOOD
THAT IT DID NOT SAMPLE THE MAXIMUM WIND...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/13.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO EITHER THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY.  A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF OPHELIA SHOULD
STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE STORM SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES IN THE
CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT
OPHELIA IS EXPERIENCING 20-25 KT OF SHEAR DUE IN PART TO AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM.  ALL OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR IS LIKELY
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AND IN RESPONSE MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER 72 HR.  THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOW ITS WESTWARD MOTION AS IT MOVES NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA.  THIS COULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO CATCH UP WITH THE TROUGH
AND ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR...OR TURN NORTHWARD EAST OF THE TROUGH
AND ENCOUNTER LIGHTER SHEAR.  THE GFS TENDS TOWARD THE LATTER
SOLUTION...WHILE THE GFDL MAKE OPHELIA A HURRICANE AFTER 96 HR.  ON
THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF SHOWS VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR
THE STORM FROM 96-120 HR.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 13.7N  46.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 14.0N  48.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 14.3N  50.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 15.2N  53.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 16.3N  55.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 18.5N  60.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  26/0000Z 21.5N  64.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  27/0000Z 23.5N  66.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


[bexar]

now up to 55 KTS

actually, I didn't expect her yesterday that she would even go beyong 40 KT

[Gustywind]

22/0545 UTC 13.0N 46.0W T3.0/3.0 OPHELIA
21/2345 UTC 13.4N 45.6W T3.0/3.0 OPHELIA

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 220853
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 AM AST THU SEP 22 2011

...OPHELIA INTENSIFIES A LITTLE BUT FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 47.0W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

[chrisjslucia]

Why the confidence Ophelia is going to turn towards the North? - she has dropped a touch south overnight, between the 11 pm and today's 5 am advisories:

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 46.2W
ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 47.0W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


She has also strengthened although NHC see this as short term and forecasts she will weaken again soon.

But the direction concerns me.

[brunota2003]

I don't think it is so much that she dropped south, as it is the NHC just had to relocate the center due to a pass that showed the center a little further south that what they were estimating.

[cycloneye]

Discussion by Rob of Crown Weather:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rob Lightbown on September 22, 2011, 5:34 am

Tropical Storm Ophelia:
Ophelia has strengthened more than what was expected over the last 24 hours and as of this morning, the storm has 65 mph maximum winds. This strengthening is expected to come to a grinding halt as strong southwesterly wind shear will start to impact Ophelia over the next couple of days. This shear will cause the storm to weaken to a weak tropical storm and very possibly a tropical depression by late Friday into Saturday. Strengthening may once again occur, very much like what happened with Maria, once Ophelia is located about halfway between Bermuda and the north coast of Puerto Rico by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

Ophelia is tracking to the west at a forward speed of 13 to 14 mph this morning and Ophelia is expected to turn to the west-northwest once we get into Friday. A turn to the northwest is expected this weekend and this should bring Ophelia far enough north and east of the islands of the northeastern Caribbean to cause no significant impacts there. With that said, all interests in the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor the progress of Ophelia.

Once we get into next week, Ophelia is forecast to turn to the north and potentially impact Bermuda right around Wednesday and Thursday of next week with tropical storm conditions possible. Ophelia is expected to stay well east of the United States and will not impact the weather along the US East Coast

[chrisjslucia]

I don't think it is so much that she dropped south, as it is the NHC just had to relocate the center due to a pass that showed the center a little further south that what they were estimating.

Thanks Brunota, I went back and read the NHC info in full and they did state there had been a relocation of the centre.

[clfenwi]

12Z best track

AL, 16, 2011092212, , BEST, 0, 136N, 475W, 55, 994

[HurrMark]

This could definitely do a Maria in recurve and become a cat-1 Hurricane...if it survives the next few days. The female-named storms seem to have what it takes this year...

[HurricaneWarning92]

crickets...

[Jimsot]

crickets...

Ophelia is dying a lonely death (on the forum), but I am glad she will pass 200 miles away from us. We have had a busy enough season already.

[wxman57]

crickets...

Nobody cares about poor old Ophelia. I think most here are confident that the conditions across the Atlantic Basin just aren't "right" for development/strengthening this year. Conditions ahead of Ophelia don't look any different than they were for Maria. Ophelia might have a shot at strengthening to a hurricane (if it holds together its LLC) once it passes the NE Caribbean and begins the recurve on Monday and before the wind shear increases. The threat to the NE Caribbean appears minimal, though, as all of Maria's significant winds and squalls should remain north and east (right) of the track.

[caribepr]

crickets...

Nobody cares about poor old Ophelia. I think most here are confident that the conditions across the Atlantic Basin just aren't "right" for development/strengthening this year. Conditions ahead of Ophelia don't look any different than they were for Maria. Ophelia might have a shot at strengthening to a hurricane (if it holds together its LLC) once it passes the NE Caribbean and begins the recurve on Monday and before the wind shear increases. The threat to the NE Caribbean appears minimal, though, as all of Maria's significant winds and squalls should remain north and east (right) of the track.

We care, we're just being very, very quiet so she won't hear us whispering about her. That's the science of (certain) island thinking.

[CrazyC83]

Weird storm - looks like crap, yet is almost a hurricane...

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Even Stormpulse has dropped Ophelia from it's map. http://www.stormpulse.com/

[wxman57]

Weird storm - looks like crap, yet is almost a hurricane...

Well, probably not almost a hurricane. Convection is way down from last night. Probably 40 or 45 kts now. And it's sucking in a big gulp of dry air on the western side now.