ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[NCSTORMMAN]

GFS ensembles...

When I see that graphic I get the urge to eat fish. Think it is God telling me to go fishing and catch some panfish.

GFS is hungry for some fish.
I would expect an 11pm initializer? Anyone else?

lol the center is exposing itself due to magical shear. So, no I do not think so. I think models will start trending weaker and weaker and even if it develops it will go out to sea.

[SFLcane]

00z track models for soon to be Erika..

[SFLcane]

@JohnMoralesNBC6 If she forms, this is where #Erika could be by late this week.

[WPBWeather]

GFS ensembles...


lol the center is exposing itself due to magical shear. So, no I do not think so. I think models will start trending weaker and weaker and even if it develops it will go out to sea.

[/quote]

Well, you've been right before. Hope you're right now.

[tolakram]

Let's keep the non model chatter to a minimum in this thread please.

Also, please remember to copy images to a image hosting site (imgur, imageshack, tinypic) if you want to embed the image, otherwise just post a link.

18Z HWRF run, saving these to my imageshack account since we lost a bunch in the Danny thread.

[hurricaneCW]

Be mindful of using the word "fish". If the storm affects any land mass then it's automatically not a fish.

[Bocadude85]

GFS ensembles...


lol the center is exposing itself due to magical shear. So, no I do not think so. I think models will start trending weaker and weaker and even if it develops it will go out to sea.

Well, you've been right before. Hope you're right now.[/quote]

Which models show this going out to sea?

[Blown Away]

GFDL/HWRF usually aren't great with the track and have a bias towards over intensifying systems...

[NCSTORMMAN]

Most of the GFS models and I believe it will happen if it develops and if it doesn't shear will rip it apart. It only has two choices. Develop and out to sea or stay weak and be ripped apart.

[Bocadude85]

GFDL/HWRF usually aren't great with the track and have a bias towards over intensifying systems...

I agree. In my opinion if 98L does affect South Florida it would most likely be as a tropical storm. I am still not 100% sure this will even develop.

[Blown Away]

Most of the GFS models and I believe it will happen if it develops and if it doesn't shear will rip it apart. It only has two choices. Develop and out to sea or stay weak and be ripped apart.

When it comes to the GFS, it may not just be shear... Nearly all the models are generally weak as they approach 65W, the GFS is no exception, but the GFS takes a trip over PR, Hispaniola, and Cuba, so there was no way for 98L to begin to develop on that track with or w/o the help of shear.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Most of the GFS models and I believe it will happen if it develops and if it doesn't shear will rip it apart. It only has two choices. Develop and out to sea or stay weak and be ripped apart.

When it comes to the GFS, it may not just be shear... Nearly all the models are generally weak as they approach 65W, the GFS is no exception, but the GFS takes a trip over PR, Hispaniola, and Cuba, so there was no way for 98L to begin to develop on that track with or w/o the help of shear.

Shear is forecasted to be magical around the Caribbean and even in the Bahamas according to the GFS. The GFS was right about shear with Danny and seems to be able to forecast it better than most that far out.

[Hammy]

This may never close off at all, Euro doesn't show anything more than a strong wave until the last frame at 240 hours, and if anything has it less defined after today.

[Bocadude85]

Most of the GFS models and I believe it will happen if it develops and if it doesn't shear will rip it apart. It only has two choices. Develop and out to sea or stay weak and be ripped apart.

Have you looked at the forecast steering? No way this plows through a ridge. Even if it does develop.

[gatorcane]

This may never close off at all, Euro doesn't show anything more than a strong wave until the last frame at 240 hours, and if anything has it less defined after today.

With Danny the Euro waivered quite a bit initially as well. I would say the Euro is showing more than a strong wave, looks like it maintains a low through the run, for example 120 hours below:

[NCSTORMMAN]

Most of the GFS models and I believe it will happen if it develops and if it doesn't shear will rip it apart. It only has two choices. Develop and out to sea or stay weak and be ripped apart.

Have you looked at the forecast steering? No way this plows through a ridge. Even if it does develop.

I believe a weakness will appear in the ridge right at the right time if and a BIG IF it develops.

[Blown Away]

EURO needs to got to the graphics team for the GFDL/HWRF, they know how to present a hurricane...

[hurricaneCW]

Most of the GFS models and I believe it will happen if it develops and if it doesn't shear will rip it apart. It only has two choices. Develop and out to sea or stay weak and be ripped apart.

Have you looked at the forecast steering? No way this plows through a ridge. Even if it does develop.

I believe a weakness will appear in the ridge right at the right time if and a BIG IF it develops.

Any reason why you believe that? Models are getting increasingly more bullish on the ridging over the east.

[NCSTORMMAN]

The flip flopping of the models. Ridging this early being predicted will likely change to a trough. Just an opinion of course and I have been wrong a lot. Of course I have been right a lot as well.

[stormlover2013]

It's usually other way around, models are to strong on troughs this early in the season and get better around October