tolakram wrote:GFS did not have it until Sunday afternoon. Here's the 0Z Sunday run that at least showed the disturbance, prior to that it was doing what it's doing now and completely losing any vorticity. The 12Z Sunday run had a decent TS or hurricane. What I find interesting is that both models seemed to come around near the same time, as if something (inputs) changed in a pretty big way. He 12Z Sunday euro run had a much stronger storm and both models locked on to a similar solution from that point on.
Advisories for Gert were initiated at 3Z Sunday. Seems like that's when the models began to see it. After realizing Gert was there, the models were also paying catch up with Gert's intensity, under forecasting near term strength.
