ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

much more realistic GFS run. though the likelyhood of RI is quite possible and a major hurricane entering the GUlf may happen.

Also background pressures are pretty high so a steep pressure gradient with a small system like this may lead to higher winds with not as low of pressure.

[Javlin]

12z GFS LA landfall point is @400 miles W of the NHC landfall point near Panama City...

Within 4 days of landfall as well. That's insane. CMC is coming in much stronger than the GFS and has 993mb at the Yucatan rather than the North Gulf Coast. I could see CMC hitting Cat 2 on this run, but it's unclear where landfall will be yet.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=440

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=357

Even the CMC alittle further W.

[Steve]

66 Hours Emerging off the North Central Yucatan. That's valid for 1am CDT on Saturday.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=293

78 Hours has a West component still as the center is about due south of Grand Isle, LA and getting pulled up by the trough. That's Saturday about 11:00am CDT.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=293

GFS trending weaker at 84 hours:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=440

I'm very skeptical that this makes landfall in the Yucatan. If it does, I think it will barely clip the NE tip of it.

Gotcha. I don't have an opinion. I think it has the opportunity to, but I don't know if it does or not unless the flow out of the East is just too strong for it not to as a weaker system at those points. But CMC hits SELA faster than the GFS (84 hours around Port Fouchon which would be valid for 7pm Saturday night. Fujiwara in effect too with the CMC as the first low still is on the map dancing with Nate.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=293

[Kazmit]

If this doesn't crash into Nicaragua (or a least for not very long) I can see this as a decent hurricane entering the Gulf.

[Steve]

Interestingly, CMC brings back Low #1 as a double barrel shot to SE LA and landfalls that as an intensifying tropical storm 2 days after Nate. I'm going to have to agree with the too much Hennessey last night for CMC because that's just a very odd solution to me. I'm not saying it's impossible - just unlikely.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

HWRF and HMON will be the next models to run followed by the NAVGEM.

[stormlover2013]

Ridge is stronger that's why they show more west

[SoupBone]

much more realistic GFS run. though the likelyhood of RI is quite possible and a major hurricane entering the GUlf may happen.

Also background pressures are pretty high so a steep pressure gradient with a small system like this may lead to higher winds with not as low of pressure.

Realistic in what way? I have a tough time believing that the NHC would discard the GFS altogether if they even slightly believed its track. They've been so conservative this year with tracks that I'm just having a tough time wrapping my head around it.

[gatorcane]

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.10.2017 0 12.0N 82.0W 1007 21
0000UTC 05.10.2017 12 12.8N 82.7W 1004 24
1200UTC 05.10.2017 24 13.9N 83.7W 1001 28
0000UTC 06.10.2017 36 15.6N 84.4W 1001 32
1200UTC 06.10.2017 48 18.1N 86.0W 996 31
0000UTC 07.10.2017 60 20.8N 87.4W 993 37
1200UTC 07.10.2017 72 23.7N 88.9W 991 41
0000UTC 08.10.2017 84 27.1N 88.9W 988 53
1200UTC 08.10.2017 96 30.5N 87.3W 980 57
0000UTC 09.10.2017 108 33.3N 84.4W 987 27
1200UTC 09.10.2017 120 35.7N 81.6W 997 25
0000UTC 10.10.2017 132 39.2N 78.3W 1005 25
1200UTC 10.10.2017 144 CEASED TRACKING

[South Texas Storms]

12z UKMET: Looks like landfall near Pensacola.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 82.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.10.2017 0 12.0N 82.0W 1007 21
0000UTC 05.10.2017 12 12.8N 82.7W 1004 24
1200UTC 05.10.2017 24 13.9N 83.7W 1001 28
0000UTC 06.10.2017 36 15.6N 84.4W 1001 32
1200UTC 06.10.2017 48 18.1N 86.0W 996 31
0000UTC 07.10.2017 60 20.8N 87.4W 993 37
1200UTC 07.10.2017 72 23.7N 88.9W 991 41
0000UTC 08.10.2017 84 27.1N 88.9W 988 53
1200UTC 08.10.2017 96 30.5N 87.3W 980 57
0000UTC 09.10.2017 108 33.3N 84.4W 987 27
1200UTC 09.10.2017 120 35.7N 81.6W 997 25
0000UTC 10.10.2017 132 39.2N 78.3W 1005 25
1200UTC 10.10.2017 144 CEASED TRACKING

[SunnyThoughts]

Yeah, 980 me into Pensacola area with that model.

[Ivanhater]

models shifting west...If the Euro follows, track will shift with it

[stormlover2013]

All about timing and if it gets close to channel

[Alyono]

can ignore GFS and CMC unless Ophelia actually forms tomorrow in the Gulf

[BucMan2]

What models will have the updated data from the recon mission? That should give a much better idea of where he will go!

Craig

[rockyman]

HWRF brings system to hurricane in 24 hours.

[chris_fit]

I just want to add that if the ECMF does not shift west (start running in an hour or so) - this will be one of the largest differences in track that I have ever seen at Day 5. Who will prevail?!

[tolakram]

12Z GFS, at least no horrible feedback this run.

[Stormcenter]

Well who knows that might not be that farfetched after all.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-vis.html

can ignore GFS and CMC unless Ophelia actually forms tomorrow in the Gulf

[NDG]

I just want to add that if the ECMF does not shift west (start running in an hour or so) - this will be one of the largest differences in track that I have ever seen at Day 5. Who will prevail?!

Day 5? More like days 3-4!

[GCANE]

Recon already running into a high rain-rate cell, nearly 40 mm/hr.