its all 700mb and above. keep looking west for now.
and that MLC is moving off to the ne which should tell you all you need.
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LarryWx wrote:With questions about where any low leading to TC genesis would be located and when it would occur, climo going back to 1851 would be as good a wild guess as any at this very early stage....I.e., a move N to NE over FL. But obviously anything is on the table from a miss off the SE coast to a left hook into the SE US to a track into the Gulf, etc.and of course strength is way, way up in the air due to land interaction, El Niño enhanced shear in places, record warm SSTs for early October all around SE US, and extra unpredictability of strength in Oct.
stormlover2013 wrote:Models can’t be reliable till 3-4 days out
AJC3 wrote:LarryWx wrote:With questions about where any low leading to TC genesis would be located and when it would occur, climo going back to 1851 would be as good a wild guess as any at this very early stage....I.e., a move N to NE over FL. But obviously anything is on the table from a miss off the SE coast to a left hook into the SE US to a track into the Gulf, etc.and of course strength is way, way up in the air due to land interaction, El Niño enhanced shear in places, record warm SSTs for early October all around SE US, and extra unpredictability of strength in Oct.
This is a case where one would want to (where possible) reconstruct mean mid level heights/anomalies for those previous cases, grouping them into the various track scenarios. This is a pretty anomalous pattern we're in right now, with an unusually large and persistent area of positive 500MB height anomalies of between 60 and 120M over the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic, which is forecast to persist for more than a week from now
stormlover2013 wrote:Models have struggled all year I don’t trust a model past 3 days I’ve been tracking hurricanes for 15 years now and anything 5-7 day range I don’t really look at...
Abdullah wrote:The Eastern Vort seems to be dominating on 500 mB. In 200 mB, not a trace.
Aric Dunn wrote:
its all 700mb and above. keep looking west for now.
and that MLC is moving off to the ne which should tell you all you need.
Hurricaneman wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:
its all 700mb and above. keep looking west for now.
and that MLC is moving off to the ne which should tell you all you need.
Actually the 850 low formed under the MLC but the MLC has been sheared to the NE so the 850 low is south of Jamaica by about 250miles and is stationary
AJC3 wrote:LarryWx wrote:With questions about where any low leading to TC genesis would be located and when it would occur, climo going back to 1851 would be as good a wild guess as any at this very early stage....I.e., a move N to NE over FL. But obviously anything is on the table from a miss off the SE coast to a left hook into the SE US to a track into the Gulf, etc.and of course strength is way, way up in the air due to land interaction, El Niño enhanced shear in places, record warm SSTs for early October all around SE US, and extra unpredictability of strength in Oct.
This is a case where one would want to (where possible) reconstruct mean mid level heights/anomalies for those previous cases, grouping them into the various track scenarios. This is a pretty anomalous pattern we're in right now, with an unusually large and persistent area of positive 500MB height anomalies of between 60 and 120M over the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic, which is forecast to persist for more than a week from now
WeatherEmperor wrote:I see almost nothing on the GFS so far. Is it dropping development all of a sudden??
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181003/d6e56f9b748143b922ea400069030f84.png
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WeatherEmperor wrote:I see almost nothing on the GFS so far. Is it dropping development all of a sudden??
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181003/d6e56f9b748143b922ea400069030f84.png
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