ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stormybajan]

https://i.postimg.cc/yxj3pLvh/B1-F851-E6-E5-EF-4-EB3-91-A8-1-BC547-CD515-C.gif

This is one of weirdest looking PTCS I've ever seen. Convection looks fairly decent with the banding (and improving) in the northern section of the potential cyclone and the south is just completely devoid of any convection...also looks to me like the center is going due west for right now and has just passed over Martinque. Lets if it can fight off the dry air

[tropicwatch]

Despite much of the convection shunted a bit north and east, it appears to me that the LLC continues to become better defined. Another observation is that the present term motion of the COC appears practically due west. Finally, banding features are far more impressive then 24 hr's ago.

The circulation appears more concentrated and looks like a decent outflow has started.

[SFLcane]

From 11pm advisory.

However, the environmental conditions could become more favorable for strengthening again by the end of the week, which
is the reason why the forecast shows slightly higher wind speeds at those time periods.

[toad strangler]

From 11pm advisory.

However, the environmental conditions could become more favorable for strengthening again by the end of the week, which
is the reason why the forecast shows slightly higher wind speeds at those time periods.

11PM 5 day cone turned oh so slightly to the N & E

[SFLcane]

From 11pm advisory.

However, the environmental conditions could become more favorable for strengthening again by the end of the week, which
is the reason why the forecast shows slightly higher wind speeds at those time periods.

11PM 5 day cone turned oh so lightly to the N & E

Weakness will be there. If this relocates north or goes north of islands I would definitely go much higher in intensity.

[Yellow Evan]

[toad strangler]

From 11pm advisory.

However, the environmental conditions could become more favorable for strengthening again by the end of the week, which
is the reason why the forecast shows slightly higher wind speeds at those time periods.

11PM 5 day cone turned oh so lightly to the N & E

Weakness will be there. If this relocates north or goes north of islands I would definitely go much higher in intensity.

The only way for PTC6 to go N of Hispaniola is to hit PR head on ...

[floridasun78]

you can see dry air hitting from south side of PTC6 tonight

[aspen]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/874486839015256134/LATEST.png

Well that’s a really annoying position for a storm to get an ASCAT pass. Much of the maximum winds were likely missed because of the islands. We’ll have to wait for recon to figure out if we have an open TD-force wave or a closed TS by tomorrow morning.

[Woofde]

Half the cone is in Hispaniola half is out. It also should be noted that the "shredder" parts of Hispaniola are in the Center and South. The Northern third which still features mountains rises to about 1000m a little under half in height of the Central and Southern mountains.

Puerto Rico could have a significant influence on the Storm, but probably not enough to kill it.

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[IsabelaWeather]

11PM 5 day cone turned oh so lightly to the N & E

Weakness will be there. If this relocates north or goes north of islands I would definitely go much higher in intensity.

The only way for PTC6 to go N of Hispaniola is to hit PR head on ...

I mean, not really. It could hit anywhere in the SW corner and be ok, which would line it up to hit the north shore of the DR neither of which would hurt it much.

[Woofde]

Here is a terrain map of Hispaniola from NASA that shows the various features.

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[Category5Kaiju]

Half the cone is in Hispaniola half is out. It also should be noted that the "shredder" parts of Hispaniola are in the Center and South. The Northern third which still features mountains rises to about 1000m a little under half in height of the Central and Southern mountains.

Puerto Rico could have a significant influence on the Storm, but probably not enough to kill it.

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This is very much a key point that should definitely be worth considering. Many people seem to think that the entire island itself is like some sort of glaring deathtrap for any storms that go near or over it, but in reality the angle of the storm strike, the linear speed of the storm, and the exact location on that island where the storm tracks over could mean the difference between an intact storm that is barely scathed versus disintegration.

[toad strangler]

Half the cone is in Hispaniola half is out. It also should be noted that the "shredder" parts of Hispaniola are in the Center and South. The Northern third which still features mountains rises to about 1000m a little under half in height of the Central and Southern mountains.

Puerto Rico could have a significant influence on the Storm, but probably not enough to kill it.

Sent from my SM-G988U1 using Tapatalk

This is very much a key point that should definitely be worth considering. Many people seem to think that the entire island itself is like some sort of glaring deathtrap for any storms that go near or over it, but in reality the angle of the storm strike, the linear speed of the storm, and the exact location on that island where the storm tracks over could mean the difference between an intact storm that is barely scathed versus disintegration.

These are things dissected over and over again when a system dances with the Shredder Chain. These islands didn't just pop up last night out of the Caribbean

[Blown Away]

5pm had PTC6 at 15.4N/61.4W at 2am EST...

[Hurricane Mike]

Here is an 11:30pm video on PTC 6
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1G9YCLwLDO0

[Woofde]

Half the cone is in Hispaniola half is out. It also should be noted that the "shredder" parts of Hispaniola are in the Center and South. The Northern third which still features mountains rises to about 1000m a little under half in height of the Central and Southern mountains.

Puerto Rico could have a significant influence on the Storm, but probably not enough to kill it.

Sent from my SM-G988U1 using Tapatalk

This is very much a key point that should definitely be worth considering. Many people seem to think that the entire island itself is like some sort of glaring deathtrap for any storms that go near or over it, but in reality the angle of the storm strike, the linear speed of the storm, and the exact location on that island where the storm tracks over could mean the difference between an intact storm that is barely scathed versus disintegration.

These are things dissected over and over again when a system dances with the Shredder Chain. These islands didn't just pop up last night out of the Caribbean

True, but the geography of Hispaniola is quite complex and it never hurts to brush up on it.

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[ElectricStorm]

If I was in S FL I would be watching this one very closely. If it follows the current NHC track, it might miss the tallest mountains and have a better chance to survive. Of course if it stays weak then the mountains may not affect it much anyway. If it gets through there and finds some favorable conditions, it might intensify pretty quickly. Personally, I think we'll be looking at a mid-TS in the Caribbean followed by an upper TS into FL. I can't rule out a Cat 1 hurricane but I think the chances of that are low for now. We'll have to see how it interacts with the islands first. If it gets through there intact then watch out. HWRF and GFS hinting at favorable conditions.

I just hope it doesn't find good conditions and strengthen quickly on approach to FL as that wouldn't give people much time to prepare for it. Again, I think the odds of that are low but I would be watching this like a hawk if I was there since it's been awhile since they've had a direct hit by any storm.

[emeraldislenc]

To be honest I get tired of hearing the word shredder to me it seems like an overkill as if a storm never made it past Haiti or the Dominican Republic. Just my two cents worth!

[IsabelaWeather]

Hmm, is that the center with the 3 new strong thunderstorms? They look like they are wrapping around a central point.