ATL: IDA - Models

[IcyTundra]

Starting to bend to the west will probably show another Louisiana hit.

[Clearcloudz]

[SouthFLTropics]

I literally just posted in the discussion thread that I think this is going to shift east since it is coming together so quickly. It's still early in the game but this game is moving fast. Anyone on the gulf coast should be ready for a significant hit within the next 5-6 days.

[Javlin]

lol at 60hz its going almost due north. florida ? or GFS off the rocker? they all seem to think that ridge is gonna go poof. whew i feel for the NHC on this one heh

Observe what has happened today movement has been NNW the N blob appears to have won ATTM the TUTT to the N seems to be aiding this movement.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

[SoupBone]

18Z GFS due south of the mouth of the Mississippi River...

[BobHarlem]

Looks like 18z GFS is heading toward E. Louisiana now, and a heck of a lot faster, almost a whole day sooner than 12z.

[cheezyWXguy]

These models are all fine and good, but I wouldn’t take anything too literally until at least tomorrow. Until a consolidated center has formed, there will be considerable variation between runs and models. I believe this is the main reason for the large spread on the ensembles. Plus, the recon data we get tomorrow may alter things further.

This is a tough situation because more time is needed to nail this down, but by the time it is, it may not be enough time to keep people from being caught off guard. But I guess that’s the case with most landfalling majors, isn’t it

[Clearcloudz]

New Orleans she coming to dance with you for mardi gras

[grapealcoholic]

The warmest waters are in the western GOM

[Frank P]

GFS heading straight for NOLA as a powerful cane? Wtf is going on..

[IcyTundra]

Not buying this GFS run has it moving way to fast I would be shocked if this makes landfall on Sunday night like the 18Z GFS is showing.

[tolakram]

[SoupBone]

I agree this GFS run is on hyperspeed which seems wholely unrealistic at this point.

[Clearcloudz]

[Woofde]

GFS is 954mb into South Eastern Louisiana , it's much faster too.

[grapealcoholic]

They would need to issue Hurricane Watches for NOLA like... tonight

[IcyTundra]

18Z GFS has it making landfall 42 hours earlier than the 12Z run. Moving way to fast toss this run out unless it starts to string a couple runs together where it also does that.

[Javlin]

https://i.imgur.com/2ehvs2N.png

Well lets wait and see what pans out in the next 36hrs but that's a K redux!

[ronyan]

At this rate, by tomorrow it will show it hooking out into the Atlantic barely grazing south florida.

[tolakram]

They would need to issue Hurricane Watches for NOLA like... tonight

Watches are issued 48 hours in advance of TS force winds. It's Wednesday and this is projected to be near the coast Monday morning.