ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Getting closer to Guadeloupe around 16.0N.

[Jr0d]

This thread got awfully quiet.

Yeah, now that a Florida impact is highly unlikely and a CONUS is doubtful, many folks lose interest quick.

If the models trend left over the weekend, then forum activity will greatly pick up. If the models hold steady or keep trending right expect the forum to remain quiet.

Now the CMC caved to a more OTS(though it does impact the OBX), I am fairly confident of no impact fir S Florida, was not confident yesterday evening.

[wxman57]

Center is farther west of the convection now as shear increases. Fiona's intensity will pulse up and down as shear fluctuates. Recon got there at its peak, I think. May be a little weaker now.

[tolakram]

visible floater https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[tolakram]

saved loop

[Blown Away]

Center is farther west of the convection now as shear increases. Fiona's intensity will pulse up and down as shear fluctuates. Recon got there at its peak, I think. May be a little weaker now.

INIT 16/0900Z 15.7N 58.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 15.9N 60.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 16.3N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 16.7N 64.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 17.0N 66.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 17.3N 67.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 18.1N 69.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 20.0N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 22.0N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

5am had Fiona crossing 60 at 1800z (1pm EST??) and she will cross @Noon? I know it's minor, but if Fiona is moving slightly faster than forecasted how does that impact near PR/Hispaniola?

[ouragans]

Getting closer to Guadeloupe around 16.0N.

https://i.imgur.com/o2BdoVk.gif

and if you look closely, you can see me wave from there

[Emmett_Brown]

Center is farther west of the convection now as shear increases. Fiona's intensity will pulse up and down as shear fluctuates. Recon got there at its peak, I think. May be a little weaker now.

INIT 16/0900Z 15.7N 58.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 15.9N 60.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 16.3N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 16.7N 64.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 17.0N 66.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 17.3N 67.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 18.1N 69.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 20.0N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 22.0N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

https://i.imgur.com/aFAsB1p.gif

5am had Fiona crossing 60 at 1800z (1pm EST??) and she will cross @Noon? I know it's minor, but if Fiona is moving slightly faster than forecasted how does that impact near PR/Hispaniola?

Actually I think 18Z is 2PM EDT, so even a little faster

[skyline385]

Center is farther west of the convection now as shear increases. Fiona's intensity will pulse up and down as shear fluctuates. Recon got there at its peak, I think. May be a little weaker now.

INIT 16/0900Z 15.7N 58.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 15.9N 60.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 16.3N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 16.7N 64.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 17.0N 66.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 17.3N 67.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 18.1N 69.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 20.0N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 22.0N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

https://i.imgur.com/aFAsB1p.gif

5am had Fiona crossing 60 at 1800z (1pm EST??) and she will cross @Noon? I know it's minor, but if Fiona is moving slightly faster than forecasted how does that impact near PR/Hispaniola?

Not only that but it also isn't gaining latitude because its moving faster than the ridge weakening predicted by the GFS. For reference here is the 18 hr forecast for 06Z GFS and it seems to be way ahead of that

[caneseddy]

Now forecast to be a hurricane in 5 days

Based on this forecast, Fiona could be very near hurricane
strength as it approaches the southern coast of the Dominican
Republic. The terrain of Hispaniola is likely to disrupt Fiona's
circulation, but the global models suggest that Fiona shouldn't
have much trouble reorganizing itself once over the far
southwestern Atlantic, and the NHC forecast now calls for the
cyclone to become a hurricane by the end of the 5-day forecast
period

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/btangyWx/status/1570789431359184897

[SFLcane]

It's moving WNW now So those errors should improve.

[IsabelaWeather]

Will be interesting to see if it slams into DR or if it stays over water in the mona channel. Thats looking less likely now though.

[emeraldislenc]

It is moving a little north of due west not west north west according to the 11 am advisory.

[skyline385]

Its been a while since I have seen something this ugly on IR, meanwhile in the WPAC

[Sciencerocks]

[AnnularCane]

She looks much prettier on visible!

[sunnyday]

Friends in Florida said local t v met says to watch Fiona, but most indicators show that Florida should not be impacted.

[Nimbus]

Port Louis is experiencing Wind: 41km/h winds out of the north with about 2 inches of rain forecast.
Might escape the strongest winds out of the east as it passes.

[sunnyday]

Continuing my above post, does everyone agree that Florida is not in danger? I thought the path was still uncertain.