ATL: LEE - Models

[Hurricaneman]

Yikes

https://i.imgur.com/VzVqDzz.png

If this run verifies who gets the worst of Lee?

Nova Scotia with wind and rain over New England

[Tekken_Guy]

Yikes

https://i.imgur.com/VzVqDzz.png

If this run verifies who gets the worst of Lee?

Nova Scotia with wind and rain over New England

Good for us in Jersey at least.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

For anyone who's feeling "out of the woods" -- this was the some of the spaghetti models for Irma at a similar time frame we are looking at Lee at right now.

Lee is 10+ days away from any impacts to the CONUS. Don't underestimate how much this can change until then.

[Blown Away]

18Z ICON... Slight SW shift from 12z...

[SouthFLTropics]

Still a pretty big trough evident there on the 18z ICON. If it were to go out further, we should see Lee turn northward.

[SouthFLTropics]

Happy Hour GFS seems to be running a bit behind...

[Stratton23]

The ICON is not really a reliable model for upper level pattern/ steering, The euro is generally the best with upper air patterns and steering

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS is running on TT finally... Through 78 hours it has Lee a tick south of the 12z position.

[BobHarlem]

Slightly south at 120 hours on 18z GFS 22.1N vs 22.5N at 12Z and 3mb stronger on 18z.

peak strength frame on 18z gfs

[tolakram]

Ridge a little stronger.

[tolakram]

Trend

[pgoss11]

Yikes

https://i.imgur.com/VzVqDzz.png

Has the whole pattern changed? I thought there was an obvious escape route earlier.

[SconnieCane]

For anyone who's feeling "out of the woods" -- this was the some of the spaghetti models for Irma at a similar time frame we are looking at Lee at right now.

Lee is 10+ days away from any impacts to the CONUS. Don't underestimate how much this can change until then.

https://i.imgur.com/nD46qv7.jpg

I've also seen posts/tweets stating there was much greater agreement for a Florida impact with Irma at this range, with graphics; what gives?

[Meteorcane]

Heading into the long range (and thus venturing more into La-La land territory) the Great Lakes trough looks a bit more progressive... if it doesn't lift too quickly it may allow for the start of the recurve with this run

[tolakram]

A little further out this run.

[kevin]

For anyone who's feeling "out of the woods" -- this was the some of the spaghetti models for Irma at a similar time frame we are looking at Lee at right now.

Lee is 10+ days away from any impacts to the CONUS. Don't underestimate how much this can change until then.

https://i.imgur.com/nD46qv7.jpg

I've also seen posts/tweets stating there was much greater agreement for a Florida impact with Irma at this range, with graphics; what gives?

If you ever have the time I'd recommend to go through the Irma models thread. It's 510 pages, but easily one of the most interesting things in the Storm2k archive.
Yes, eventually about 150 hours in advance iirc a lot of the models started to zero down on Florida giving roughly a week warning. But if you look at models around August 31 / September 1 most were easily recurving and a sudden shift south by the Euro ignited the forum as people started the panic that the monster may be coming for the islands and a few runs later also for Florida.

[PavelGaborik10]

GFS sends a nuke into Nova Scotia.

The last thing Atlantic Canada needs is another potent cyclone, good thing this is 9-10 days out and unlikely to transpire.

[Stratton23]

18z GEFS members are interesting, we have a split now, a decent amount still go out to sea but now their is a new group of members that kind of just leave the system behind for a bit and doesn’t get pulled out to sea, kind of just lingers near or just north of the bahamas before getting pulled north eventually

[blp]

Wow check out the GEFS left behind.

[SouthFLTropics]

I won't take my eyes off of this thing until it is safely headed away into the North Atlantic. I've see this movie too many times and didn't like the ending. I'm not surprised at all by the split camp in the 18z GEFS. I suspect we haven't seen the last of this. I think the UKMET has been sniffing out a pattern change coming all along. Odds still favor it to head up and out, but at this point nothing is off of the table.