2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[tolakram]

GFS 12Z


Euro 0Z

[jlauderdal]

Will be interesting to see if the 12z Euro continues its solution of development near Bahamas and track west towards the FL/SE US. But it looks to have a hybrid subtropical look to it with it being so close to the ULL tracking west, possibly acquiring full tropical characteristics before coming inland, *if this comes to fruition.
Definitely has my attention.

https://media.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExcjFkZmt6a2ZrdWc5b3hjZXhuNjBvMnF3dW44ZWt6cXp1cXlpeWhzYSZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/Scsd4rAu5tU3XyI9M0/giphy.gif

Gfs is interested, weaker ridge but that will be sorted out later.

Actually thats a very strong ridge over the NE US thus a track west towards FL/SE US as it shows.

Near or at record heights, i was comparing to the euro, very suttle difference but clearly the they have the same idea.

[BobHarlem]

Origin is interesting from basically extreme southern remnants the big stream of moisture from this past week reorganizing while the majority shoots away.
12zgfs

0z euro

[OuterBanker]

Origin is interesting from basically extreme southern remnants the big stream of moisture from this past week reorganizing while the majority shoots away.
12zgfs
https://i.postimg.cc/N0v0z1QG/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh0-138.gif
0z euro
https://i.postimg.cc/prcTG4L3/ecmwf-z850-vort-watl-fh0-138.gif

A N Fl Ga landfall shows quite a few times in models. But, rarely happens. It will change.

[BobHarlem]

12z euro


then..

[skyline385]

12z euro
https://i.imgur.com/YolrFfR.png

then..

https://i.imgur.com/03MsznT.png

That would be quite a track for the first or second storm of the season if it verifies.

[Ivanhater]

Bridge over troubled waters.

Disturbance under high pressure with way boiling water. Models are trending stronger so definitely have to keep an eye on it.

[Hurricane2022]

12z euro
https://i.imgur.com/YolrFfR.png

then..

https://i.imgur.com/03MsznT.png

That would be quite a track for the first or second storm of the season if it verifies.

*getting 1992 vibes*

[Category5Kaiju]

12z euro
https://i.imgur.com/YolrFfR.png

then..

https://i.imgur.com/03MsznT.png

That would be quite a track for the first or second storm of the season if it verifies.

*getting 1992 vibes*

*Cough Cough* 1929

*Cough Cough* 1935

[AdamFirst]

Ah yes, a potential Atlantic storm threat coming from the east in...June. Yep. Put that one on the bingo card LOL

[skyline385]

12z euro
https://i.imgur.com/YolrFfR.png

then..

https://i.imgur.com/03MsznT.png

That would be quite a track for the first or second storm of the season if it verifies.

*getting 1992 vibes*

Andrew was in August and that was on par for August climo, a standard track for SE FL impact including passing through the Hebert box. Mid-June hit on SE FL into NOLA from a cut-off low doing a loop is just something else.

[zzzh]

The system will be stuck under the TUTT for ~4 days before upper level wind turns into easterlies. The upper level wind mainly dependents on upstream ULAC setup, i.e. a stronger gulf system would result in a stronger TUTT, which means less development. I think this system is very similar to Danny 2021.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET has TD at 150 just off GA that moves NNE to Tybee/lower SC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 15.06.2024

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 31.1N 81.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.06.2024 156 31.9N 80.9W 1012 24
1200UTC 22.06.2024 168 33.8N 80.3W 1014 25

[toad strangler]

That would be quite a track for the first or second storm of the season if it verifies.

*getting 1992 vibes*

Andrew was in August and that was on par for August climo, a standard track for SE FL impact including passing through the Hebert box. Mid-June hit on SE FL into NOLA from a cut-off low doing a loop is just something else.

That track in mid June by itself would be anomalous for sure when citing standard basin climatology. A depression or weak TS taking this anomalous track wouldn’t be so surprising. As long as nothing more comes of it.

[LarryWx]

*getting 1992 vibes*

Andrew was in August and that was on par for August climo, a standard track for SE FL impact including passing through the Hebert box. Mid-June hit on SE FL into NOLA from a cut-off low doing a loop is just something else.

That track in mid June by itself would be anomalous for sure when citing standard basin climatology. A depression or weak TS taking this anomalous track wouldn’t be so surprising. As long as nothing more comes of it.

agreed:
History of TC landfalls from the E or SE to SE US May-June:

- 1873 minimal TS GA/FL border 6/2
- 1909 low end TS Ft. Lauderdale 6/28
- 1972 minimal STS Alpha Brunswick 5/27
- 1984 TD 1 St. Augustine 6/13
- 2012 high end TS Beryl Jacksonville 5/28
- 2016 TD Bonnie Isle of Palms, SC 5/29
- 2020 50 mph TS Bertha Isle of Palms, SC 5/27

[wxman57]

The models are struggling to figure out what's happening in 2-3 days. Don't trust anything in the 7-12 day time frame.

[floridasun]

i am back was hospital for few weeks got new kindey was active on site doing off season of hurr season ok i was taking guys and ladys at hurricanetracker discord that gfs gone making ghost storm past few weeks we history of it doing that past we need see other major models come join gfs before we believe it

[skyline385]

Decent chances for a TD on EPS

[floridasun]

other thing i was told coming from ex 90l that round Bahamas area east of it

[skyline385]

Andrew was in August and that was on par for August climo, a standard track for SE FL impact including passing through the Hebert box. Mid-June hit on SE FL into NOLA from a cut-off low doing a loop is just something else.

That track in mid June by itself would be anomalous for sure when citing standard basin climatology. A depression or weak TS taking this anomalous track wouldn’t be so surprising. As long as nothing more comes of it.

agreed:
History of TC landfalls from the E or SE to SE US May-June:

- 1873 minimal TS GA/FL border 6/2
- 1909 low end TS Ft. Lauderdale 6/28
- 1972 minimal STS Alpha Brunswick 5/27
- 1984 TD 1 St. Augustine 6/13
- 2012 high end TS Beryl Jacksonville 5/28
- 2016 TD Bonnie Isle of Palms, SC 5/29
- 2020 50 mph TS Bertha Isle of Palms, SC 5/27

Think you guys are missing the part about how the cut off low does a loop on the 12z ECMWF and then impacts both Palm Beach county and then into NOLA in mid-June. TS Bertha 2020 is our standard SE coast spin off crashing into the coast.