StormWeather wrote:Blown Away wrote:At the point where the GFS run goes into August where we would expect conditions to hint towards development in the MDR & SW Atlantic… So far no indication of the “switch flipping”…
Well the switch doesn’t traditionally flip until around or after August 20th, usually. When August 20th gets into range in the model runs, you can probably expect signals to start showing themselves most likely.
The eps/gefs is showing the basin becoming more favorable shear-wise heading into the August, even if they aren't showing much in the way of development. So far, there's nothing that strikes me out of the ordinary about how the season is progressing.