Texas Fall 2025

[NDG]

New LRC with a big heat dome in the south central US, I wouldn't bank on much winter weather for TX this season. Might be one of those Fall/winters that FL might be cooler than TX at times.

[Stratton23]

Simply way too early to say that

[Nederlander]

Hi everyone! It's been a while. I've been working hard getting our weather company going. We recently launched an app on Apple and Google Play which is slowly gaining traction. We actually hit #5 briefly on Apple in the weather category. Weather has definitely been boring lately. Need the jet stream to dig south more to really get us into a more favorable pattern for rain and cooler air. I think we will see some changes as we get closer to November though. Seeing subtle hints of a potential pattern change. It would be nice to get some more active weather because that would reinforce the need for meteorologists in dynamic weather.

You’re just gonna waltz back in here, mention an app you’ve been working on, float that it’s available for download, and not even say what the name is?

For shame.

I don’t know captainbarbossa personally but based on location, my guess is it’s the Gulf Coast Weather Solutions app. I don’t think that is Greg Bostwick, but might be his son Lucas, who is also a met now. They led the team that developed the app.

[rwfromkansas]

New LRC with a big heat dome in the south central US, I wouldn't bank on much winter weather for TX this season. Might be one of those Fall/winters that FL might be cooler than TX at times.

If it is legitimate, the LRC pattern is only just setting up and goes through cycles, so you can’t say this at all. What you could say is there will be periods of warmer winter weather. That’s likely with La Niña anyway.

[Brent]

New LRC with a big heat dome in the south central US, I wouldn't bank on much winter weather for TX this season. Might be one of those Fall/winters that FL might be cooler than TX at times.

I'm not gonna argue it probably won't be a warmer winter(I mean there's very few years it stays cold even up here) but like is this gonna be like all the hurricanes they predicted

[Stratton23]

GFS again with a big cold front right around halloween, it only seems right that halloween is chilly, whenever i picture halloween day/ night, i always picture it with cold weather, warm temperatures dont really add to the spookiness of the holiday for me lol

[rwfromkansas]

How is Siberian snow cover? Is that not updated due to the shutdown?

[Stratton23]

I believe siberian snow cover is still running above normal despite some recent warm ups occuring

[Yukon Cornelius]

I think it might have been said, but this pattern SUCKS. At least we’re having lows in the mid 50s, which is the only good thing about it.

[Ralph's Weather]

Nice early Fall morning with temps in the 50s across E TX. Lowest I saw was 50 with scattered low 50s in cold spots.

[Brent]

I think it might have been said, but this pattern SUCKS. At least we’re having lows in the mid 50s, which is the only good thing about it.

Right? I'm so tired of this pattern

And like we should have been stepping down earlier than this

Maybe it's good we don't waste the cold now and save it for winter(even that is a huge question mark I've still seen some horrible analogs) but yikes otherwise

I'm just hoping we get one good storm at this point

[Yukon Cornelius]

I think it might have been said, but this pattern SUCKS. At least we’re having lows in the mid 50s, which is the only good thing about it.

Right? I'm so tired of this pattern

And like we should have been stepping down earlier than this

Maybe it's good we don't waste the cold now and save it for winter(even that is a huge question mark I've still seen some horrible analogs) but yikes otherwise

I'm just hoping we get one good storm at this point

From what I’ve been seeing from forecasters and meteorologists is the typical doom and gloom La Niña stuff, “so it’s gonna be warm”. However, our coldest temps and best snows lately have been in La Niña winters.

[wxman22]

It's going to finally feel more like Fall starting this weekend and next week.As multiple fronts move into the state. While saying that there will still be brief warm ups between fronts, and I'm not sure if the fronts are going to make it into the southern half of the state yet.

[cstrunk]

GFS/Euro go "poof" for the Thurs/Fri system next week that has been there for the last few days.

Glancing chance at storms for NE TX Saturday night. Maybe some sprinkles next week. Last few GFS runs don't show any significant rain for TX. Euro pushed meaningful rain out to the 28th-ish.

Not good.

[Cpv17]

I think it might have been said, but this pattern SUCKS. At least we’re having lows in the mid 50s, which is the only good thing about it.

Right? I'm so tired of this pattern

And like we should have been stepping down earlier than this

Maybe it's good we don't waste the cold now and save it for winter(even that is a huge question mark I've still seen some horrible analogs) but yikes otherwise

I'm just hoping we get one good storm at this point

Maybe up there it’s been different, but down here for the past several years now I don’t recall any significant cooldowns till late October. Mid 80’s to lower 90’s have been pretty common here in October for several years now from what I can recall.

[Ntxw]

I think it might have been said, but this pattern SUCKS. At least we’re having lows in the mid 50s, which is the only good thing about it.

Right? I'm so tired of this pattern

And like we should have been stepping down earlier than this

Maybe it's good we don't waste the cold now and save it for winter(even that is a huge question mark I've still seen some horrible analogs) but yikes otherwise

I'm just hoping we get one good storm at this point

From what I’ve been seeing from forecasters and meteorologists is the typical doom and gloom La Niña stuff, “so it’s gonna be warm”. However, our coldest temps and best snows lately have been in La Niña winters.

ENSO hasn't been a great overall temperature forecast for some years now. You've had La Ninas behaving like El Ninos, El Ninos behaving like La Ninas, the warming gradient of the extratropics and tropics have changed what we perceived in the past. For example a weak La Nina in actual water temperatures may compare to what a weak El Nino was say in 1980 for example since the 30 year average is up (26.5C was +0.5 above normal back then but is -0.5C below normal now..again just illustration not actuals). In some ways the weak to moderate Ninas have behaved similar to to the weak-mod Ninos like 2020-2021 and last year.

Still though if you bet for the aggregate in terms of warmer than normal for the season you'll be right most of the time. Precipitation in the cold seasons tends to follow well the ENSO state still.

[Ntxw]

I think it might have been said, but this pattern SUCKS. At least we’re having lows in the mid 50s, which is the only good thing about it.

Right? I'm so tired of this pattern

And like we should have been stepping down earlier than this

Maybe it's good we don't waste the cold now and save it for winter(even that is a huge question mark I've still seen some horrible analogs) but yikes otherwise

I'm just hoping we get one good storm at this point

Maybe up there it’s been different, but down here for the past several years now I don’t recall any significant cooldowns till late October. Mid 80’s to lower 90’s have been pretty common here in October for several years now from what I can recall.

I think it is more the persistence that has bothered most. Even last year and the warm Octobers around this period of mid October DFW would typically see upper 40s come into play at least. Nowhere close for the foreseeable future, and not in mid October. It's the sustained with no breaks which is taxing if you're expecting at least some relief, even in precipitation cooled days.

[Stratton23]

lots of changes in the pacific going on with models but still not where we want it just yet , I still think around halloween is when we see a pattern change, aleutian trough patterns with a pacific jet extension are hard to break as we have seen the past several years, But i do think with the MJO progressing toward 4/5 that we should start to see an erosion of the pesky Aleutian trough replaced by more north pacific ridging , whether that extends poleward into alaska remains to be seen, but i do see arguable hints in the ensembles of a pattern change

[TomballEd]

GFS/Euro go "poof" for the Thurs/Fri system next week that has been there for the last few days.

Glancing chance at storms for NE TX Saturday night. Maybe some sprinkles next week. Last few GFS runs don't show any significant rain for TX. Euro pushed meaningful rain out to the 28th-ish.

Not good.

Much of the I-35 corridor is back to extreme drought. A dry but breezy frontal passage would cause a fire risk.

[wxman22]

The NAM shows the first 40's of the season this weekend. Better late than never I guess...