NATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

The system continues to tick more and more offshore. QPF estimates have been dialed back along the east coast...we have had a day of encouraging trends.

[GCANE]

Vortex message from AF303
Center Fix Coordinates: 22.16N 76.27W

5PM EDT NHC
LOCATION...22.2N 76.5W

[emeraldislenc]

I think until and if a center forms it is difficult to predict the path of the storm!

[floridasun]

Vortex message from AF303
Center Fix Coordinates: 22.16N 76.27W

5PM EDT NHC
LOCATION...22.2N 76.5W

that more nw movement or west don't have hurr map next to me?

[GCANE]

If this wasn't so serious I would be laughing.
Latest Euro has it back tracking and making landfall in North Carolina.

One thing the models complete ignore and can't model is eyewall replacement cycles.
One is due for Humberto in the next 24hrs due to its rapid intensification and near Cat 5 strength.

[GCANE]

Vortex message from AF303
Center Fix Coordinates: 22.16N 76.27W

5PM EDT NHC
LOCATION...22.2N 76.5W

that more nw movement or west don't have hurr map next to me?

Its 13 nm SE of forecast track if you can really call that a surface low.
Looks like AF303 bugged out. Nothing to see here.

[floridasun]

Vortex message from AF303
Center Fix Coordinates: 22.16N 76.27W

5PM EDT NHC
LOCATION...22.2N 76.5W

that more nw movement or west don't have hurr map next to me?

Its 13 nm SE of forecast track if you can really call that a surface low.

that mean relocation more east of last postion and mean stay bit more east of Florida and usa coastline

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Afternoon everyone,

Been watching but not overly concerned. At this time it is still disorganized, but also curious , with the warnings from Broward county north for the coastal areas, why nothing in the northeren Florida Keys?

[floridasun]

Afternoon everyone,

Been watching but not overly concerned. At this time it is still disorganized, but also curious , with the warnings from Broward county north for the coastal areas, why nothing in the northeren Florida Keys?

because were make turn bit close central fl for now

[floridasun]

plus key west too far west of 9td

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thank you for the responses, I am actually in north Key Largo.

[GCANE]

Big time pop up in LL Vort just north of the Yucatan.
Then there is Humberto.
Guess which one TD9 will do the Fujiwhara dance with.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... g8vor5.GIF

[GCANE]

Latest track guidance.
About as uncertain as it can get,
Wait until the split moves farther south and Humberto does an EWRC.

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 271800.png

[GCANE]

More high-altitude recon.
Miss Piggy and Kermit will need an overhaul after this one.

[Coolcruiseman]

Maybe 50/50

Watching that front closely in the GOM, and somewhat Humberto as well.
This will be a last minute thing if it makes landfall.
Are you in Florida?

Yes, us on east coast Florida, south and Central are glued to this system. We know how the uncertainty goes. We also like to ask questions to individuals, which do great work on here, their expert opinions on stuff we can’t grasp. We are all on different levels of knowledge. Thanks for all your info you put out. You actually gave us the heads up on tornadic activity from Hurricane Milton last year (I’m not too far from the devastating tornados that landed in central Florida)

Stay safe my friend.
I'll keep the posts going.
My wife is in Europe and I got plenty of cigars.
Pizza is a few minutes away.

Being in the Melbourne area, appreciate the knowledgeable insights you and others provide

[GCANE]

Anticyclone just formed in the Windward Passage

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... wg8shr.GIF

[GCANE]

I know this is hard to make out.
Cuba and TD9 is just about in the middle.
If you look hard enough you will see it.
This is TPW, what feeds a tropical cyclone.
There is a river from the East Pacific flowing thru Panama straight into TD9.
Its the red.

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 272100.png

[cycloneye]

Getting stronger winds from NOAA plane.

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 38kt at 23:01z

Minimum Extrap. Pressure: 1004.3mb at 22:21z

[GCANE]

I think I said this before and sorry if I am a little out of line.
This close in high-altitude recon has minimal benefit at this point.
They need to send planes into the GoM.

[GCANE]

Latest Vortex Message from NOAA2, 3 min ago has 1006mb
22.37N 76.39W

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... YCLONE.png


Eye drop looks saturated.
It maybe starting uo.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... 7-2222.png