2026 ENSO Updates

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cycloneye
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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates

#361 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 22, 2026 5:37 pm

The deep waters heat content are very warm.

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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates

#362 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 23, 2026 8:50 am

CPC 3/23/26 weekly update has niño 3.4 at -0.6C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

The latest weekly
SST departures are:
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.6ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 +1.2ºC
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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates

#363 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Mar 23, 2026 10:05 am

Kingarabian wrote:Per the CFS, it has a combination of a slow moving MJO in phase 7/8 and an equatorial Rossby wave that is aiding and prolonging this WWB event.


 https://x.com/webberweather/status/2035526071064662360

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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates

#364 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 24, 2026 5:45 am

Boom.

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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates

#365 Postby WaveBreaking » Tue Mar 24, 2026 11:31 am

There’s a burst of TC activity in both the WPAC and the SPAC at the end of the latest EPS and GEFS runs that coincides with a WWB.
Let’s see if this sticks around or is just a one-off thing.


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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates

#366 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Mar 24, 2026 2:40 pm

:uarrow: Been on guidance for a few days now and probably needed for super scenarios to verify.
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Re: 2026 ENSO Updates

#367 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Tue Mar 24, 2026 2:55 pm

Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: Been on guidance for a few days now and probably needed for super scenarios to verify.

Operational GFS showing it in the longer range:
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