Invest 97L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[wxwatcher91]

bump: hey I know Katrina is big news but dont forget our good ol friend 97L

looks like it has begun a northwest to northwest track.. although it has done some jogging throughout today and it could be doing one now...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON
THURSDAY...AS IT MOVES TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC.


530pm TWD gives us something to think about... now potential for TD tomorrow (instead of "the next one or two days" )

keep watchin this one...

[WeatherEmperor]

Gosh I feel so ashamed of myself. I almost forgot about 97L.

<RICKY>

[Brent]

Fish.

Next.

[krysof]

I don't know if it will be a fish. There's nothing in its way.

[gkrangers]

Fish.

Next.

I agree. But might as well get a name out of it...just to add to the tally..

[wxwatcher91]

24/2345 UTC 17.4N 42.5W T1.0/1.0 97

[caribepr]

Fish.

Next.

You know Brent...sometimes you're just about smackable Betcha never heard that before huh?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The darn thing had 40 to 45 knot winds with a few areas of 50 knots. This look pretty good low level wise. Its a sheared tropical storm so t numbers are nearly worstless. But I guest they went to see a stacked system.

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972005) ON 20050825 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050825 0000 050825 1200 050826 0000 050826 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.4N 42.4W 18.1N 43.8W 18.9N 44.9W 19.8N 46.1W
BAMM 17.4N 42.4W 18.2N 44.0W 18.9N 45.2W 19.6N 46.4W
A98E 17.4N 42.4W 17.4N 44.2W 17.8N 45.7W 18.5N 47.1W
LBAR 17.4N 42.4W 17.9N 43.9W 18.6N 45.4W 19.4N 47.2W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050827 0000 050828 0000 050829 0000 050830 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.0N 47.6W 23.6N 50.7W 26.0N 52.9W 27.7N 52.4W
BAMM 20.5N 47.9W 22.5N 51.0W 23.7N 54.1W 24.2N 57.4W
A98E 19.6N 48.4W 21.7N 52.0W 24.3N 55.2W 26.2N 56.7W
LBAR 21.4N 49.1W 26.0N 52.0W 30.7N 51.5W 32.2N 47.4W
SHIP 56KTS 68KTS 70KTS 71KTS
DSHP 56KTS 68KTS 70KTS 71KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.4N LONCUR = 42.4W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 17.6N LONM12 = 40.6W DIRM12 = 266DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 17.5N LONM24 = 39.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



00:00z Models

[LAwxrgal]

With Kat being the big news (and closer to home) we forgot about good ole 97L. I think the NHC is rightfully concentrating on the closer storm.

[jrod]

I think this area could be called a depression. I gues the NHC is concentrating on the current threat and want to make sure they won't have a repeat of TD10.

[Marilyn]

Fish.

Next.

Now thats Funny

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its kind of hard to call something a depression. If it has 45 to 50 knot winds based on quickscats.

[cjrciadt]

Its kind of hard to call something a depression. If it has 45 to 50 knot winds based on quickscats.

It has stayed organized all day since this morning. It maybe just called a TS for its first advisory tomorrow. (Lee)

[cycloneye]

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AS IT MOVES TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.

10:30 PM TWO.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yet another system getting riped apart by 30 knot shear. I don't understand where they get this is a wave from. Because Quickscats show a clearly a LLC. You can also see it on satellite. With 40 knots with a few areas of 50 knots.

[btangy]

It looks as good as some sheared TSs I've seen in the past. I guess once it gets named, there's a new standard before advisories are discontinued. That's just how it works.

Classifying the genesis points of storms has always been very subjective, which is problematic because it makes record keeping of genesis points hard to trust. Good thing about the reanalysis project is that it attempts to remove some of this subjectivity. So, if this storm becomes Lee, there's a good chance in reanalysis, the genesis point will be extended further back in time.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah quickscats been showing 45 to 50 knot winds with this system. In a LLC...What more doe's it need to become a tropical cyclone? I'v never thought that the convection had to be right over the LLC. This is a normal sheared system. Arlene/Alison many more...I don't get it?

When is this shear going to die down?

[baitism]

Still looks to be tracking due west. I would imagine the longer it stays sheared and disorganized the less of a chance it will be a fish.

[Hurricaneman]

I think that too, Ill keep my eyes on this one soon