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cycloneye
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#361 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 16, 2005 1:44 pm

16/1745 UTC 11.6N 53.0W T1.0/1.0 95 -- Atlantic Ocean

Position of SSD is a bit north than this mornings one.
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Anonymous

#362 Postby Anonymous » Fri Sep 16, 2005 1:46 pm

cycloneye wrote:16/1745 UTC 11.6N 53.0W T1.0/1.0 95 -- Atlantic Ocean


Position of SSD is a bit north than this mornings one.


Badabing
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#363 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 16, 2005 1:50 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL952005) ON 20050916 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050916 1800 050917 0600 050917 1800 050918 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.6N 53.0W 12.4N 54.5W 13.3N 55.7W 14.2N 56.6W
BAMM 11.6N 53.0W 12.4N 54.6W 13.4N 55.9W 14.2N 56.9W
A98E 11.6N 53.0W 12.8N 55.0W 13.5N 57.0W 14.3N 58.5W
LBAR 11.6N 53.0W 12.6N 54.9W 13.6N 56.9W 14.6N 58.7W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 41KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 41KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050918 1800 050919 1800 050920 1800 050921 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.0N 57.3W 16.5N 58.4W 18.0N 59.2W 19.6N 59.9W
BAMM 14.9N 57.6W 15.7N 59.0W 16.5N 60.4W 17.6N 61.8W
A98E 15.2N 59.5W 17.0N 61.8W 18.8N 64.1W 20.9N 65.8W
LBAR 15.6N 60.3W 16.9N 63.2W 18.2N 65.4W 20.1N 66.6W
SHIP 62KTS 78KTS 86KTS 92KTS
DSHP 62KTS 78KTS 86KTS 92KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.6N LONCUR = 53.0W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 10.0N LONM12 = 51.5W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 9.5N LONM24 = 48.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
18:00z Models.
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Derek Ortt

#364 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Sep 16, 2005 1:51 pm

its currently in 30KT of shear and only has a small window of low shear.

There is very little low-level inflow; therefore, the convection is not going to persist for long
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#365 Postby nequad » Fri Sep 16, 2005 2:04 pm

Looks to me like there is some weak banding taking place....that's a positive for development. But I agree...the shear is quite hostile.
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#366 Postby Florida_TSR » Fri Sep 16, 2005 2:07 pm

What shear?? This should be a depression within 24 hours.
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#367 Postby nequad » Fri Sep 16, 2005 2:12 pm

^ take a look at satellite imagery in motion. You can clearly see the higher clouds moving off to the NE over the system.
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#368 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 16, 2005 2:16 pm

Regardless of what happens to this system if it develops or not plenty of rain will be the rule for the Windaward, Leeward islands and also the BVI,USVI and Puerto Rico this weekend with some squally weather embedded.
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#369 Postby Anonymous » Fri Sep 16, 2005 2:20 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:its currently in 30KT of shear and only has a small window of low shear.

There is very little low-level inflow; therefore, the convection is not going to persist for long


We will see...
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#370 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Sep 16, 2005 2:24 pm

will this take care of the shear for this system.

Image
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Anonymous

#371 Postby Anonymous » Fri Sep 16, 2005 2:26 pm

southfloridawx2005 wrote:will this take care of the shear for this system.

Image


LOL Didn't work for me. It's simple...the system is getting better organized, the shear is still there...but decreasing.
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#372 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Sep 16, 2005 2:33 pm

Image
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#373 Postby skysummit » Fri Sep 16, 2005 2:35 pm

That's the tendency over the past 24 hours.....does that mean it'll do the same in the next 24 hours?
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#374 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Sep 16, 2005 3:12 pm

wow

:eek:

Image
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#375 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Sep 16, 2005 3:13 pm

Image
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Canelaw99
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#376 Postby Canelaw99 » Fri Sep 16, 2005 3:14 pm

EDIT: I had to check my other browser as my AOL had not updated the graphics yet. :wink:
Last edited by Canelaw99 on Fri Sep 16, 2005 3:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#377 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Sep 16, 2005 3:15 pm

Canelaw99 wrote:oy - thanks southflorida, really, thanks so much LOL


? :?:
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#378 Postby jasons2k » Fri Sep 16, 2005 3:15 pm

That's one heckuva a shift. Prob. will change many times until we have a defined LLC. I'm more concerned with the PR system right now.
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#379 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri Sep 16, 2005 3:19 pm

no it's the LOL at the end that got me... I couldn't tell if you thought I was being very energetic about it or what it was. I mean if it was a geniuine thanks... then my bad... LOL
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#380 Postby msbee » Fri Sep 16, 2005 3:20 pm

BAMD 15.0N 57.3W 16.5N 58.4W 18.0N 59.2W 19.6N 59.9W
A98E 15.2N 59.5W 17.0N 61.8W 18.8N 64.1W 20.9N 65.8W
LBAR 15.6N 60.3W 16.9N 63.2W 18.2N 65.4W 20.1N 66.6W

that's very close to us in 96 hours!
:-(
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